r2_oos_vs_trainmean,r2_oos_vs_zero,rmse,mae,hit_rate,hit_ci_lo,hit_ci_hi,n,corr,spec,year,model
0.20150080224815525,0.2231759011072274,0.5489843935963441,0.2863999796069782,0.6967213114754098,0.6363626268595248,0.7509817684518871,244,0.4690727937511042,gap,2016,OLS core
0.2122925233629439,0.23367468313994655,0.5452620102322432,0.2801398599009477,0.7254098360655737,0.6662420944480615,0.7775900251795981,244,0.47744727347660737,gap,2016,OLS full
0.21451030857522158,0.2358322670222046,0.5444938783843708,0.2795615409384588,0.7254098360655737,0.6662420944480615,0.7775900251795981,244,0.47348857091226454,gap,2016,Ridge (full)
0.22952537595511557,0.25043975344177805,0.5392646178097178,0.2767894941996688,0.7254098360655737,0.6662420944480615,0.7775900251795981,244,0.4846661967955085,gap,2016,Lasso (full)
0.2294461575854424,0.25036268543869133,0.5392923400503244,0.27666278602980937,0.7254098360655737,0.6662420944480615,0.7775900251795981,244,0.48372163667391754,gap,2016,ElasticNet (full)
0.20031893783827082,0.22202611816717333,0.5493905212499649,0.29011688157829935,0.7172131147540983,0.6576774212981801,0.7700153485248374,244,0.4559656541417574,gap,2016,GBM (full)
0.0,0.027144797289837985,0.614359752169726,0.3600829328945686,0.6762295081967213,0.6151798653158278,0.7318161554839788,244,,gap,2016,Baseline: train mean
0.291528607127724,0.42179775097199,0.26667668825429813,0.17670992122260681,0.7741935483870968,0.7182030933561769,0.8218191914449493,248,0.5351322520912007,gap,2017,OLS core
0.2293966577394292,0.3710902231391999,0.27812455788894824,0.19011476826724785,0.782258064516129,0.7267992707801298,0.8291060223975,248,0.49533981626751666,gap,2017,OLS full
0.25385075957095804,0.3910478626701711,0.27367601938935326,0.18481793849137423,0.7782258064516129,0.7224977695029425,0.8254660194864355,248,0.5084337278776929,gap,2017,Ridge (full)
0.2841553074483565,0.41578020601497523,0.2680607932844444,0.17862638219568192,0.7903225806451613,0.7354232882148144,0.8363650133393192,248,0.5346626626604161,gap,2017,Lasso (full)
0.2836103729519719,0.4153354705541614,0.26816280408762094,0.1785888809607601,0.7903225806451613,0.7354232882148144,0.8363650133393192,248,0.5346657139844734,gap,2017,ElasticNet (full)
0.21921086313293126,0.3627773266569051,0.27995664158460815,0.1934517287885618,0.7701612903225806,0.7139151150986857,0.8181656655141886,248,0.5022126988876494,gap,2017,GBM (full)
0.0,0.1838735411970983,0.3168282465632284,0.22547750408838746,0.75,0.6925716187367368,0.7998016409348783,248,1.4411079740846733e-18,gap,2017,Baseline: train mean
0.5566349005719459,0.5686678877079332,0.3488075036234382,0.2440067415319975,0.8163265306122449,0.7630853648958278,0.859801194018325,245,0.7473882787416557,gap,2018,OLS core
0.5155115993635484,0.528660678305292,0.364625266161444,0.24972769075153173,0.7959183673469388,0.7410669960185823,0.8416333332882058,245,0.7201161433357945,gap,2018,OLS full
0.533238989229329,0.5459069444775642,0.35789229861891986,0.24573888059356036,0.7918367346938775,0.7366870987178578,0.8379759846674573,245,0.7310156182975727,gap,2018,Ridge (full)
0.5402201408474954,0.5526986267222409,0.35520579189974044,0.2380111603792584,0.8122448979591836,0.7586652207023615,0.8561840922903182,245,0.7362396335793913,gap,2018,Lasso (full)
0.541114849311283,0.5535690526805965,0.35486001730661487,0.23687457418831967,0.8122448979591836,0.7586652207023615,0.8561840922903182,245,0.7373904759214865,gap,2018,ElasticNet (full)
0.4701329124922372,0.4845135749665477,0.3813190824884948,0.2558337246512238,0.8367346938775511,0.7853203998037219,0.8777523887177956,245,0.6854479254542226,gap,2018,GBM (full)
0.0,0.02714013157894024,0.5238477310871494,0.33081959075178413,0.7061224489795919,0.646251931125524,0.7596289879088595,245,1.1427823098429728e-16,gap,2018,Baseline: train mean
-0.22319444440389113,-0.06890156391761004,0.4119831169964047,0.2576934230395656,0.7219917012448133,0.6622829698128737,0.7747345210784863,241,0.2818710639658507,gap,2019,OLS core
-0.22091860685046694,-0.06691279890056223,0.4115996770699227,0.25661935494582916,0.7136929460580913,0.6536200419434826,0.767060346484649,241,0.2876305685268415,gap,2019,OLS full
-0.19765979070334838,-0.04658783334151484,0.4076602849394342,0.25358173258286526,0.7053941908713693,0.6449799797234598,0.7593633062414434,241,0.2824611525188657,gap,2019,Ridge (full)
-0.1398428182794893,0.003936147148735136,0.39769868295783734,0.24641183974177872,0.7302904564315352,0.6709693720878116,0.7823852212667768,241,0.28893078282158097,gap,2019,Lasso (full)
-0.13567492010563553,0.0075783096002272066,0.396970913474474,0.2458244825023827,0.7344398340248963,0.6753215805264399,0.7862015640597628,241,0.2880848277493052,gap,2019,ElasticNet (full)
-0.18499219735252215,-0.035518121239961564,0.4054986516874407,0.2552966363645987,0.7302904564315352,0.6709693720878116,0.7823852212667768,241,0.30424792749485663,gap,2019,GBM (full)
0.0,0.12613929142024027,0.37250462485540675,0.24855015822325016,0.7095435684647303,0.6492971887635487,0.7632146484329688,241,1.0693453333558375e-16,gap,2019,Baseline: train mean
0.3636043833208873,0.37335506081046743,1.0557432595357403,0.6013647740355567,0.8064516129032258,0.7527595420039506,0.8507947763031904,248,0.7020149946647187,gap,2020,OLS core
0.37708290464772976,0.38662706796428603,1.0445033865064228,0.5967584148191508,0.8104838709677419,0.7571129405780711,0.8543828819173217,248,0.7169823274510005,gap,2020,OLS full
0.36407329516951403,0.3738167881215405,1.0553542391406663,0.6015169982878574,0.8104838709677419,0.7571129405780711,0.8543828819173217,248,0.7079877010655636,gap,2020,Ridge (full)
0.3345730476009775,0.3447685351808183,1.0795553679974845,0.6239032492014985,0.8064516129032258,0.7527595420039506,0.8507947763031904,248,0.7042953165016707,gap,2020,Lasso (full)
0.32797154717335464,0.3382681811155054,1.0848971240758196,0.6253200186438977,0.8064516129032258,0.7527595420039506,0.8507947763031904,248,0.7014177317377305,gap,2020,ElasticNet (full)
0.26499163539460424,0.2762532301126971,1.1345950075182007,0.6227400898680312,0.8225806451612904,0.770222519869884,0.8650978151902646,248,0.6223216295766345,gap,2020,GBM (full)
0.0,0.015321723208060134,1.3234109615042244,0.7658043298224065,0.7137096774193549,0.6545272157587936,0.7663725062185549,248,,gap,2020,Baseline: train mean
0.32067432824584263,0.38758401625819083,0.4357243958815953,0.33093896894907415,0.7543859649122807,0.6946024278760046,0.8057394893550902,228,0.5741092963414798,gap,2021,OLS core
0.3678521170834326,0.43011506309339986,0.42032208222222045,0.3211497983437016,0.75,0.6899657235157823,0.8017496089354659,228,0.6131445666775085,gap,2021,OLS full
0.35934804151581223,0.4224485902643801,0.4231398639141242,0.32279363841309117,0.7587719298245614,0.699246699995786,0.8097218020151553,228,0.6069112800966573,gap,2021,Ridge (full)
0.3659038099146754,0.428358653022359,0.4209693093462291,0.3217224359604598,0.75,0.6899657235157823,0.8017496089354659,228,0.6118146734612252,gap,2021,Lasso (full)
0.3659016879622716,0.42835674007011404,0.42097001371577475,0.32172306621102587,0.75,0.6899657235157823,0.8017496089354659,228,0.6118131710430711,gap,2021,ElasticNet (full)
0.3526656596750257,0.41642438476336285,0.425340939684554,0.3115351450410471,0.7675438596491229,0.7085585016417292,0.8176631699289051,228,0.5905937066713259,gap,2021,GBM (full)
0.0,0.09849427276842593,0.5286556316164579,0.38761985023751006,0.7280701754385965,0.6668913455532326,0.7816910629987834,228,1.253683446896655e-16,gap,2021,Baseline: train mean
0.44668655759698206,0.4380027250895471,0.5626898531914404,0.40830252802644806,0.7886178861788617,0.7333589743358339,0.8350014597981598,246,0.690206765359898,gap,2022,OLS core
