Nifty flow forensics, 12–23 Oct 2026: what actually happened on the 300-point falls and the buy-then-sell days

Correction (25-Oct-2026 08:30 IST): an earlier version attributed the 23-Oct 13:38 +137 buy burst (and the recovery from the 12:51 low) to 'Finance Minister's tax comments'. That was wrong: Sitharaman's LTCG/STT remarks were made on Tue 13-Oct-2026 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum (Nifty +358.6 / Sensex +1,109 that day; ET, Indian Express). The 23-Oct 13:55 headline (INDIA New England News) is a repost of the 13-Oct story — the same item appears in our archive at 13-Oct 21:22, 21-Oct 10:49, 22-Oct 04:14 and 23-Oct 13:55. The 23-Oct burst now reads: no confirmed news catalyst, futures-led spike (8.7x futures volume); nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found. The 13-Oct card now lists the FM remarks (afternoon) and the IT rally (HCL Tech +8% on results, TCS +6%) as catalysts. News matching now ignores headlines whose quoted index move does not match the actual Nifty move and keeps only the first copy of a reposted headline. No numbers changed. Added 25-Oct 08:45 IST: section 9: who bought and who sold in the 23-Oct burst and the 13-Oct rally.

Built 2026-10-25 08:26 IST. Research only, not advice; read-only data work, no orders. 9 sessions (20-Oct holiday). Sources: Upstox historical candles (1-min + day; 50 Nifty stocks, Nifty, Bank Nifty, Nifty/Bank Nifty futures, VIX), NSE public archives (security-wise delivery, F&O UDiFF bhavcopy, participant-wise OI, FII derivative stats), NSE provisional FII/DII cash (local feed), local news archive. Sample = 9 sessions: everything below is descriptive, not a tested edge.

Plain-language summary

Short version. The 'heavy buying' days (13-Oct +359, 15-Oct +375, 16-Oct +149) were short covering by FIIs in index futures (Nifty futures OI fell each day while price rose; FIIs cut 3.2k, 12.6k and 5.4k index-futures shorts), with retail clients selling into the rally and FIIs still selling cash on 13/15-Oct. The following sell days (14-Oct, 19-Oct, 22-Oct, 23-Oct) saw FIIs re-add shorts (short buildup on 14, 22, 23-Oct; long unwinding on 12, 19, 21-Oct) while clients bought the dips. FIIs stayed ~89–91% short in index futures the whole fortnight, and their long share rose and fell with Nifty — i.e. the swings were mostly a heavily-short FII book covering and re-shorting, not fresh long money arriving. Most intraday 'heavy' bursts were futures-led and concentrated in 4–5 heavyweights (HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, BHARTIARTL, INFY); cash volume in those stocks was often near normal. The Jio IPO window (21–23 Oct) coincided with a broad-market sell-off far worse than Nifty (median NSE stock −2.2% and −2.4% on 21 and 23-Oct, ~1,000 stocks down >3%), but Nifty-50 delivery value was below its 20-day average and Reliance's 22-Oct drop was on low delivery — so there is no evidence in this data of heavyweights being dumped to fund IPO bids; any IPO-funding effect shows up in mid/small caps (interpretation).

New (25-Oct): Buying at the lows — what happened at each intraday bottom 12–23 Oct, and whether 'heavy buying at the low' is tradable for an option buyer (verdict: FAIL).

Recurring patterns (descriptive, n=9)

Day-by-day: big down days

2026-10-12 (Mon) — Nifty -157

Top 5 draggers (pts): ICICIBANK -23.2 (-1.1%, dlv 76% vs 63), LT -19.0 (-2.0%, dlv 53% vs 61), BHARTIARTL -17.3 (-1.5%, dlv 63% vs 69), ITC -16.7 (-3.0%, dlv 48% vs 57), RELIANCE -16.2 (-1.0%, dlv 54% vs 61)
Top supporters: BAJAJ-AUTO +6.1 (+2.6%, dlv 28% vs 54), BEL +4.3 (+1.6%, dlv 52% vs 58), DRREDDY +4.0 (+2.7%, dlv 46% vs 57)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,593/22,651/22,304/22,363.35 (-157.1, -0.70%), range 347 (high 09:15, low 15:10); Bank Nifty -339 (-0.61%). FII cash ₹-1,708 cr, DII ₹+3,045 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -2,275 contracts, price -226 → Long unwinding; FII index-fut long -2,675 / short -803 (long share 9.0%). Index-weighted delivery 57.7% (20d avg 59.2%). Breadth NSE 1315/1346.

Reading: Gap-up (+73) on Trump's Russia–Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' and RBI rupee steps was sold from the first minute (high 09:15, low 15:10, −347 peak-to-trough). Broad-based: 36 of 50 Nifty stocks fell; RELIANCE, HDFCBANK, LT, ICICIBANK, BHARTIARTL did ~150 of the 321-pt fall. Futures: long unwinding (OI down, price down) — longs exiting rather than aggressive fresh shorts; clients bought +13.4k net index-futures contracts into the fall, Pros sold −13.8k.

2026-10-19 (Mon) — Nifty -257

Top 5 draggers (pts): HDFCBANK -55.6 (-2.3%, dlv 42% vs 61), AXISBANK -33.4 (-4.2%, dlv 44% vs 63), ICICIBANK -24.8 (-1.1%, dlv 48% vs 62), INFY -23.3 (-2.6%, dlv 47% vs 55), BHARTIARTL -19.6 (-1.6%, dlv 48% vs 69)
Top supporters: SBIN +9.7 (+1.2%, dlv 49% vs 55), LT +8.7 (+1.0%, dlv 38% vs 61), JSWSTEEL +5.3 (+2.1%, dlv 56% vs 55)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 23,151/23,175/22,845/22,888.95 (-257.2, -1.11%), range 330 (high 09:18, low 13:47); Bank Nifty -356 (-0.64%). FII cash ₹-1,149 cr, DII ₹+3,201 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -22 contracts, price -224 → Long unwinding; FII index-fut long -3,305 / short +3,626 (long share 10.4%). Index-weighted delivery 48.1% (20d avg 59.3%). Breadth NSE 491/2182.

Reading: 'Next-day heavy selling' after the two short-covering days: −257, high at 09:18, low 13:47 (−330). Driven by bank Q2 results over the weekend: HDFCBANK −2.3% (record-low margins, deputy MD exit) −56 pts, AXISBANK −4.2% −33, ICICIBANK −25 (2.6x volume). 09:24–09:28 was the single biggest burst (−150 pts in 5 min). Long unwinding in futures; FIIs added 3.6k shorts and cut 3.3k longs (net −6.9k), clients bought +10.9k. Delivery was the lowest of the period (48% vs 59%) — mostly intraday/derivative selling, not delivery dumping.

2026-10-21 (Wed) — Nifty -78

Top 5 draggers (pts): BAJFINANCE -18.6 (-3.3%, dlv 56% vs 62), HDFCBANK -16.7 (-0.7%, dlv 61% vs 60), AXISBANK -16.1 (-2.1%, dlv 63% vs 61), ETERNAL -12.3 (-2.5%, dlv 56% vs 59), SBIN -9.3 (-1.1%, dlv 48% vs 55)
Top supporters: INFY +28.5 (+3.3%, dlv 50% vs 54), TCS +15.4 (+2.8%, dlv 46% vs 49), BHARTIARTL +10.8 (+0.9%, dlv 71% vs 67)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 23,016/23,121/22,650/22,811.35 (-77.6, -0.34%), range 471 (high 09:40, low 14:47); Bank Nifty -511 (-0.92%). FII cash ₹+1,022 cr, DII ₹+1,614 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -7,549 contracts, price -152 → Long unwinding; FII index-fut long -4,063 / short -6,365 (long share 9.5%). Index-weighted delivery 57.4% (20d avg 58.2%). Breadth NSE 337/2338.

Reading: Jio IPO day 1. Gap-up +127 (RIL, IT, Asia) to 23,121 at 09:40, then a 471-pt slide to 22,650 at 14:47 in a series of 40–55 pt futures sell bursts every ~30 min (10:02, 11:06, 11:18, 11:38, 12:11, 13:44). Financials did 176 of the 453-pt fall (HDFCBANK −49, ICICIBANK −34), RIL gave back −41 from its high, BAJFINANCE −3.3% after results. Futures: long unwinding (OI −7.5k); FIIs cut both longs (−4.1k) and shorts (−6.4k); FII cash +₹1,022 cr, DII +₹1,614 cr. Broad market far worse than Nifty: median stock −2.2%, 968 stocks down >3%, breadth 337/2,338.

2026-10-22 (Thu) — Nifty -124

Top 5 draggers (pts): HDFCBANK -42.5 (-1.8%, dlv 59% vs 60), RELIANCE -34.8 (-2.0%, dlv 33% vs 58), ETERNAL -12.4 (-2.5%, dlv 47% vs 59), INFY -11.2 (-1.3%, dlv 55% vs 54), ITC -6.4 (-1.2%, dlv 55% vs 58)
Top supporters: ICICIBANK +20.9 (+1.0%, dlv 51% vs 61), BAJFINANCE +9.5 (+1.7%, dlv 60% vs 61), SBIN +6.1 (+0.7%, dlv 44% vs 54)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,688/22,785/22,555/22,687.65 (-123.7, -0.54%), range 230 (high 11:14, low 09:35); Bank Nifty -51 (-0.09%). FII cash ₹-3,459 cr, DII ₹+2,891 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI +13,902 contracts, price -32 → Short buildup; FII index-fut long +2,105 / short +4,777 (long share 9.9%). Index-weighted delivery 51.2% (20d avg 58.1%). Breadth NSE 700/1969.

Reading: Gap-down −124 to 22,555 low (09:35) on Saudi attacks / US diplomats leaving Saudi / oil. Intraday it was two-way (buy bursts +98 at 10:19, +87 at 12:50; sell −77 at 11:42 with 11 stocks at ≥3x volume). Short buildup: futures OI +13.9k contracts (largest add of the period); FIIs added 4.8k shorts; FII cash −₹3,459 cr, DII +₹2,891 cr. HDFCBANK −1.8% on 2.1x volume and delivery value ₹2,486 cr (1.9x normal) = real delivery selling; RIL −2.0% but on low delivery (33% vs 58%) = churn. Also BSE Sensex weekly expiry with closing-auction (CAS) swings reported.

2026-10-23 (Fri) — Nifty -88

Top 5 draggers (pts): SHRIRAMFIN -10.5 (-4.0%, dlv 45% vs 61), KOTAKBANK -10.3 (-1.5%, dlv 68% vs 68), SBIN -9.9 (-1.2%, dlv 52% vs 54), TATASTEEL -8.5 (-2.7%, dlv 45% vs 48), ADANIPORTS -7.8 (-2.7%, dlv 52% vs 61)
Top supporters: ETERNAL +20.3 (+4.3%, dlv 42% vs 59), RELIANCE +7.8 (+0.5%, dlv 51% vs 57), TCS +5.2 (+0.9%, dlv 34% vs 48)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,742/22,787/22,372/22,600.00 (-87.7, -0.39%), range 415 (high 09:16, low 12:51); Bank Nifty -638 (-1.16%). FII cash ₹+888 cr, DII ₹+3,235 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI +3,960 contracts, price -135 → Short buildup; FII index-fut long +2,283 / short +2,166 (long share 10.4%). Index-weighted delivery 54.2% (20d avg 57.9%). Breadth NSE 318/2368.

Reading: Friday: Brent ~$113–114 (Houthi attacks on Saudi, Aramco HQ evacuation reports). Open 22,742 → 22,372 at 12:51 (−415): first hour alone −238 pts; IT (−61), RIL (−31), BHARTIARTL (−31), ICICIBANK (−27) led the fall. 13:38–13:42 the biggest buy burst of the period: +137 futures pts on 8.7x futures volume with 16 Nifty stocks at ≥3x volume (no confirmed news catalyst — futures-led spike; nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found; the 13:55 'Finance Minister's tax comments' headline was a repost of the 13-Oct story) — immediately followed by a −64 sell burst at 13:50. Close via auction +83 above 15:14. Day = short buildup (OI +4.0k); FII cash +₹888 cr, DII +₹3,235 cr; VIX 16.9 (period high). Broad market: median stock −2.4%, 1,056 stocks down >3%.

Day-by-day: the 'heavy buying' days and the day after

2026-10-13 (Tue) — Nifty +359

Top 5 draggers (pts): KOTAKBANK -7.0 (-1.0%, dlv 71% vs 68), ETERNAL -4.0 (-0.8%, dlv 54% vs 57), MARUTI -1.9 (-0.6%, dlv 67% vs 55), MAXHEALTH -0.8 (-0.6%, dlv 52% vs 55), TATACONSUM +0.2 (+0.1%, dlv 73% vs 61)
Top supporters: TCS +32.6 (+6.8%, dlv 44% vs 46), INFY +32.2 (+4.1%, dlv 54% vs 55), ICICIBANK +31.3 (+1.5%, dlv 55% vs 63)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,364/22,722/22,288/22,721.95 (+358.6, +1.60%), range 434 (high 15:12, low 09:15); Bank Nifty +563 (+1.03%). FII cash ₹-1,305 cr, DII ₹+2,439 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -3,565 contracts, price +448 → Short covering; FII index-fut long +3,148 / short -3,217 (long share 9.8%). Index-weighted delivery 55.7% (20d avg 59.1%). Breadth NSE 1620/1038.