0.4407865950108989,0.43201016709013873,0.5656818698665348,0.41136048035467504,0.7967479674796748,0.7420779061421137,0.8422926810660769,246,0.69595563844674,gap,2022,OLS full
0.46492539107565545,0.4565278031502641,0.5533381891324575,0.40170634515150533,0.7845528455284553,0.7290105758371569,0.8313447817597382,246,0.7068503196973541,gap,2022,Ridge (full)
0.4450879617992888,0.43637904054993926,0.5635021096804234,0.4096460546751016,0.7926829268292683,0.7377146994617786,0.8386508112093137,246,0.697740110815396,gap,2022,Lasso (full)
0.4450929169462544,0.43638407346415764,0.5634995937483385,0.4096440587083945,0.7926829268292683,0.7377146994617786,0.8386508112093137,246,0.6977425301436051,gap,2022,ElasticNet (full)
0.5263249061142476,0.5188909367525356,0.5206234766915193,0.3692112391530096,0.8048780487804879,0.7508274235274792,0.8495533167549085,246,0.7241609578230067,gap,2022,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.015694237374247466,0.7564556536767179,0.5569510300935385,0.6056910569105691,0.5434460081978387,0.6646859817667223,246,,gap,2022,Baseline: train mean
-0.0835645821403026,0.057454164170727795,0.34122379916969214,0.2496297170056801,0.7306122448979592,0.6718160947654831,0.782288299797738,245,0.583018733890935,gap,2023,OLS core
-0.13235060075813365,0.015017322423742874,0.3488207977388829,0.25627774129268277,0.7428571428571429,0.6846754548278665,0.7935406774997734,245,0.5782041401554711,gap,2023,OLS full
-0.06304181470668158,0.07530602948921561,0.3379769539039913,0.24858369411916292,0.7387755102040816,0.6803830613448638,0.7897958250613031,245,0.5876792832254466,gap,2023,Ridge (full)
-0.0530926515155028,0.08396037505421028,0.336391648135924,0.24670616086121325,0.7591836734693878,0.7019065899136474,0.8084585260998842,245,0.5881372199390656,gap,2023,Lasso (full)
0.0017343465526101776,0.13165200282783585,0.32751785273566636,0.23957142786897664,0.7510204081632653,0.6932785150268055,0.8010121091437803,245,0.5942929093025361,gap,2023,ElasticNet (full)
0.21064110805997394,0.3133709343809613,0.2912387553244311,0.21133544482211078,0.7591836734693878,0.7019065899136474,0.8084585260998842,245,0.5936147160155443,gap,2023,GBM (full)
0.0,0.1301433699802962,0.3278022374347984,0.24461575787360573,0.689795918367347,0.6293174178802928,0.744414517468199,245,-4.840470043516799e-17,gap,2023,Baseline: train mean
0.21249201849724786,0.24411915616493252,0.4121175734248823,0.2818215262522543,0.7272727272727273,0.6679366949257715,0.7795061429408439,242,0.5036258761443365,gap,2024,OLS core
0.21152274222957534,0.2431888070379059,0.4123711155821553,0.27867747233547147,0.7396694214876033,0.6809435134265561,0.7909052974146017,242,0.5021207608483307,gap,2024,OLS full
0.22129913522925537,0.2525725699505813,0.40980663014065916,0.27415487034908503,0.731404958677686,0.6722662772975301,0.7833118848939327,242,0.5039623463864952,gap,2024,Ridge (full)
0.22686957897539095,0.25791929889589293,0.40833822162370764,0.2746415598149968,0.7355371900826446,0.6766018542536455,0.7871116322626649,242,0.506602591223584,gap,2024,Lasso (full)
0.2411834124698401,0.2716582739849487,0.4045405493563565,0.27010815297894036,0.7272727272727273,0.6679366949257715,0.7795061429408439,242,0.5112677567911069,gap,2024,ElasticNet (full)
0.28662604382200596,0.3152758821100303,0.3922403583352408,0.2560918337632885,0.7355371900826446,0.6766018542536455,0.7871116322626649,242,0.5418124852042058,gap,2024,GBM (full)
0.0,0.04016103761555867,0.4644015407662993,0.3031969479168331,0.6570247933884298,0.5951811079145737,0.7139612164296332,242,1.7157217581152623e-16,gap,2024,Baseline: train mean
0.41896412563891205,0.40737868200302296,0.40139663765614386,0.27619541470556813,0.6816326530612244,0.6208811574975059,0.7367762860080398,245,0.6709917307047304,gap,2025,OLS core
0.4355117062339705,0.4242562096301906,0.3956395748886947,0.27190700817160063,0.6775510204081633,0.6166705866131843,0.7329496109708886,245,0.6813130363970149,gap,2025,OLS full
0.43042732605021494,0.41907045050816016,0.3974173555012946,0.27212152729974576,0.689795918367347,0.6293174178802928,0.744414517468199,245,0.6775877092737671,gap,2025,Ridge (full)
0.4285337570220522,0.4171391250552834,0.39807742295793797,0.2729462662057103,0.7061224489795919,0.646251931125524,0.7596289879088595,245,0.6762887722899605,gap,2025,Lasso (full)
0.430323506091256,0.4189645604527822,0.39745357385886,0.27016783031451724,0.710204081632653,0.650498816740086,0.7634193482157703,245,0.6745287795538206,gap,2025,ElasticNet (full)
0.3966315694054169,0.3846008304221915,0.40903789822481534,0.2618215770921921,0.7183673469387755,0.6590089454818235,0.7709837113169786,245,0.6429764316456437,gap,2025,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.019939291439841966,0.5265895743696501,0.2881340393887137,0.5877551020408164,0.5252260827309048,0.6475747045807636,245,2.613156628737906e-17,gap,2025,Baseline: train mean
0.43992553453447747,0.4244199884311214,0.5797444542683614,0.3622048816467478,0.7180851063829787,0.6499001696749764,0.7775361128891687,188,0.7078562839634369,gap,2026,OLS core
0.40968931835371336,0.3933466888393288,0.5951878229622296,0.37279679170216456,0.7180851063829787,0.6499001696749764,0.7775361128891687,188,0.6888702529597713,gap,2026,OLS full
0.41093380146591707,0.3946256252099132,0.5945601094438911,0.3740930930592763,0.723404255319149,0.6554748770045097,0.7823866807441268,188,0.6899482089866564,gap,2026,Ridge (full)
0.41711861679436124,0.40098166587557427,0.5914306244491508,0.37478357128631473,0.723404255319149,0.6554748770045097,0.7823866807441268,188,0.6971936117283591,gap,2026,Lasso (full)
0.4072959795309371,0.3908870909246893,0.5963931587611077,0.3747057382800463,0.7127659574468085,0.6443361565846333,0.7726748507950203,188,0.6964214719951638,gap,2026,ElasticNet (full)
0.4099045344906027,0.3935678631905958,0.5950793159461283,0.36722528321766146,0.6968085106382979,0.6277065790189308,0.7580286028072488,188,0.6892175296368123,gap,2026,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.027684793825528464,0.774664610766484,0.49027507973023404,0.4734042553191489,0.4032816421035862,0.5445919819739572,188,-5.256458150231901e-17,gap,2026,Baseline: train mean
0.34415928234217763,0.3603159763870508,0.5284906311177353,0.31517132719953705,0.7477099236641221,0.7307246469951573,0.7639698764244841,2620,0.5870813963778887,gap,2016-2026 pooled,OLS core
0.34520478239007124,0.36133572044885987,0.5280692198315139,0.31598284921789416,0.751145038167939,0.734230258242326,0.7673244357640284,2620,0.5882538700944904,gap,2016-2026 pooled,OLS full
0.3471028893350794,0.36318706736151674,0.5273032862494479,0.31343808146596813,0.749618320610687,0.7326720378824899,0.7658336914186586,2620,0.5891714988628498,gap,2016-2026 pooled,Ridge (full)
0.33856500659608535,0.35485951611840416,0.5307398390845065,0.31397901954176316,0.7583969465648855,0.7416355936963218,0.7744016826597603,2620,0.581599075600827,gap,2016-2026 pooled,Lasso (full)
0.33723474458059177,0.35356202522523517,0.5312732765556811,0.3125860173524154,0.7568702290076336,0.7400760503354883,0.7729122613153879,2620,0.5803028441945965,gap,2016-2026 pooled,ElasticNet (full)
0.3178811441663375,0.3346852024677214,0.5389743929701871,0.30771063638206014,0.7614503816793893,0.7447555331638187,0.7773796726026747,2620,0.5633495351741489,gap,2016-2026 pooled,GBM (full)
0.0,0.024635088383308967,0.65258652895486,0.3801930817838667,0.667175572519084,0.648898690054168,0.6849629451658674,2620,-0.02540532675305784,gap,2016-2026 pooled,Baseline: train mean
0.013244687755056161,0.021468974450286504,0.843103210415031,0.6119812899077256,0.5655737704918032,0.5028378626586881,0.6262769357784491,244,0.12412990753016692,oc,2016,OLS core