Reading: 'Heavy buying' day #1: +359, closed at the day high (15:12 high, then auction). Catalysts: IT rally on results in the morning (HCLTECH +8.4% on Q2, TCS +6.8%, INFY +4.1%; Nifty 22,321 → 22,566 by 10:00), then FM Sitharaman's LTCG/STT remarks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in the afternoon (first headlines 14:25 IST; Nifty 22,553 at 14:00 → 22,700 at 15:14). IT and HDFCBANK/ICICIBANK supplied ~126 pts. Futures OI fell while price rose = short covering; FIIs cut 3.2k index-futures shorts and added 3.1k longs (net +6.4k), clients sold −13.1k. FIIs still sold ₹1,305 cr cash. HDFCBANK/ICICIBANK cash volume was only 0.6x normal — the rally was futures/short-covering led, not heavy delivery buying.

2026-10-15 (Thu) — Nifty +375

Top 5 draggers (pts): NESTLEIND -16.5 (-7.8%, dlv 26% vs 61), LT -2.5 (-0.3%, dlv 55% vs 61), ADANIENT -1.9 (-0.8%, dlv 23% vs 40), SHRIRAMFIN -1.8 (-0.7%, dlv 53% vs 63), TRENT -1.6 (-0.7%, dlv 49% vs 50)
Top supporters: ICICIBANK +78.6 (+3.8%, dlv 61% vs 63), RELIANCE +57.4 (+3.4%, dlv 57% vs 61), HDFCBANK +53.3 (+2.3%, dlv 60% vs 61)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,671/23,056/22,637/22,997.35 (+374.6, +1.66%), range 419 (high 13:38, low 09:15); Bank Nifty +494 (+0.89%). FII cash ₹-5,285 cr, DII ₹+3,319 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -19,731 contracts, price +336 → Short covering; FII index-fut long +4,267 / short -12,603 (long share 10.8%). Index-weighted delivery 57.2% (20d avg 59.1%). Breadth NSE 899/1755.

Reading: 'Heavy buying' day #2: +375 on the Jio IPO price band (RIL +3.4%) plus banks (ICICIBANK +79, RIL +57, HDFCBANK +53, BHARTIARTL +39 pts). Futures OI −19.7k contracts with price up = the biggest short-covering day of the period; FIIs covered 12.6k index-futures shorts (net +16.9k) while selling ₹5,285 cr in cash; clients sold −26.0k. Broad market did not join: median NSE stock −0.7%, 1,755 decliners. NESTLEIND −7.8% after results.

2026-10-16 (Fri) — Nifty +149

Top 5 draggers (pts): BSE -5.8 (-1.9%, dlv 34% vs 42), RELIANCE -5.4 (-0.3%, dlv 60% vs 61), INDIGO -4.5 (-1.9%, dlv 37% vs 54), BEL -2.7 (-0.9%, dlv 59% vs 58), ONGC -2.2 (-1.2%, dlv 73% vs 63)
Top supporters: INFY +39.2 (+4.6%, dlv 55% vs 54), BHARTIARTL +33.5 (+2.8%, dlv 81% vs 68), TCS +25.9 (+4.9%, dlv 57% vs 48)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 23,065/23,150/22,914/23,146.15 (+148.8, +0.65%), range 236 (high 10:36, low 09:36); Bank Nifty +34 (+0.06%). FII cash ₹+1,166 cr, DII ₹-3,661 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI -2,705 contracts, price +134 → Short covering; FII index-fut long +1,417 / short -5,411 (long share 11.3%). Index-weighted delivery 61.5% (20d avg 59.0%). Breadth NSE 1581/1071.

Reading: +149, still short covering (OI −2.7k). Unusual cash flow: FII +₹1,166 cr, DII −₹3,661 cr. BHARTIARTL +2.8% on 4.2x volume and 81% delivery (delivery value ₹3,891 cr vs ₹862 cr normal — consistent with a block trade, not verified); TECHM +8.5% after results/bonus. Highest index-weighted delivery of the period (61.5%).

2026-10-14 (Wed) — Nifty -99

Top 5 draggers (pts): ICICIBANK -33.4 (-1.6%, dlv 68% vs 62), BAJFINANCE -15.2 (-2.6%, dlv 65% vs 63), M&M -13.9 (-2.5%, dlv 61% vs 62), SHRIRAMFIN -11.1 (-3.8%, dlv 51% vs 64), HDFCBANK -10.9 (-0.5%, dlv 60% vs 61)
Top supporters: INFY +19.8 (+2.4%, dlv 55% vs 54), RELIANCE +11.2 (+0.7%, dlv 51% vs 61), TCS +8.0 (+1.6%, dlv 62% vs 46)

Facts: Nifty O/H/L/C 22,716/22,758/22,559/22,622.70 (-99.2, -0.44%), range 199 (high 09:48, low 13:15); Bank Nifty -165 (-0.30%). FII cash ₹-1,857 cr, DII ₹+2,670 cr. Nifty futures (all expiries) OI +2,282 contracts, price -186 → Short buildup; FII index-fut long -1,134 / short +6,068 (long share 9.4%). Index-weighted delivery 59.7% (20d avg 59.1%). Breadth NSE 1519/1141.

Reading: Next-day reversal: −99 with short buildup (futures OI +2.3k contracts, price −186). FIIs added 6.1k index-futures shorts (net −7.2k), clients bought +15.5k. ICICIBANK (−33 pts), BAJFINANCE, M&M, SHRIRAMFIN led; IT kept rising (INFY +20). Delivery was normal (59.7% vs 59.1%).