-0.029328852738797595,-0.020749729339566203,0.8610989897710762,0.6293962662519725,0.5614754098360656,0.4987386911123849,0.6223064324224313,244,0.08503616041457225,oc,2016,OLS full
0.005242622068921787,0.013533603396083893,0.8465148691059762,0.6140736458402661,0.5860655737704918,0.5233973821567969,0.6460657907919459,244,0.09736338008964178,oc,2016,Ridge (full)
0.000558224409300534,0.008888248677371258,0.8485056836265299,0.6167472092760282,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,-4.706772186230791e-17,oc,2016,Lasso (full)
0.000558224409300534,0.008888248677371258,0.8485056836265299,0.6167472092760282,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,-4.706772186230791e-17,oc,2016,ElasticNet (full)
-0.0428813515766584,-0.034189272478586386,0.8667492155910222,0.62661056922048,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,0.07249925793008663,oc,2016,GBM (full)
0.0,0.008334676888153258,0.8487426111171922,0.6171600884089238,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,1.879129580054118e-16,oc,2016,Baseline: train mean
-0.0009663344153434394,0.014777231774684929,0.4806286036203271,0.37147780218590615,0.5725806451612904,0.5103650990223737,0.6325819763661599,248,0.11578906000679859,oc,2017,OLS core
-0.02700209151410915,-0.010849025372784649,0.48683920198895886,0.3751107102139316,0.5362903225806451,0.4741446594306386,0.5973288782636279,248,0.1172049062941644,oc,2017,OLS full
0.005914148218003512,0.021549495649784922,0.4789738730188153,0.3699762193830503,0.5362903225806451,0.4741446594306386,0.5973288782636279,248,0.11744878408716254,oc,2017,Ridge (full)
0.009339906585190572,0.024921372430998012,0.47814785540693083,0.37087629976191533,0.5282258064516129,0.4661397447022973,0.5894507846154657,248,0.09755798230789192,oc,2017,Lasso (full)
0.010137928250931738,0.025706842518845363,0.47795523170834525,0.3707999477293222,0.5282258064516129,0.4661397447022973,0.5894507846154657,248,0.10180426341909699,oc,2017,ElasticNet (full)
-0.10451160247104818,-0.08713943827002724,0.5048763401901419,0.3928667693931227,0.5161290322580645,0.4541621645324604,0.577603852220547,248,0.11338695709375211,oc,2017,GBM (full)
0.0,0.01572836732738281,0.48039654780908936,0.3715485933105076,0.5604838709677419,0.4982553310642383,0.6208672317595395,248,1.7521513268160777e-16,oc,2017,Baseline: train mean
-0.03928573939671143,-0.027979229621136303,0.7192056072513705,0.5593653588128507,0.5142857142857142,0.4519665346004817,0.5761638261246737,245,0.018454445697217707,oc,2018,OLS core
-0.06409977241914211,-0.05252330790801718,0.72774085349761,0.5654524186156269,0.5183673469387755,0.4560014700237701,0.5801661366228582,245,0.011782345778176285,oc,2018,OLS full
-0.0267838350027072,-0.015613334891159791,0.7148667409006481,0.5573268193954573,0.5265306122448979,0.46408359733389276,0.5881585011556814,245,0.00800056741779325,oc,2018,Ridge (full)
0.009766528692126908,0.02053939316916975,0.7020279152372437,0.5515019144172454,0.5469387755102041,0.4843606569374959,0.608067671159443,245,0.10288572702307656,oc,2018,Lasso (full)
0.009364496321327853,0.02014173455503665,0.7021704115848938,0.5516873023360697,0.5469387755102041,0.4843606569374959,0.608067671159443,245,0.10435225828368216,oc,2018,ElasticNet (full)
-0.04228521364674931,-0.030946072243851708,0.7202427062716095,0.5718542092466828,0.5265306122448979,0.46408359733389276,0.5881585011556814,245,0.08832568543056918,oc,2018,GBM (full)
0.0,0.010879115672402295,0.7054814203829441,0.5541545006089647,0.5306122448979592,0.46813079809182945,0.5921485463192178,245,-9.671983408873075e-17,oc,2018,Baseline: train mean
-0.008268616367463455,0.005667162723564156,0.7679538958581285,0.5748724432654018,0.5311203319502075,0.46812256714833134,0.5931415670887752,241,0.05006444550143525,oc,2019,OLS core
-0.029207749724470267,-0.014982560517840415,0.7758871281709592,0.5873045640625566,0.48132780082987553,0.4190347406381167,0.5442067788196192,241,0.03996910806612824,oc,2019,OLS full
-0.011020681441908708,0.0029531353012873796,0.7690012451738973,0.5780324228216857,0.49377593360995853,0.4312493429866201,0.5564978301659587,241,0.03527962319939863,oc,2019,Ridge (full)
-0.006189320844057322,0.007717719275421753,0.7671616331757825,0.5731402408014187,0.5394190871369294,0.4763634725452431,0.6012377641550919,241,-0.010391685522630256,oc,2019,Lasso (full)
-0.005823957550669112,0.008078032702076077,0.7670223362540439,0.5731187851525722,0.5394190871369294,0.4763634725452431,0.6012377641550919,241,-0.005904689228895079,oc,2019,ElasticNet (full)
-0.061558205761191864,-0.04688588490580958,0.7879867757471959,0.5920431445705744,0.5020746887966805,0.43941364849180103,0.5646706271240061,241,-0.0026381987541550236,oc,2019,GBM (full)
0.0,0.013821494455748096,0.7647984924688582,0.5681109712236955,0.5643153526970954,0.501189341878221,0.6254232022117991,241,-8.927907277521464e-17,oc,2019,Baseline: train mean
-0.015463190972349938,-0.01061556019251908,1.5609259079296964,0.971199578776198,0.5443548387096774,0.48216551871610336,0.605191027354667,248,0.017825876932703235,oc,2020,OLS core
-0.012880848190429894,-0.00804554503061028,1.5589399119424312,0.9596159723423191,0.5564516129032258,0.4942268424020494,0.6169542162334766,248,0.058425456493813574,oc,2020,OLS full
-0.0031824751667328677,0.0016065297796191702,1.551458505412188,0.9579275202777808,0.5604838709677419,0.4982553310642383,0.6208672317595395,248,0.04593362403815011,oc,2020,Ridge (full)
-0.002166810409290898,0.0026173459440408386,1.550672925116611,0.9650040355008973,0.5161290322580645,0.4541621645324604,0.577603852220547,248,-0.006226090366614764,oc,2020,Lasso (full)
-0.001504198464299833,0.0032767947039080703,1.5501602039368834,0.9644447844357555,0.5161290322580645,0.4541621645324604,0.577603852220547,248,-0.0028960406659690676,oc,2020,ElasticNet (full)
0.00652901065864675,0.011271654793476138,1.5439306578639083,0.9623084628553765,0.5443548387096774,0.48216551871610336,0.605191027354667,248,0.1046691332661471,oc,2020,GBM (full)
0.0,0.004773812406916544,1.5489956432710064,0.9657036908308656,0.5120967741935484,0.4501775647423217,0.573646947822434,248,,oc,2020,Baseline: train mean
0.002573468984478189,0.013833725942292263,0.8210801147081107,0.6152803708964555,0.5482456140350878,0.4833805829431775,0.6115118496351337,228,0.08817707784955889,oc,2021,OLS core
0.008955727877822173,0.020143933538748104,0.8184489656897361,0.621234839064299,0.5394736842105263,0.47465621756080617,0.602983045457812,228,0.1306121510678707,oc,2021,OLS full
0.0030844359754391704,0.014338924468673353,0.8208697741126195,0.614578641438637,0.4956140350877193,0.43132817813232827,0.5600452370878253,228,0.0598231025262643,oc,2021,Ridge (full)
0.0036208295796714696,0.014869262559415342,0.8206489085970091,0.6132014132782573,0.5087719298245614,0.4442753614579445,0.5729778081017485,228,0.07168044455619578,oc,2021,Lasso (full)
0.004160664972894357,0.01540300358372626,0.8204265658575203,0.6132837911215928,0.49122807017543857,0.4270221918982515,0.5557246385420554,228,0.06965676389049524,oc,2021,ElasticNet (full)
-0.017015224807109153,-0.0055338250195202665,0.8291036050074162,0.6394754112030414,0.5219298245614035,0.45726640496336735,0.5858665189358648,228,0.13215795826102605,oc,2021,GBM (full)
0.0,0.011289309646044354,0.8221386703714467,0.6148738298586086,0.5,0.43563903532127674,0.5643609646787232,228,3.436324674749926e-17,oc,2021,Baseline: train mean
-0.07350994461700178,-0.07872527812959684,0.8557910196778166,0.6743775978012558,0.5121951219512195,0.45002660988765897,0.5739886197236365,246,-0.011642006436218072,oc,2022,OLS core
-0.05300582149530797,-0.058121541733709314,0.8475787796240709,0.6547304211400491,0.516260162601626,0.45404327649148596,0.5779770296569079,246,0.05675220530985147,oc,2022,OLS full
-9.249596476657018e-05,-0.0049511523154170956,0.8260089883783389,0.6489081914446306,0.5,0.43800083481028895,0.561999165189711,246,0.03496185275987631,oc,2022,Ridge (full)
-0.001079934188059628,-0.00594338771798486,0.8264166664793082,0.6500826896496592,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-0.013014503508519685,oc,2022,Lasso (full)
-0.0007123363400103333,-0.005574004003502164,0.8262649219128341,0.6497254638167981,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-0.013014503508519721,oc,2022,ElasticNet (full)
-0.15036598874077867,-0.15595470482386076,0.8858959279040955,0.7156193322718032,0.45934959349593496,0.3981775327012739,0.5217717019277412,246,0.022503598513098726,oc,2022,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.004858206986108504,0.8259707897790879,0.6490516672719623,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-5.4779912905177287e-17,oc,2022,Baseline: train mean
-0.06913725988397501,-0.058469477850401574,0.521915486754914,0.40439337899800587,0.5428571428571428,0.4802970192132454,0.6040940629622205,245,-0.05047426830644074,oc,2023,OLS core
-0.07585113977073576,-0.06511636708037871,0.523551662983631,0.40679171494530175,0.5306122448979592,0.46813079809182945,0.5921485463192178,245,0.001939870429058392,oc,2023,OLS full
-0.0043834771416719764,0.005638195859821504,0.5058633678530092,0.3956476097566175,0.5142857142857142,0.4519665346004817,0.5761638261246737,245,-0.022761506452987353,oc,2023,Ridge (full)
-0.0001701114726513353,0.009809520840268982,0.5048012101328964,0.39518282293387613,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,,oc,2023,Lasso (full)
-0.0001701114726513353,0.009809520840268982,0.5048012101328964,0.39518282293387613,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,,oc,2023,ElasticNet (full)
-0.07188405420327926,-0.06118886483466213,0.5225855012339834,0.41030029340106555,0.5020408163265306,0.43988620505576814,0.5641324179049683,245,0.09675507379124536,oc,2023,GBM (full)
0.0,0.009977934951711509,0.5047582793714541,0.39508259372112264,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,-1.9848460965646935e-16,oc,2023,Baseline: train mean
-0.01857335400282012,-0.013120339475389153,0.7729130134889703,0.5256220588491423,0.5206611570247934,0.4578893474360648,0.582787274188173,242,-0.018726431404919412,oc,2024,OLS core
-0.016033046618566305,-0.010593631831415262,0.7719485947986013,0.5213848742235709,0.5413223140495868,0.4783855742186106,0.6029676690298648,242,0.047932616124220624,oc,2024,OLS full
0.0041369930024658386,0.009468425857201201,0.764247917848576,0.5173046738542573,0.5413223140495868,0.4783855742186106,0.6029676690298648,242,0.08638841709809876,oc,2024,Ridge (full)
-0.0021447401902614516,0.0032203224293040345,0.7666545011861012,0.5188167685665438,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,-0.13492560149150418,oc,2024,Lasso (full)
-0.0013067726934943291,0.004053803799553668,0.7663339058270621,0.5186486969432991,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,-0.13618744016929096,oc,2024,ElasticNet (full)
-0.002083583714282078,0.0032811514991614166,0.7666311080568268,0.52623636714299,0.5082644628099173,0.44564221598558523,0.5706284326641099,242,0.11032379841480841,oc,2024,GBM (full)
0.0,0.005353580580133466,0.765833683919839,0.518331608207372,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,1.1322732875966937e-16,oc,2024,Baseline: train mean
-0.04859374152184781,-0.06047563605813755,0.6012721382617718,0.462341798356407,0.5306122448979592,0.46813079809182945,0.5921485463192178,245,-0.08188554434531532,oc,2025,OLS core
-0.05647860645965874,-0.06844984649737018,0.6035285271819126,0.4641058436004319,0.5387755102040817,0.4762375021289996,0.6001163341249934,245,-0.008112134875650302,oc,2025,OLS full
0.001432270969678573,-0.009882765515720315,0.5867542077267106,0.45297206552745894,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,0.04839203518127853,oc,2025,Ridge (full)
-0.0002839656000239721,-0.011618449218390614,0.5872582179629418,0.4546794181940912,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,-4.113446657791178e-17,oc,2025,Lasso (full)
-0.0002839656000239721,-0.011618449218390614,0.5872582179629418,0.4546794181940912,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,-4.113446657791178e-17,oc,2025,ElasticNet (full)
-0.05463837031070873,-0.06658875814324494,0.6030026674674984,0.47722029874978406,0.49387755102040815,0.4318530352424977,0.556091095875293,245,0.07708536283722443,oc,2025,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.011331265928638201,0.5871748551505336,0.45468898939851965,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,,oc,2025,Baseline: train mean
-0.02099579069746893,-0.011614870041680492,0.6658639931189951,0.5053282162397325,0.5425531914893617,0.4711993274113913,0.6122028740645392,188,-0.0472981787702225,oc,2026,OLS core
-0.012608177587537073,-0.0033043224140871796,0.6631232730481341,0.5127227256138484,0.5478723404255319,0.47647893474142544,0.6173485419189967,188,0.08374587416516875,oc,2026,OLS full
0.00981589737147015,0.018913719895337744,0.655739778729143,0.4982537146979855,0.526595744680851,0.4554080180260428,0.5967183578964138,188,0.15752751385702576,oc,2026,Ridge (full)
1.5029321500659165e-05,0.009202902329779827,0.6589770525075512,0.5023704657013452,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,5.3769398671565193e-17,oc,2026,Lasso (full)
1.5029321500659165e-05,0.009202902329779827,0.6589770525075512,0.5023704657013452,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,5.3769398671565193e-17,oc,2026,ElasticNet (full)
-0.044955449867930986,-0.03535438759778353,0.6736315861130204,0.5210586567060096,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,0.053968986339406395,oc,2026,GBM (full)
0.0,0.009188011097851945,0.6589820045523626,0.5023161483220684,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,,oc,2026,Baseline: train mean
-0.021081456429298706,-0.014983152894071594,0.8336778953378693,0.5719959434817142,0.5385496183206107,0.5194185300512005,0.5575678287552458,2620,0.023696171941936947,oc,2016-2026 pooled,OLS core
-0.026144459418506294,-0.02001591762086319,0.8357422234391971,0.5737798814762064,0.533206106870229,0.5140681541823421,0.552246828155884,2620,0.05636388506133823,oc,2016-2026 pooled,OLS full
-0.002106989249986313,0.0038779912398066996,0.8258955716488777,0.5654700675178485,0.5290076335877862,0.5098658285086389,0.5480645008902713,2620,0.04611862652785561,oc,2016-2026 pooled,Ridge (full)
-0.00016782147079430487,0.005805577539726214,0.825096093332007,0.5660210793039935,0.5290076335877862,0.5098658285086389,0.5480645008902713,2620,0.01286951925549863,oc,2016-2026 pooled,Lasso (full)
0.0002282087246261444,0.0061992424857088,0.8249327230890111,0.5659343811822656,0.5274809160305344,0.5083380458392555,0.5465433188544491,2620,0.01723998167802793,oc,2016-2026 pooled,ElasticNet (full)
-0.03610810074249837,-0.029920052126150898,0.8397898600997773,0.5863956635396257,0.5156488549618321,0.49650379053123017,0.5347480976971293,2620,0.06778776285652612,oc,2016-2026 pooled,GBM (full)
0.0,0.005972396714119754,0.8250268676250903,0.5659663706277311,0.5316793893129771,0.5125398789887088,0.5507261386443116,2620,-0.017610931820432968,oc,2016-2026 pooled,Baseline: train mean
0.24951949601563306,0.24808723759183393,0.8284336273509503,0.6279981867855957,0.6639344262295082,0.6025307238045134,0.7202562722883299,244,0.5018914377720619,cc,2016,OLS core
0.20569034625681037,0.20417444186403977,0.8522812464428396,0.6479351473206979,0.6352459016393442,0.5731846589623456,0.6931146128142501,244,0.4521638964874157,cc,2016,OLS full