1. Index, futures and Bank Nifty (official)

Open High Low 15:14 (last real) Official close Auction jump Chg Range Gap High @ Low @ BankNifty BN chg VIX
date
2026-10-12 22,593.20 22,651.10 22,304.45 22,316.85 22,363.35 46.50 -157.10 346.65 72.75 09:15 15:10 54,918.00 -338.65 15.25
2026-10-13 22,364.15 22,721.95 22,288.45 22,699.55 22,721.95 22.40 358.60 433.50 0.80 15:12 09:15 55,481.05 563.05 14.12
2026-10-14 22,715.75 22,757.95 22,558.95 22,625.15 22,622.70 -2.45 -99.25 199.00 -6.20 09:48 13:15 55,316.00 -165.05 14.63
2026-10-15 22,671.30 23,056.40 22,637.40 22,938.85 22,997.35 58.50 374.65 419.00 48.60 13:38 09:15 55,810.50 494.50 14.03
2026-10-16 23,065.10 23,149.85 22,913.80 23,119.00 23,146.15 27.15 148.80 236.05 67.75 10:36 09:36 55,844.00 33.50 14.06
2026-10-19 23,150.85 23,175.25 22,845.00 22,873.55 22,888.95 15.40 -257.20 330.25 4.70 09:18 13:47 55,488.10 -355.90 14.77
2026-10-21 23,016.00 23,120.90 22,649.90 22,739.20 22,811.35 72.15 -77.60 471.00 127.05 09:40 14:47 54,976.90 -511.20 15.68
2026-10-22 22,687.75 22,785.00 22,554.85 22,667.25 22,687.65 20.40 -123.70 230.15 -123.60 11:14 09:35 54,925.70 -51.20 15.76
2026-10-23 22,742.20 22,787.25 22,372.00 22,517.00 22,600.00 83.00 -87.65 415.25 54.55 09:16 12:51 54,287.35 -638.35 16.86

Auction jump = official close − 15:14 last real print. Buildup rule: price↑OI↑ long buildup; price↓OI↑ short buildup; price↑OI↓ short covering; price↓OI↓ long unwinding (OI summed over all expiries, so Oct→Nov rollover nets out).

NF OI (contracts) NF OI chg NF px chg NF vol (contracts) NF basis (near−spot) NF buildup BNF OI chg BNF px chg BNF buildup
date
2026-10-12 332,268.0 -2,275.0 -226.1 48375 23.2 Long unwinding -848.0 -462.8 Long unwinding
2026-10-13 328,703.0 -3,565.0 448.3 70571 112.8 Short covering -1,213.0 761.4 Short covering
2026-10-14 330,985.0 2,282.0 -186.3 60579 25.8 Short buildup 677.0 -297.4 Short buildup
2026-10-15 311,254.0 -19,731.0 336.3 91456 -12.5 Short covering -114.0 378.6 Short covering
2026-10-16 308,549.0 -2,705.0 134.4 52872 -27.0 Short covering 1,294.0 58.6 Long buildup
2026-10-19 308,527.0 -22.0 -224.0 61593 6.2 Long unwinding -1,092.0 -341.6 Long unwinding
2026-10-21 300,978.0 -7,549.0 -151.9 90617 -68.0 Long unwinding -597.0 -587.8 Long unwinding
2026-10-22 314,880.0 13,902.0 -32.0 134545 23.6 Short buildup 4,141.0 -27.2 Short buildup
2026-10-23 318,840.0 3,960.0 -134.7 159040 -23.4 Short buildup 6,071.0 -719.2 Short buildup

2. Stock contribution to the Nifty move

Points = implied pts-per-₹ × (official close − previous official close). Sum vs actual Nifty change: residual within ±1.5 pts every day. Implied weights: top 10 HDFCBANK 10.1%, ICICIBANK 9.5%, RELIANCE 7.5%, BHARTIARTL 5.5%, LT 4.1%, INFY 3.9%, SBIN 3.7%, AXISBANK 3.3%, KOTAKBANK 3.0%, TCS 2.5% (full list: implied_weights.csv).

Where in the day (gap / windows / auction)

window gap 09:15-10:15 10:15-13:00 13:00-15:14 auction 15:15-close
date
2026-10-12 72.8 -107.2 -106.7 -62.5 46.5
2026-10-13 0.8 194.8 -18.2 158.8 22.4
2026-10-14 -6.2 -28.6 -18.2 -43.8 -2.5
2026-10-15 48.6 230.2 114.5 -77.1 58.5
2026-10-16 67.8 29.2 2.4 22.3 27.2
2026-10-19 4.7 -90.4 -140.0 -46.9 15.4
2026-10-21 127.0 -66.8 -177.6 -32.4 72.1
2026-10-22 -123.6 -19.8 42.6 -43.2 20.4
2026-10-23 54.5 -237.6 -80.5 93.0 83.0