0.2119092014636701,0.21040516547748578,0.8489383255567071,0.6413470476129796,0.6434426229508197,0.5815456912567666,0.7008929303244714,244,0.4645250177407931,cc,2016,Ridge (full)
0.2432451129822727,0.24180088017951784,0.8318894738266894,0.6303944218826106,0.6516393442622951,0.5899254208372712,0.7086525505486089,244,0.5211566559723768,cc,2016,Lasso (full)
0.24361089980568484,0.2421673650906968,0.8316883974985001,0.630384059723406,0.6516393442622951,0.5899254208372712,0.7086525505486089,244,0.5204434511164157,cc,2016,ElasticNet (full)
0.17122492841601955,0.16964324831719102,0.8705753211850497,0.657394926703329,0.6475409836065574,0.5857332010372287,0.7047750954463305,244,0.4122454775450155,cc,2016,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.0019084552046257919,0.956286471589449,0.7091906034967359,0.5245901639344263,0.4620343637088326,0.586383685705094,244,5.906134335668118e-17,cc,2016,Baseline: train mean
0.16011997648124665,0.1786667786954268,0.5221524216878117,0.40544489783248244,0.6491935483870968,0.5879345570328478,0.7059010979324709,248,0.3993243380680631,cc,2017,OLS core
0.13693665053672244,0.15599540273056578,0.5293098889856986,0.416338314693173,0.6048387096774194,0.5428386099948883,0.66364049889966,248,0.38625517283513977,cc,2017,OLS full
0.1579127683941155,0.1765083116792715,0.5228380808390589,0.40944582237211874,0.6129032258064516,0.5509988536661036,0.6713632636049484,248,0.3959429795451883,cc,2017,Ridge (full)
0.1827871237976464,0.20083337463988704,0.5150581589247782,0.39853758934638384,0.6532258064516129,0.5920607857978154,0.7097163733557551,248,0.43191823032897897,cc,2017,Lasso (full)
0.18340911270630322,0.20144162836620205,0.5148621136518186,0.39852468113798784,0.6532258064516129,0.5920607857978154,0.7097163733557551,248,0.4317131305376878,cc,2017,ElasticNet (full)
0.1478219375123776,0.16664031339183238,0.5259613673019575,0.4055818865007409,0.6693548387096774,0.6086118309604335,0.7249313449461444,248,0.41595146846619646,cc,2017,GBM (full)
0.0,0.022082680495812523,0.5697556895234441,0.4380765604796967,0.5604838709677419,0.4982553310642383,0.6208672317595395,248,0.0,cc,2017,Baseline: train mean
0.1735818245781806,0.17140407507802335,0.738164303351177,0.5778996117292473,0.636734693877551,0.5748310914639025,0.6944166469054409,245,0.4593381316585876,cc,2018,OLS core
0.1646140210469733,0.1624126398912712,0.7421585589941195,0.582511040438861,0.6693877551020408,0.6082643154613085,0.7252813902798185,245,0.44800207853772783,cc,2018,OLS full
0.17185309545837435,0.16967079046913358,0.7389359583809915,0.5806116182632469,0.673469387755102,0.612464988492537,0.7291179631700628,245,0.44379844731111695,cc,2018,Ridge (full)
0.21124298543934494,0.2091644793690638,0.7211485368388423,0.5642194299364035,0.6693877551020408,0.6082643154613085,0.7252813902798185,245,0.46338485384250294,cc,2018,Lasso (full)
0.21171563972451957,0.20963837917698214,0.7209324341491193,0.5638166956801757,0.6693877551020408,0.6082643154613085,0.7252813902798185,245,0.46294845463207507,cc,2018,ElasticNet (full)
0.149552590482668,0.1473115199495314,0.7488189748084836,0.5836846574496128,0.6530612244897959,0.5915099837580138,0.7098867382972214,245,0.41475022021275815,cc,2018,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.0026351665112467337,0.8119945408531336,0.6326734009808016,0.5387755102040817,0.4762375021289996,0.6001163341249934,245,7.535045762291721e-17,cc,2018,Baseline: train mean
0.004490817040094686,0.0073794549813314125,0.8696728228394855,0.6175740499332024,0.6182572614107884,0.5555214690020202,0.6772822410989848,241,0.20554696675564207,cc,2019,OLS core
-0.019094463896154545,-0.016137389280969305,0.8799145205252569,0.6296221429928001,0.6016597510373444,0.5387231596642119,0.6614063455103361,241,0.18673735537875105,cc,2019,OLS full
-0.010439515264989208,-0.007507554444255327,0.8761700916641302,0.626771538829612,0.6058091286307054,0.5429158974537437,0.6653821589524184,241,0.17917651384615454,cc,2019,Ridge (full)
0.008013730998862822,0.010892146610562814,0.8681326573044222,0.617801686321699,0.6016597510373444,0.5387231596642119,0.6614063455103361,241,0.1875569737273609,cc,2019,Lasso (full)
0.009307653522748316,0.012182314599824662,0.8675662870968549,0.6176799347973329,0.5975103734439834,0.5345349404820445,0.6574260134608894,241,0.18849547464032546,cc,2019,ElasticNet (full)
-0.061904417989150806,-0.05882312306563242,0.8982060525644067,0.6418750135431539,0.5975103734439834,0.5345349404820445,0.6574260134608894,241,0.14311129964926772,cc,2019,GBM (full)
0.0,0.0029016688049506856,0.8716321954688183,0.6465272269626564,0.5269709543568465,0.46400852297168915,0.5890870600338033,241,,cc,2019,Baseline: train mean
0.17549560101915895,0.17609893965416956,1.822889939064752,1.1038783616633985,0.6854838709677419,0.6252386564934398,0.7400705361661455,248,0.4637425737236092,cc,2020,OLS core
0.1840854474100263,0.18468250034637623,1.8133694675335932,1.1135933500798094,0.6653225806451613,0.6044670720065842,0.7211345997117419,248,0.4643017555492657,cc,2020,OLS full
0.17312862691390485,0.1737336976038657,1.825504625570905,1.1141994604932315,0.7016129032258065,0.6419442503051648,0.7551309591074281,248,0.4625882884569871,cc,2020,Ridge (full)
0.1919258193547293,0.19251713502719925,1.8046358255109356,1.102935235664608,0.7056451612903226,0.646133353107841,0.7588833604930036,248,0.5039979127578557,cc,2020,Lasso (full)
0.1916852110824795,0.1922767028222534,1.8049044753460217,1.1030000786607885,0.7016129032258065,0.6419442503051648,0.7551309591074281,248,0.5041899906389135,cc,2020,ElasticNet (full)
0.14526062747156077,0.14588609082499893,1.8560121472527675,1.1264356257412755,0.6693548387096774,0.6086118309604335,0.7249313449461444,248,0.45611479102501185,cc,2020,GBM (full)
0.0,0.0007317591461687423,2.0075388542200554,1.2278530647516899,0.5887096774193549,0.5265686748858045,0.6481444172557365,248,,cc,2020,Baseline: train mean
0.0802356937008869,0.08685171649062007,0.9579821926356133,0.7166007965364105,0.6096491228070176,0.545011750805564,0.6706528686905976,228,0.3060812734812818,cc,2021,OLS core
0.11891181120966443,0.1252496300365954,0.9376242912423706,0.7125657336324474,0.5964912280701754,0.5317210768784559,0.6580637882781661,228,0.3612758549212804,cc,2021,OLS full
0.12310391512097574,0.12941157942372672,0.9353910840514725,0.6978890175190253,0.6228070175438597,0.5583495721883688,0.6831948016473323,228,0.3556930473449886,cc,2021,Ridge (full)
0.10914635460257982,0.1155544180378546,0.942806007585993,0.7099611003296705,0.618421052631579,0.5538983397770655,0.679019449278789,228,0.3399027465993227,cc,2021,Lasso (full)
0.10886870982778474,0.11527877040965984,0.9429529143033036,0.7101001864188223,0.618421052631579,0.5538983397770655,0.679019449278789,228,0.3392253976750427,cc,2021,ElasticNet (full)
0.11677720053887652,0.1231303739873647,0.9387593944442457,0.7025164718108632,0.6535087719298246,0.5896598674607741,0.712270599833852,228,0.36712508939187444,cc,2021,GBM (full)
0.0,0.007193171929398168,0.9988934387270434,0.7411244555059923,0.5614035087719298,0.4965042021422287,0.6242679847756217,228,-1.4982047905675463e-16,cc,2021,Baseline: train mean
0.062047127869795715,0.061016544989305976,1.0612024091701637,0.8234319894747936,0.6138211382113821,0.551674344498638,0.6724677985401201,246,0.4219425015026538,cc,2022,OLS core
0.061765230932462445,0.06073433831556019,1.061361866667615,0.81987864532498,0.6260162601626016,0.5640496527846052,0.6841077198654483,246,0.4253868838066323,cc,2022,OLS full
0.1467630085410908,0.1458255078813817,1.0121445857994207,0.7806980153247312,0.6219512195121951,0.5599201414861619,0.6802321546267931,246,0.4536011484490698,cc,2022,Ridge (full)