Top draggers / supporters per window

nifty draggers supporters
date window
2026-10-12 09:15-10:15 -107.2 BHARTIARTL -25.7, RELIANCE -17.1, ICICIBANK -13.5, ITC -11.1 BAJAJ-AUTO +4.7, M&M +4.0, TATASTEEL +3.2
10:15-13:00 -106.7 RELIANCE -15.5, LT -12.7, ICICIBANK -9.3, TATASTEEL -6.9 BHARTIARTL +5.0, DRREDDY +1.7, BSE +1.7
13:00-15:14 -62.5 HDFCBANK -12.0, TCS -7.2, LT -5.4, ULTRACEMCO -5.0 KOTAKBANK +2.9, ICICIBANK +2.8, CIPLA +1.7
2026-10-13 09:15-10:15 +194.8 MARUTI -2.5, KOTAKBANK -0.9, NTPC -0.9, ULTRACEMCO -0.6 ICICIBANK +19.3, TCS +19.3, HDFCBANK +18.5
10:15-13:00 -18.2 RELIANCE -9.7, ETERNAL -8.1, LT -7.2, KOTAKBANK -6.2 INFY +7.7, HCLTECH +5.4, HINDUNILVR +3.5
13:00-15:14 +158.8 NESTLEIND -1.4, ETERNAL -0.6, JSWSTEEL -0.4, SBILIFE -0.3 ICICIBANK +15.9, SHRIRAMFIN +15.3, RELIANCE +14.6
2026-10-14 09:15-10:15 -28.6 ICICIBANK -9.6, LT -9.1, SHRIRAMFIN -8.8, M&M -8.5 INFY +10.3, TCS +9.5, HDFCBANK +6.8
10:15-13:00 -18.2 ICICIBANK -5.4, INFY -5.1, AXISBANK -5.0, HDFCBANK -4.6 RELIANCE +14.5, BHARTIARTL +9.1, ADANIENT +2.5
13:00-15:14 -43.8 BHARTIARTL -11.2, HDFCBANK -8.1, ICICIBANK -7.0, M&M -6.2 AXISBANK +9.1, INFY +7.5, TECHM +3.6
2026-10-15 09:15-10:15 +230.2 ADANIENT -1.7, BEL -0.7, TRENT -0.4, TITAN -0.4 BHARTIARTL +40.5, ICICIBANK +31.7, RELIANCE +19.6
10:15-13:00 +114.5 NESTLEIND -7.8, INFY -6.2, TRENT -2.8, BSE -1.8 ICICIBANK +28.3, HDFCBANK +18.8, RELIANCE +15.8
13:00-15:14 -77.1 BHARTIARTL -8.3, RELIANCE -7.0, NESTLEIND -6.9, ITC -5.7 BSE +6.9, TECHM +2.2, KOTAKBANK +2.1
2026-10-16 09:15-10:15 +29.2 ICICIBANK -13.9, RELIANCE -11.5, BSE -8.8, ITC -4.1 INFY +19.7, BHARTIARTL +15.0, HDFCBANK +13.7
10:15-13:00 +2.4 HDFCBANK -18.0, KOTAKBANK -10.4, INDIGO -7.0, TATASTEEL -3.1 ICICIBANK +10.5, BHARTIARTL +7.7, BAJFINANCE +4.7
13:00-15:14 +22.3 LT -2.2, JSWSTEEL -1.7, BHARTIARTL -1.6, BAJAJFINSV -1.6 INFY +8.4, TCS +4.7, ICICIBANK +4.5
2026-10-19 09:15-10:15 -90.4 HDFCBANK -68.6, ICICIBANK -22.6, AXISBANK -14.2, BHARTIARTL -9.9 RELIANCE +14.4, SBIN +12.1, ULTRACEMCO +5.2
10:15-13:00 -140.0 RELIANCE -20.5, BHARTIARTL -12.4, INFY -11.1, HDFCBANK -7.6 JSWSTEEL +5.1, CIPLA -0.1, EICHERMOT -0.2
13:00-15:14 -46.9 ICICIBANK -10.5, BHARTIARTL -7.8, RELIANCE -7.0, ULTRACEMCO -6.5 HDFCBANK +5.6, SBIN +4.5, M&M +3.6
2026-10-21 09:15-10:15 -66.8 BAJFINANCE -15.7, ETERNAL -11.8, ICICIBANK -10.7, M&M -10.5 INFY +10.2, RELIANCE +8.5, TCS +6.5
10:15-13:00 -177.6 HDFCBANK -24.7, ICICIBANK -14.4, AXISBANK -13.0, BHARTIARTL -9.7 TECHM +1.9, TCS +0.9, SBILIFE +0.5
13:00-15:14 -32.4 RELIANCE -11.7, ICICIBANK -6.0, LT -5.1, ETERNAL -2.7 M&M +3.6, INFY +3.1, BHARTIARTL +2.4
2026-10-22 09:15-10:15 -19.8 HDFCBANK -16.7, RELIANCE -12.7, TCS -4.1, BEL -3.5 ICICIBANK +11.9, BAJFINANCE +11.7, KOTAKBANK +4.2
10:15-13:00 +42.6 INFY -11.1, HDFCBANK -9.2, RELIANCE -4.8, ETERNAL -3.8 ICICIBANK +16.9, LT +10.0, BAJFINANCE +6.7
13:00-15:14 -43.2 BHARTIARTL -9.1, ETERNAL -7.7, RELIANCE -5.7, LT -4.7 INFY +2.1, HCLTECH +1.8, BAJFINANCE +1.3
2026-10-23 09:15-10:15 -237.6 ICICIBANK -18.6, HDFCBANK -13.5, INFY -12.7, LT -12.0 TCS +1.5, DRREDDY +0.3, ASIANPAINT +0.0
10:15-13:00 -80.5 ICICIBANK -15.8, BHARTIARTL -15.4, SBIN -9.1, TCS -8.6 HDFCBANK +15.0, ETERNAL +12.6, LT +4.2
13:00-15:14 +93.0 HDFCBANK -4.9, INFY -4.6, JSWSTEEL -2.6, TCS -2.4 RELIANCE +17.3, BHARTIARTL +8.5, M&M +5.6

The main fall and the rebound after the low (peak-to-trough, real minutes only)

start end peak_to_trough sum_components banks_fin reliance it top5
date leg
2026-10-12 fall 09:15 15:10 -346.6 -320.8 -99.3 -39.8 -31.1 RELIANCE -39.8, HDFCBANK -32.8, LT -27.5, ICICIBANK -23.7, BHARTIARTL -23.7
rebound_after_low 15:10 15:14 +12.4 +5.4 +4.1 +1.4 +1.7 HDFCBANK +4.6, KOTAKBANK +1.6, MAXHEALTH +1.5, RELIANCE +1.4, INFY +1.1
2026-10-13 fall 09:55 11:29 -100.4 -83.4 -27.2 -13.5 -0.8 RELIANCE -13.5, HDFCBANK -13.0, BHARTIARTL -9.0, ETERNAL -7.8, INFY -4.2
rebound_after_low 11:29 15:14 +218.8 +215.4 +83.1 +18.3 +32.1 ICICIBANK +18.6, RELIANCE +18.3, INFY +17.0, BHARTIARTL +15.1, SHRIRAMFIN +14.9
2026-10-14 fall 09:48 13:15 -199.0 -172.7 -94.1 +3.7 -14.7 HDFCBANK -25.4, ICICIBANK -19.6, LT -8.2, ETERNAL -7.8, BAJFINANCE -7.2
rebound_after_low 13:15 15:14 +66.2 +41.6 +14.3 +1.1 +11.3 AXISBANK +12.7, INFY +7.3, SBIN +4.4, LT +4.0, SUNPHARMA +3.4
2026-10-15 fall 13:38 15:13 -130.4 -114.7 -28.2 -14.4 -2.7 RELIANCE -14.4, BHARTIARTL -12.3, HDFCBANK -7.6, ICICIBANK -6.5, LT -5.6
rebound_after_low 15:13 15:14 +12.8 +4.7 +0.3 +0.4 -1.7 BHARTIARTL +2.3, KOTAKBANK +1.6, ETERNAL +0.7, HDFCBANK +0.7, LT +0.6
2026-10-16 fall 09:15 09:36 -162.8 -131.5 -75.1 -18.5 +24.6 ICICIBANK -18.7, RELIANCE -18.5, HDFCBANK -15.2, AXISBANK -8.8, LT -7.3
rebound_after_low 09:36 15:14 +205.2 +200.8 +68.9 +19.2 +29.3 ICICIBANK +21.4, RELIANCE +19.2, BHARTIARTL +16.5, BAJFINANCE +13.1, M&M +12.2
2026-10-19 fall 09:18 13:47 -330.2 -307.9 -129.3 -18.6 -27.9 ICICIBANK -44.9, HDFCBANK -32.8, BHARTIARTL -31.9, RELIANCE -18.6, INFY -15.0
rebound_after_low 13:47 15:14 +28.5 +13.5 +24.0 -4.8 +4.7 HDFCBANK +12.5, SBIN +5.4, KOTAKBANK +4.9, M&M +2.0, TCS +1.9
2026-10-21 fall 09:40 14:47 -471.0 -452.2 -176.2 -41.1 -5.7 HDFCBANK -49.1, RELIANCE -41.1, ICICIBANK -33.9, ETERNAL -22.8, BHARTIARTL -22.7
rebound_after_low 14:47 15:14 +89.3 +79.7 +22.8 +6.8 +2.8 HDFCBANK +10.6, RELIANCE +6.8, M&M +6.5, ETERNAL +4.6, BHARTIARTL +4.1
2026-10-22 fall 11:14 12:18 -199.7 -188.9 -58.6 -13.6 -21.5 HDFCBANK -25.2, BHARTIARTL -14.3, RELIANCE -13.6, INFY -11.5, ICICIBANK -8.5
rebound_after_low 12:18 15:14 +81.9 +79.4 +30.6 +1.3 +15.1 ICICIBANK +9.9, INFY +6.3, BAJFINANCE +5.2, SBIN +4.7, TCS +4.2
2026-10-23 fall 09:16 12:51 -415.2 -411.7 -129.0 -31.1 -60.6 RELIANCE -31.1, BHARTIARTL -30.5, ICICIBANK -27.1, INFY -25.7, TCS -18.5
rebound_after_low 12:51 15:14 +145.0 +142.5 +28.0 +20.0 -3.5 RELIANCE +20.0, BHARTIARTL +12.3, ETERNAL +8.2, M&M +7.9, LT +7.5

3. Volume forensics

Per panel: black = Nifty spot (to 15:14); blue bars = Nifty futures 1m volume ÷ its own 20-day same-minute average (capped 10); orange = index-weighted cash volume ratio of the 50 stocks; shaded = 5-minute futures bursts (|move| ≥40 pts & avg vol ratio ≥2x; green buy, red sell; label = futures pts); triangles = single-stock 1m volume spikes ≥5x that moved Nifty ≥1 pt.

Futures bursts (5-minute) — who moved the index

end side fut_pts fut_vol_ratio classify cash_pts_sum top5 top5_volratio n_stocks_vol_ge3x fut_oi_chg_contracts
date start
2026-10-12 09:50 09:54 SELL burst -44.7 2.4 fresh shorts -45.9 LT -4.9, RELIANCE -4.3, HDFCBANK -4.0, BHARTIARTL -2.6, SBIN -2.4 LT 1.0x, RELIANCE 0.8x, HDFCBANK 0.5x, BHARTIARTL 5.5x, SBIN 1.3x 4 19.0
11:12 11:16 SELL burst -41.1 4.8 long unwinding -31.1 RELIANCE -4.1, ICICIBANK -3.7, HDFCBANK -3.1, LT -3.0, BHARTIARTL -2.7 RELIANCE 1.6x, ICICIBANK 0.8x, HDFCBANK 0.7x, LT 2.8x, BHARTIARTL 1.1x 3 -95.0
2026-10-13 09:15 09:19 BUY burst 117.9 2.9 n/a (includes open) 74.1 HDFCBANK +30.5, TCS +15.1, HCLTECH +8.9, INFY +8.8, RELIANCE +4.0 HDFCBANK 0.7x, TCS 1.9x, HCLTECH 9.2x, INFY 0.9x, RELIANCE 1.0x 6 —
09:38 09:42 BUY burst 43.6 3.1 short covering 49.9 INFY +5.9, HCLTECH +3.9, TCS +3.8, ETERNAL +2.8, LT +2.7 INFY 1.4x, HCLTECH 8.0x, TCS 2.5x, ETERNAL 1.5x, LT 2.7x 6 -857.0
14:29 14:33 BUY burst 53.3 2.4 fresh longs 41.1 HDFCBANK +7.4, RELIANCE +3.4, ICICIBANK +3.4, ETERNAL +3.1, AXISBANK +2.6 HDFCBANK 0.8x, RELIANCE 0.7x, ICICIBANK 0.5x, ETERNAL 2.5x, AXISBANK 0.7x 7 91.0
2026-10-14 09:17 09:21 SELL burst -62.5 3.4 fresh shorts -45.7 HDFCBANK -9.7, RELIANCE -4.8, ICICIBANK -4.8, BAJFINANCE -2.7, LT -2.5 HDFCBANK 0.5x, RELIANCE 0.6x, ICICIBANK 1.4x, BAJFINANCE 0.8x, LT 1.4x 3 1,981.0
12:58 13:02 SELL burst -69.2 5.4 fresh shorts -63.0 RELIANCE -6.5, HDFCBANK -5.9, ICICIBANK -4.8, LT -3.4, BHARTIARTL -3.4 RELIANCE 1.5x, HDFCBANK 1.0x, ICICIBANK 1.6x, LT 2.9x, BHARTIARTL 1.9x 10 98.0
13:43 13:47 BUY burst 50.0 2.5 short covering 43.8 ICICIBANK +4.6, RELIANCE +4.3, LT +2.8, BHARTIARTL +2.7, HDFCBANK +2.1 ICICIBANK 1.2x, RELIANCE 0.9x, LT 1.0x, BHARTIARTL 3.1x, HDFCBANK 0.6x 4 -201.0
2026-10-15 09:50 09:54 BUY burst 45.7 3.3 short covering 51.3 BHARTIARTL +10.4, RELIANCE +6.5, AXISBANK +3.6, ICICIBANK +3.4, M&M +2.7 BHARTIARTL 7.7x, RELIANCE 1.4x, AXISBANK 1.7x, ICICIBANK 1.3x, M&M 2.5x 6 -86.0
11:24 11:28 BUY burst 44.4 2.1 fresh longs 37.5 HDFCBANK +5.1, BHARTIARTL +4.9, RELIANCE +3.7, SBIN +3.7, LT +3.1 HDFCBANK 1.6x, BHARTIARTL 3.5x, RELIANCE 1.8x, SBIN 3.1x, LT 2.7x 5 61.0
2026-10-16 10:14 10:18 BUY burst 57.5 5.2 short covering 59.8 HDFCBANK +6.1, BHARTIARTL +5.9, INFY +5.3, ICICIBANK +4.8, RELIANCE +4.3 HDFCBANK 2.5x, BHARTIARTL 9.3x, INFY 8.0x, ICICIBANK 2.3x, RELIANCE 2.6x 9 -148.0
2026-10-19 09:24 09:28 SELL burst -149.8 2.6 fresh shorts -148.1 BHARTIARTL -13.5, RELIANCE -12.7, ICICIBANK -11.4, HDFCBANK -6.9, M&M -6.3 BHARTIARTL 2.2x, RELIANCE 1.1x, ICICIBANK 6.3x, HDFCBANK 1.8x, M&M 1.1x 7 300.0
2026-10-21 09:15 09:19 BUY burst 67.0 2.2 n/a (includes open) 149.5 RELIANCE +34.8, ICICIBANK +28.2, INFY +24.0, TCS +13.5, BHARTIARTL +8.1 RELIANCE 2.6x, ICICIBANK 3.8x, INFY 1.6x, TCS 1.1x, BHARTIARTL 1.0x 4 —