0.1299642513404724,0.1290082929180132,1.0220597069144666,0.7970990716582517,0.6219512195121951,0.5599201414861619,0.6802321546267931,246,0.4347853824443293,cc,2022,Lasso (full)
0.12853519851013617,0.12757766990496744,1.0228987402838758,0.7977152501249397,0.6138211382113821,0.551674344498638,0.6724677985401201,246,0.4352101444222064,cc,2022,ElasticNet (full)
0.08017842582720736,0.0791677648487995,1.0508954562061381,0.8203009658299778,0.6341463414634146,0.5723220414899637,0.6918454842342869,246,0.43363756551864613,cc,2022,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.0010987576360304008,1.0957405111516878,0.8374746993613295,0.5,0.43800083481028895,0.561999165189711,246,9.067095847071092e-17,cc,2022,Baseline: train mean
-0.17529811186263,-0.16013450832286935,0.6692160979052278,0.5208226802524931,0.5714285714285714,0.5088295814370587,0.6318222221887178,245,0.27690222516461466,cc,2023,OLS core
-0.1703232317900476,-0.15522381376059902,0.6677982446980378,0.5182686725030825,0.5918367346938775,0.5293358357850059,0.6515021974481353,245,0.28376137905277543,cc,2023,OLS full
-0.07671768822224578,-0.06282596153294273,0.6405356173098473,0.49978205040836676,0.6,0.537568225666692,0.659344299409395,245,0.3018048825751677,cc,2023,Ridge (full)
-0.10616201634600086,-0.09189040125761272,0.6492347105845814,0.5086188653639699,0.5714285714285714,0.5088295814370587,0.6318222221887178,245,0.2746571746657903,cc,2023,Lasso (full)
-0.10490936566746556,-0.0906539121793315,0.6488670001315311,0.5083517410972805,0.5714285714285714,0.5088295814370587,0.6318222221887178,245,0.27448254170125275,cc,2023,ElasticNet (full)
-0.07073211108703537,-0.056917609841829364,0.6387527365191249,0.5033717632674615,0.5836734693877551,0.5211205984129286,0.6436429429772668,245,0.3014206157472684,cc,2023,GBM (full)
0.0,0.012901921126827087,0.617294432627621,0.4913698497433173,0.5755102040816327,0.5129223644347132,0.6357666851125363,245,-1.888038216538158e-16,cc,2023,Baseline: train mean
0.014399791403238993,0.016233705572473722,0.8861191049424948,0.6257312116566631,0.5826446280991735,0.5196979042462819,0.643008582250669,242,0.23155643069655554,cc,2024,OLS core
0.004553561903346215,0.0064057970303444955,0.8905343077111846,0.6337530955685751,0.5743801652892562,0.5114009154925833,0.6350349223546726,242,0.22856794703998756,cc,2024,OLS full
0.034094617563075635,0.035891885412189906,0.8772209597040496,0.6197368656520418,0.5702479338842975,0.507258944620817,0.6310415689015912,242,0.23726023896979195,cc,2024,Ridge (full)
0.027527855071497354,0.02933734174795577,0.8801978268827996,0.6201182256416081,0.5454545454545454,0.48249752464426876,0.6069910429290543,242,0.2199229504600149,cc,2024,Lasso (full)
0.03414361685521938,0.035940793530959914,0.877198709206228,0.617781589327825,0.5619834710743802,0.4989879717353789,0.6230418931373343,242,0.22658917083726365,cc,2024,ElasticNet (full)
0.05640252934947887,0.05815828868920525,0.8670319287599961,0.6227354085591689,0.5537190082644629,0.4907341978045146,0.6150250184185037,242,0.2779516182407831,cc,2024,GBM (full)
0.0,0.0018607079759508371,0.8925688100767394,0.6000297595298075,0.5537190082644629,0.4907341978045146,0.6150250184185037,242,1.6882872525873894e-16,cc,2024,Baseline: train mean
0.0297925688313746,0.030963012014597835,0.718127087329543,0.5526686500990554,0.563265306122449,0.5006566072095474,0.6239207045732832,245,0.34428181210631137,cc,2025,OLS core
0.02902153899324833,0.030192912334898514,0.7184123806756435,0.552806734939977,0.6,0.537568225666692,0.659344299409395,245,0.32810398593508433,cc,2025,OLS full
0.06185725659881425,0.0629890174404949,0.7061605824915806,0.5435857717405563,0.5836734693877551,0.5211205984129286,0.6436429429772668,245,0.3349348728263521,cc,2025,Ridge (full)
0.07624235290654047,0.07735675979135315,0.7007256793958604,0.539836926619516,0.5714285714285714,0.5088295814370587,0.6318222221887178,245,0.35461928192667885,cc,2025,Lasso (full)
0.07797888805808995,0.07909120001385428,0.7000667364438683,0.5395620331933326,0.5755102040816327,0.5129223644347132,0.6357666851125363,245,0.3538941383719587,cc,2025,ElasticNet (full)
-0.015591224249273505,-0.014366030762626991,0.7347311956061134,0.5644246324981435,0.6163265306122448,0.5540851420635836,0.6749763666983951,245,0.25792595967241483,cc,2025,GBM (full)
0.0,0.001206384475754163,0.7290696338471198,0.5381720522137701,0.5020408163265306,0.43988620505576814,0.5641324179049683,245,-2.9844818354802944e-17,cc,2025,Baseline: train mean
0.30162432856951116,0.29311873563601365,0.7887387852222562,0.6132656277763995,0.6329787234042553,0.5620588521348608,0.6985730274774227,188,0.5668463761567741,cc,2026,OLS core
0.2882059282674102,0.2795369111834771,0.7962800399678251,0.6115160530229193,0.6436170212765957,0.5729084154487492,0.708574014532517,188,0.547226153277362,cc,2026,OLS full
0.2886156609416747,0.2799516340363538,0.7960508241534752,0.6110085162363422,0.6329787234042553,0.5620588521348608,0.6985730274774227,188,0.5638265243523027,cc,2026,Ridge (full)
0.2865898729519495,0.2779011737553174,0.7971834634894172,0.6124109072962489,0.6382978723404256,0.5674792235398644,0.7035779312569107,188,0.5787096154564458,cc,2026,Lasso (full)
0.2835370093849957,0.2748111290323694,0.7988873181294546,0.6137302434010783,0.648936170212766,0.5783465126208184,0.7135611925449391,188,0.5793631874803279,cc,2026,ElasticNet (full)
0.25559628997873696,0.24653011657859958,0.8143158925191538,0.6194804667554793,0.6542553191489362,0.5837936044589024,0.7185393758913466,188,0.5297812338972241,cc,2026,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.01217910829579072,0.9438188487574828,0.7054311017518262,0.48404255319148937,0.41364408160138905,0.5550800928451372,188,5.813157979111835e-17,cc,2026,Baseline: train mean
0.12714533103087322,0.1281831849370244,0.9579430256174469,0.6540610668085256,0.6206106870229008,0.601866705222163,0.6390015064890954,2620,0.3709861570054024,cc,2016-2026 pooled,OLS core
0.12573170320000882,0.1267712379577589,0.9587184279416194,0.6591126893573787,0.6187022900763359,0.5999431315384081,0.6371138742913431,2620,0.37187843318535374,cc,2016-2026 pooled,OLS full
0.14015067764412592,0.1411730677505595,0.9507796699601575,0.6485862381036412,0.6244274809160305,0.6057147668219338,0.6427758566523389,2620,0.37875182166715354,cc,2016-2026 pooled,Ridge (full)
0.14991886069637128,0.15092963610072774,0.9453636525850265,0.6463116408381848,0.6225190839694656,0.6037905833497564,0.6408888342430091,2620,0.38818483170061113,cc,2016-2026 pooled,Lasso (full)
0.15021893612450998,0.15122935472897026,0.9451967829601015,0.6461648491765539,0.6236641221374046,0.6049450567332902,0.6420210843883799,2620,0.38845966479292054,cc,2016-2026 pooled,ElasticNet (full)
0.11015169231114907,0.11120975223206064,0.9672231878862553,0.6598402790998706,0.6297709923664122,0.6111041128762178,0.6480578870662754,2620,0.3480933633726387,cc,2016-2026 pooled,GBM (full)
0.0,0.0011890340317213255,1.0253419124234457,0.6878138420084657,0.5389312977099237,0.5198007839320521,0.5579478160506958,2620,-0.021050261697299875,cc,2016-2026 pooled,Baseline: train mean
0.013485524513520586,0.021707803912186407,0.8430003162968912,0.6119384795567017,0.5655737704918032,0.5028378626586881,0.6262769357784491,244,0.12478360951482668,oc_atopen,2016,OLS core
-0.021181493072228275,-0.012670275283309218,0.8576843273743405,0.6280968945745987,0.5655737704918032,0.5028378626586881,0.6262769357784491,244,0.0996460455544306,oc_atopen,2016,OLS full
0.004704093768077788,0.012999563554622506,0.8467439754903178,0.6133856059850328,0.5819672131147541,0.5192769382349264,0.6421165598114952,244,0.08723528528208827,oc_atopen,2016,Ridge (full)