10:02 10:06 SELL burst -53.5 2.3 long unwinding -52.9 ICICIBANK -6.0, ETERNAL -5.9, M&M -3.5, HDFCBANK -2.8, TITAN -2.1 ICICIBANK 1.3x, ETERNAL 2.7x, M&M 1.0x, HDFCBANK 0.8x, TITAN 1.1x 2 -162.0
11:06 11:10 SELL burst -46.5 2.1 fresh shorts -47.8 ICICIBANK -9.0, HDFCBANK -5.8, RELIANCE -3.7, INFY -3.6, BAJFINANCE -2.4 ICICIBANK 1.7x, HDFCBANK 0.4x, RELIANCE 0.6x, INFY 3.1x, BAJFINANCE 10.5x 4 213.0
11:18 11:22 SELL burst -54.8 2.9 long unwinding -50.7 HDFCBANK -7.4, ICICIBANK -4.0, RELIANCE -3.4, INFY -2.3, M&M -2.1 HDFCBANK 1.1x, ICICIBANK 2.6x, RELIANCE 1.3x, INFY 2.9x, M&M 1.1x 3 -15.0
11:38 11:42 SELL burst -42.6 4.3 fresh shorts -31.9 ICICIBANK -4.8, HDFCBANK -4.1, LT -1.8, M&M -1.7, KOTAKBANK -1.5 ICICIBANK 2.0x, HDFCBANK 0.8x, LT 1.7x, M&M 1.5x, KOTAKBANK 0.4x 5 229.0
12:11 12:15 SELL burst -47.9 3.1 fresh shorts -45.4 ICICIBANK -8.2, HDFCBANK -5.6, SBIN -3.4, RELIANCE -3.1, BHARTIARTL -2.8 ICICIBANK 1.9x, HDFCBANK 2.1x, SBIN 1.5x, RELIANCE 1.4x, BHARTIARTL 1.0x 1 74.0
13:44 13:48 SELL burst -41.0 2.1 fresh shorts -36.1 ICICIBANK -6.5, HDFCBANK -4.0, ITC -2.1, TCS -1.7, M&M -1.4 ICICIBANK 1.1x, HDFCBANK 0.8x, ITC 2.0x, TCS 1.7x, M&M 0.4x 3 355.0
2026-10-22 10:19 10:23 BUY burst 98.2 4.3 fresh longs 77.6 HDFCBANK +10.4, RELIANCE +7.5, ICICIBANK +5.6, BHARTIARTL +4.4, AXISBANK +4.3 HDFCBANK 1.8x, RELIANCE 0.8x, ICICIBANK 2.0x, BHARTIARTL 1.3x, AXISBANK 1.0x 5 2,552.0
10:30 10:34 BUY burst 51.7 3.1 fresh longs 47.4 ICICIBANK +8.2, RELIANCE +4.3, HDFCBANK +3.3, BAJFINANCE +2.6, M&M +2.2 ICICIBANK 1.0x, RELIANCE 0.5x, HDFCBANK 1.8x, BAJFINANCE 1.7x, M&M 0.7x 1 480.0
11:42 11:46 SELL burst -76.9 3.1 fresh shorts -79.3 BHARTIARTL -9.9, ICICIBANK -8.7, RELIANCE -7.5, HDFCBANK -6.9, LT -5.3 BHARTIARTL 2.7x, ICICIBANK 5.0x, RELIANCE 3.6x, HDFCBANK 3.6x, LT 3.2x 11 178.0
12:50 12:54 BUY burst 87.0 3.4 fresh longs 90.6 HDFCBANK +8.7, RELIANCE +7.4, BHARTIARTL +5.9, ICICIBANK +4.8, LT +4.4 HDFCBANK 3.4x, RELIANCE 1.3x, BHARTIARTL 1.3x, ICICIBANK 1.0x, LT 1.4x 4 371.0
13:24 13:28 SELL burst -46.7 2.0 fresh shorts -39.4 ICICIBANK -6.0, HDFCBANK -5.4, RELIANCE -4.5, SBIN -2.2, LT -1.8 ICICIBANK 2.0x, HDFCBANK 4.3x, RELIANCE 1.6x, SBIN 1.0x, LT 1.5x 1 108.0
2026-10-23 10:18 10:22 BUY burst 53.1 2.1 fresh longs 59.6 HDFCBANK +6.4, ICICIBANK +5.1, LT +3.2, RELIANCE +2.8, M&M +2.6 HDFCBANK 0.5x, ICICIBANK 2.0x, LT 2.9x, RELIANCE 1.8x, M&M 0.7x 3 1,049.0
10:55 10:59 SELL burst -58.7 2.1 fresh shorts -47.5 ICICIBANK -5.3, HDFCBANK -4.3, INFY -3.9, RELIANCE -3.7, BHARTIARTL -2.0 ICICIBANK 0.7x, HDFCBANK 0.4x, INFY 4.0x, RELIANCE 0.6x, BHARTIARTL 2.2x 4 370.0
13:38 13:42 BUY burst 136.6 8.7 fresh longs 124.7 RELIANCE +13.8, ICICIBANK +10.2, HDFCBANK +8.1, LT +6.9, INFY +6.6 RELIANCE 3.1x, ICICIBANK 1.1x, HDFCBANK 1.6x, LT 2.3x, INFY 3.2x 16 2,056.0
13:50 13:54 SELL burst -64.4 2.1 fresh shorts -56.3 HDFCBANK -6.1, ICICIBANK -5.9, RELIANCE -4.0, M&M -2.6, BHARTIARTL -2.5 HDFCBANK 0.8x, ICICIBANK 0.5x, RELIANCE 0.7x, M&M 0.8x, BHARTIARTL 1.4x 3 918.0

classify = sign of Oct+Nov futures OI change over the burst from Upstox 1m OI (lagged → indicative only). top5 = stock contributions (Nifty pts) in the burst; volratio = those stocks' cash volume vs 20-day same-minute avg.