0.000558224409300534,0.008888248677371258,0.8485056836265299,0.6167472092760282,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,-4.706772186230791e-17,oc_atopen,2016,Lasso (full)
0.000558224409300534,0.008888248677371258,0.8485056836265299,0.6167472092760282,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,-4.706772186230791e-17,oc_atopen,2016,ElasticNet (full)
-0.04138689797598216,-0.03270727466579615,0.8661279652131527,0.6234615144084056,0.5901639344262295,0.5275221305614836,0.6500107172895803,244,0.07519527632315473,oc_atopen,2016,GBM (full)
0.0,0.008334676888153258,0.8487426111171922,0.6171600884089238,0.5778688524590164,0.5151607808210014,0.6381630423230994,244,1.879129580054118e-16,oc_atopen,2016,Baseline: train mean
0.012138877662098091,0.027676320262669307,0.4774719077863898,0.3719355853617379,0.5766129032258065,0.5144098326893934,0.6364787468873919,248,0.15352192799488074,oc_atopen,2017,OLS core
-0.01076409145491719,0.005133577456814087,0.4829751435100638,0.37409391993804236,0.5483870967741935,0.48618194638122847,0.6091161038777937,248,0.15707559810093516,oc_atopen,2017,OLS full
0.01696473915097818,0.032426278829381205,0.4763042161705698,0.36789613118301456,0.5564516129032258,0.4942268424020494,0.6169542162334766,248,0.14606247747718012,oc_atopen,2017,Ridge (full)
0.009339906585190572,0.024921372430998012,0.47814785540693083,0.37087629976191533,0.5282258064516129,0.4661397447022973,0.5894507846154657,248,0.09755798230789192,oc_atopen,2017,Lasso (full)
0.010137928250931738,0.025706842518845363,0.47795523170834525,0.3707999477293222,0.5282258064516129,0.4661397447022973,0.5894507846154657,248,0.10180426341909699,oc_atopen,2017,ElasticNet (full)
-0.10132306995965679,-0.08400105616921039,0.5041470684853891,0.3919880548679864,0.5443548387096774,0.48216551871610336,0.605191027354667,248,0.11514760588354313,oc_atopen,2017,GBM (full)
0.0,0.01572836732738281,0.48039654780908936,0.3715485933105076,0.5604838709677419,0.4982553310642383,0.6208672317595395,248,1.7521513268160777e-16,oc_atopen,2017,Baseline: train mean
-0.012321356258020666,-0.0013081951256463942,0.7098143582837227,0.5550062704444476,0.563265306122449,0.5006566072095474,0.6239207045732832,245,0.08853999314791566,oc_atopen,2018,OLS core
-0.029547753460428927,-0.01834718436027094,0.7158282410001484,0.560348877362341,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,0.08375292068552538,oc_atopen,2018,OLS full
-0.013394275789317511,-0.0023694422412552374,0.7101904108090727,0.5551125625182207,0.5469387755102041,0.4843606569374959,0.608067671159443,245,0.05754136834886986,oc_atopen,2018,Ridge (full)
0.009766528692126908,0.02053939316916975,0.7020279152372437,0.5515019144172454,0.5469387755102041,0.4843606569374959,0.608067671159443,245,0.10288572702307656,oc_atopen,2018,Lasso (full)
0.009364496321327853,0.02014173455503665,0.7021704115848938,0.5516873023360697,0.5469387755102041,0.4843606569374959,0.608067671159443,245,0.10435225828368216,oc_atopen,2018,ElasticNet (full)
-0.0200005228276392,-0.008903819153886383,0.7125014915135773,0.5663663885005645,0.5265306122448979,0.46408359733389276,0.5881585011556814,245,0.11851067076832936,oc_atopen,2018,GBM (full)
0.0,0.010879115672402295,0.7054814203829441,0.5541545006089647,0.5306122448979592,0.46813079809182945,0.5921485463192178,245,-9.671983408873075e-17,oc_atopen,2018,Baseline: train mean
-0.01989687505144322,-0.005800376047484734,0.7723695677952224,0.5785711337768331,0.5228215767634855,0.4598987427199784,0.5850282890538997,241,0.03554749027839178,oc_atopen,2019,OLS core
-0.04509572149879859,-0.030650936778376936,0.7818529121406506,0.5882214687630036,0.5394190871369294,0.4763634725452431,0.6012377641550919,241,0.02758361185047826,oc_atopen,2019,OLS full
-0.021183789952239573,-0.007069503861114823,0.7728567055521968,0.5801798876727029,0.5020746887966805,0.43941364849180103,0.5646706271240061,241,0.018054285093106238,oc_atopen,2019,Ridge (full)
-0.006189320844057322,0.007717719275421753,0.7671616331757825,0.5731402408014187,0.5394190871369294,0.4763634725452431,0.6012377641550919,241,-0.010391685522630256,oc_atopen,2019,Lasso (full)
-0.005823957550669112,0.008078032702076077,0.7670223362540439,0.5731187851525722,0.5394190871369294,0.4763634725452431,0.6012377641550919,241,-0.005904689228895079,oc_atopen,2019,ElasticNet (full)
-0.058386338309935004,-0.04375785740294469,0.7868086682300401,0.5923874948590122,0.49377593360995853,0.4312493429866201,0.5564978301659587,241,0.0024448486149908355,oc_atopen,2019,GBM (full)
0.0,0.013821494455748096,0.7647984924688582,0.5681109712236955,0.5643153526970954,0.501189341878221,0.6254232022117991,241,-8.927907277521464e-17,oc_atopen,2019,Baseline: train mean
-0.01348312269963392,-0.008644944394289755,1.5594033278718362,0.9703688923394739,0.532258064516129,0.47014021236307807,0.5933918211429366,248,0.053779475860599106,oc_atopen,2020,OLS core
-0.011035792171868009,-0.006209296963361366,1.5575193882241203,0.9615571321611759,0.5766129032258065,0.5144098326893934,0.6364787468873919,248,0.081547108706576,oc_atopen,2020,OLS full
-0.0028562341567295313,0.0019312133762413586,1.5512062130527629,0.9571634505198068,0.5564516129032258,0.4942268424020494,0.6169542162334766,248,0.07019227600318145,oc_atopen,2020,Ridge (full)
-0.0001597484197757293,0.004614826596128996,1.5491193631333167,0.9622683535377189,0.532258064516129,0.47014021236307807,0.5933918211429366,248,0.029796597728591064,oc_atopen,2020,Lasso (full)
0.00031581768533262,0.005088122437864606,1.5487510238463722,0.9621265033584046,0.5403225806451613,0.47815309243997584,0.6012619494425427,248,0.029209837239961234,oc_atopen,2020,ElasticNet (full)
0.01144005933582215,0.016159259045545493,1.540109855649936,0.960227527068208,0.5685483870967742,0.5063244467003145,0.628681124499967,248,0.1273551531872107,oc_atopen,2020,GBM (full)
0.0,0.004773812406916544,1.5489956432710064,0.9657036908308656,0.5120967741935484,0.4501775647423217,0.573646947822434,248,,oc_atopen,2020,Baseline: train mean
-0.020110000993368127,-0.008593663319127254,0.8303641274629027,0.6210708422294715,0.5131578947368421,0.4486008326179807,0.5772789217215588,228,0.04900752905849432,oc_atopen,2021,OLS core
-0.008995927169938911,0.002394940283480085,0.8258283407496539,0.6248317223551028,0.5131578947368421,0.4486008326179807,0.5772789217215588,228,0.1065017161325438,oc_atopen,2021,OLS full
0.0024170371644244293,0.013679060129493603,0.8211444994106673,0.6146338882954187,0.4956140350877193,0.43132817813232827,0.5600452370878253,228,0.04967310729326112,oc_atopen,2021,Ridge (full)
0.0036208295796714696,0.014869262559415342,0.8206489085970091,0.6132014132782573,0.5087719298245614,0.4442753614579445,0.5729778081017485,228,0.07168044455619578,oc_atopen,2021,Lasso (full)
0.0039124133860963806,0.015157554585961686,0.8205288210597125,0.6131585566245107,0.4956140350877193,0.43132817813232827,0.5600452370878253,228,0.06617276766630613,oc_atopen,2021,ElasticNet (full)
-0.017495319404163823,-0.006008499680009605,0.8292992762159939,0.6306524464469213,0.5263157894736842,0.46160651502315836,0.5901529936559203,228,0.13090221380624112,oc_atopen,2021,GBM (full)
0.0,0.011289309646044354,0.8221386703714467,0.6148738298586086,0.5,0.43563903532127674,0.5643609646787232,228,3.436324674749926e-17,oc_atopen,2021,Baseline: train mean
-0.1015436544738697,-0.10689518155153821,0.866893098390317,0.684516988079737,0.5040650406504065,0.44200539062411465,0.5659996859129839,246,-0.010534877087409317,oc_atopen,2022,OLS core
-0.08718536538831834,-0.09246713692564268,0.8612247214541106,0.6662971662259922,0.5,0.43800083481028895,0.561999165189711,246,0.03952069051188194,oc_atopen,2022,OLS full
0.00036744679124689483,-0.004488975062293177,0.825819025678315,0.6486886220819937,0.4959349593495935,0.43400031408701617,0.5579946093758854,246,0.03903629954398204,oc_atopen,2022,Ridge (full)
-0.001079934188059628,-0.00594338771798486,0.8264166664793082,0.6500826896496592,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-0.013014503508519685,oc_atopen,2022,Lasso (full)
-0.0007123363400103333,-0.005574004003502164,0.8262649219128341,0.6497254638167981,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-0.013014503508519721,oc_atopen,2022,ElasticNet (full)
-0.12462751994747845,-0.13009119322165708,0.8759292765616558,0.7065454865229084,0.4878048780487805,0.42601138027636354,0.549973390112341,246,0.046489938518826344,oc_atopen,2022,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.004858206986108504,0.8259707897790879,0.6490516672719623,0.483739837398374,0.42202297034309205,0.545956723508514,246,-5.4779912905177287e-17,oc_atopen,2022,Baseline: train mean
-0.10543984768781,-0.09440984079455128,0.5307023478893094,0.41189074062822667,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,-0.059423550404424846,oc_atopen,2023,OLS core
-0.11080068950104671,-0.09971719247688893,0.531987614768954,0.4123562125686729,0.5387755102040817,0.4762375021289996,0.6001163341249934,245,-0.01124594678486265,oc_atopen,2023,OLS full
-0.004882961547591158,0.005143695276813909,0.5059891362789832,0.39598236220729305,0.5183673469387755,0.4560014700237701,0.5801661366228582,245,-0.027807328015265583,oc_atopen,2023,Ridge (full)
-0.0001701114726513353,0.009809520840268982,0.5048012101328964,0.39518282293387613,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,,oc_atopen,2023,Lasso (full)
-0.0001701114726513353,0.009809520840268982,0.5048012101328964,0.39518282293387613,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,,oc_atopen,2023,ElasticNet (full)
-0.09512553198014073,-0.08419844065808446,0.5282206841878951,0.41618209721121435,0.5142857142857142,0.4519665346004817,0.5761638261246737,245,0.06260046972936663,oc_atopen,2023,GBM (full)
0.0,0.009977934951711509,0.5047582793714541,0.39508259372112264,0.5224489795918368,0.4600404895921263,0.5841643629759751,245,-1.9848460965646935e-16,oc_atopen,2023,Baseline: train mean
-0.025539805404641847,-0.02004949541827372,0.7755516480199373,0.5277272404723052,0.5330578512396694,0.47017440032655816,0.5949081942722222,242,-0.007820071163260564,oc_atopen,2024,OLS core
-0.02570107956651202,-0.020209906185922666,0.7756126264063619,0.5252763648264724,0.512396694214876,0.44972038602458886,0.5746855869499536,242,0.038077500225459304,oc_atopen,2024,OLS full
0.004082537599438774,0.009414261985562278,0.7642688127202478,0.517235628546703,0.5454545454545454,0.48249752464426876,0.6069910429290543,242,0.08497031706574,oc_atopen,2024,Ridge (full)
-0.0021447401902614516,0.0032203224293040345,0.7666545011861012,0.5188167685665438,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,-0.13492560149150384,oc_atopen,2024,Lasso (full)
-0.0013067726934945512,0.004053803799553557,0.7663339058270622,0.5186486969432991,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,-0.13618744016929094,oc_atopen,2024,ElasticNet (full)
-0.026580236768739995,-0.02108435674922604,0.775944954892226,0.5307755207895721,0.47520661157024796,0.4131681996602404,0.5380198543906743,242,0.0538214119067777,oc_atopen,2024,GBM (full)
0.0,0.005353580580133466,0.765833683919839,0.518331608207372,0.5371900826446281,0.4742778688382762,0.5989400500853517,242,1.1322732875966937e-16,oc_atopen,2024,Baseline: train mean
-0.05138638986173061,-0.06329992863900458,0.6020722694625572,0.4640307530925101,0.5306122448979592,0.46813079809182945,0.5921485463192178,245,-0.05742931291203207,oc_atopen,2025,OLS core
-0.06031575075542617,-0.07233047049555963,0.6046235456061165,0.4647998922942383,0.5428571428571428,0.4802970192132454,0.6040940629622205,245,0.006673740718101422,oc_atopen,2025,OLS full
0.0028719633991404203,-0.008426759548484819,0.5863310765431675,0.45275375996107114,0.5387755102040817,0.4762375021289996,0.6001163341249934,245,0.061346414695215554,oc_atopen,2025,Ridge (full)
-0.0002839656000239721,-0.011618449218390614,0.5872582179629418,0.4546794181940912,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,-4.113446657791178e-17,oc_atopen,2025,Lasso (full)
-0.0002839656000239721,-0.011618449218390614,0.5872582179629418,0.4546794181940912,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,-4.113446657791178e-17,oc_atopen,2025,ElasticNet (full)
-0.05351582302611613,-0.06545349097685316,0.6026816668083125,0.47510642546938586,0.47346938775510206,0.41184149884431864,0.5359164026661073,245,0.08179348629773468,oc_atopen,2025,GBM (full)
0.0,-0.011331265928638201,0.5871748551505336,0.45468898939851965,0.5346938775510204,0.4721820975279185,0.5961344928046015,245,,oc_atopen,2025,Baseline: train mean
0.007058267845982957,0.016181427500534418,0.656652250518598,0.5039798739734409,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,0.09046126452781392,oc_atopen,2026,OLS core
0.016749486744287112,0.025783603372049213,0.6534398945044269,0.5094386907670908,0.5531914893617021,0.481766496296925,0.6224862555479884,188,0.15144628618392447,oc_atopen,2026,OLS full
0.013268391248537514,0.022334492220347335,0.65459559026887,0.49790889822530027,0.5372340425531915,0.4659276516585937,0.6070492746328457,188,0.20723241800282138,oc_atopen,2026,Ridge (full)
1.5029321500659165e-05,0.009202902329779827,0.6589770525075512,0.5023704657013452,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,5.3769398671565193e-17,oc_atopen,2026,Lasso (full)
1.5029321500659165e-05,0.009202902329779827,0.6589770525075512,0.5023704657013452,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,5.3769398671565193e-17,oc_atopen,2026,ElasticNet (full)
-0.012483707041116787,-0.0031809955044286298,0.663082515993939,0.5195226985154485,0.5319148936170213,0.4606638875884161,0.6018877635185319,188,0.1097229197491784,oc_atopen,2026,GBM (full)
0.0,0.009188011097851945,0.6589820045523626,0.5023161483220684,0.5212765957446809,0.45016002848741776,0.5915410722505478,188,,oc_atopen,2026,Baseline: train mean
-0.024323384029333095,-0.018205718416360206,0.8350003077064525,0.5743019024960543,0.5354961832061069,0.5163609031846381,0.5545275262113969,2620,0.04180633274260518,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,OLS core
-0.02869644586571396,-0.022552662592598915,0.8367808093820989,0.5754615601353649,0.5385496183206107,0.5194185300512005,0.5575678287552458,2620,0.07012773213893879,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,OLS full
-0.0013943481233678057,0.004586376190902408,0.8256018545942101,0.5650912089076973,0.5343511450381679,0.5152144782335014,0.5533872276336292,2620,0.058712680184768426,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,Ridge (full)
0.000501870950811556,0.006471270292513709,0.8248198131339214,0.5657621292555705,0.5305343511450382,0.5113937901909955,0.5495855039131206,2620,0.024600855367872827,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,Lasso (full)
0.0008140373478277008,0.006781572307966055,0.8246909979169486,0.5657040425668008,0.5301526717557252,0.5110117829826754,0.5492052699451394,2620,0.026418801115487656,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,ElasticNet (full)
-0.03128810169050622,-0.02512884002065907,0.8378342220212671,0.5843823680010491,0.5209923664122137,0.5018469645477134,0.5400763001488663,2620,0.0767299791310889,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,GBM (full)
0.0,0.005972396714119754,0.8250268676250903,0.5659663706277311,0.5316793893129771,0.5125398789887088,0.5507261386443116,2620,-0.017610931820432968,oc_atopen,2016-2026 pooled,Baseline: train mean