Buy/sell pressure and delivery (index-weighted, Nifty 50)

Vol vs 20d (wtd) Up-minute vol share (wtd) 15:14 vs VWAP % (wtd) Delivery % (wtd) Delivery % 20d Nifty50 delivery ₹cr 20d Nifty50 turnover ₹cr 20d Nifty50 adv dec
date
2026-10-12 0.90 0.49 -0.43 57.68 59.15 13,233.05 15,374.64 22,518.12 26,493.24 13 36
2026-10-13 1.15 0.56 0.64 55.75 59.09 15,328.98 15,447.25 29,343.73 26,597.95 46 4
2026-10-14 1.17 0.49 -0.20 59.70 59.05 17,811.41 15,688.99 30,396.70 26,956.50 16 34
2026-10-15 1.41 0.54 -0.00 57.18 59.12 19,442.39 15,809.26 35,084.34 27,094.55 42 8
2026-10-16 1.45 0.51 0.16 61.47 58.99 22,592.18 16,172.37 38,621.86 27,801.80 26 24
2026-10-19 1.19 0.48 -0.50 48.10 59.29 14,166.54 16,781.01 29,268.11 28,756.45 9 41
2026-10-21 1.06 0.48 -0.46 57.39 58.19 16,110.60 16,385.06 28,920.19 28,630.02 16 34
2026-10-22 1.18 0.50 0.01 51.20 58.07 16,268.47 16,618.25 31,230.58 29,088.71 14 36
2026-10-23 1.04 0.49 -0.03 54.17 57.85 15,533.70 16,866.68 29,859.76 29,630.77 14 36

Up-minute vol share = volume on minutes closing above the previous minute ÷ (up+down) volume, 09:15–15:14. Delivery % from NSE sec_bhavdata_full (EQ series).

Biggest movers on each big day: contribution, volume, delivery

2026-10-12

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
ICICIBANK -23.21 -1.11 0.93 0.63 -0.20 75.69 62.63 874.57 813.32 74.50 13:13
LT -19.05 -2.05 0.75 0.44 -0.76 53.35 60.65 229.16 383.46 7.43 11:15
BHARTIARTL -17.35 -1.46 0.85 0.42 -0.13 63.04 68.97 538.58 799.34 17.03 09:51
ITC -16.72 -3.05 0.80 0.33 -0.90 47.83 56.88 184.95 280.92 14.47 11:03
RELIANCE -16.21 -0.97 0.92 0.44 -0.55 53.63 61.28 706.71 985.57 6.08 12:40
SBIN -15.75 -1.89 1.12 0.40 -0.26 53.89 55.21 472.67 483.80 20.96 11:40
HDFCBANK -7.75 -0.33 0.57 0.53 -0.40 55.40 60.71 711.50 1,422.06 5.11 10:24
HINDUNILVR -7.09 -1.94 1.20 0.45 -0.54 68.47 60.35 185.44 151.86 15.42 12:25
TCS -6.99 -1.44 0.98 0.46 -1.38 42.01 46.83 320.40 368.51 10.01 13:02
BAJAJ-AUTO 6.09 2.62 1.12 0.48 -0.53 28.01 53.85 88.48 155.00 14.28 09:47
TECHM -5.70 -2.85 2.28 0.50 0.19 47.10 52.47 293.20 160.90 23.28 10:13
HINDALCO -5.66 -1.98 0.63 0.48 -0.95 54.64 59.78 127.17 229.38 6.42 11:38

2026-10-19

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
HDFCBANK -55.57 -2.31 1.12 0.48 -0.20 41.80 61.32 999.90 1,385.98 6.14 13:05
AXISBANK -33.38 -4.19 2.00 0.44 -0.18 44.09 62.98 697.15 530.29 25.05 12:57
ICICIBANK -24.75 -1.15 2.61 0.45 -0.71 48.10 62.46 1,682.10 857.72 22.98 13:44
INFY -23.33 -2.63 1.09 0.44 -0.86 46.90 54.74 707.30 753.76 7.67 11:09
BHARTIARTL -19.58 -1.56 1.20 0.45 -0.91 47.51 68.76 768.96 1,030.46 13.98 10:38
BAJFINANCE -14.65 -2.52 1.07 0.41 -1.53 55.85 62.84 450.44 476.12 8.24 11:54
RELIANCE -13.08 -0.76 1.17 0.49 -0.82 39.56 61.02 746.79 1,058.45 6.67 13:05
SBIN 9.66 1.15 1.79 0.53 0.10 49.42 55.32 725.10 489.32 21.61 10:31
LT 8.75 0.96 1.41 0.51 -0.18 37.94 61.15 323.61 400.43 13.72 13:45
KOTAKBANK -8.06 -1.14 0.62 0.53 0.20 58.94 69.06 391.03 736.33 4.39 14:20
HINDUNILVR -8.00 -2.14 0.85 0.47 -0.19 50.59 61.37 115.44 177.51 4.06 10:03
ETERNAL -7.99 -1.57 0.83 0.47 -0.98 61.11 58.99 352.94 413.40 12.36 10:11

2026-10-21

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
INFY 28.53 3.30 1.48 0.49 0.21 50.19 53.53 1,085.40 706.57 8.60 11:10
BAJFINANCE -18.55 -3.27 2.39 0.39 -0.79 55.68 61.84 962.90 466.56 31.12 11:07
HDFCBANK -16.65 -0.71 0.86 0.53 -0.51 61.06 60.21 1,146.88 1,344.27 5.11 12:14
AXISBANK -16.07 -2.10 0.70 0.47 -0.41 63.29 61.12 407.01 536.24 3.83 11:13
TCS 15.36 2.77 1.03 0.52 -0.00 45.62 48.56 655.16 607.30 12.84 13:43
ETERNAL -12.29 -2.45 1.36 0.46 -0.58 55.73 59.29 522.17 415.08 17.86 11:46
BHARTIARTL 10.84 0.88 1.19 0.56 -0.33 70.90 66.73 1,198.58 951.93 46.51 09:22
HCLTECH 10.46 3.21 0.92 0.49 0.20 54.80 48.05 329.44 270.60 12.61 12:32
RELIANCE 9.95 0.58 1.27 0.52 -0.86 46.35 59.15 992.91 1,023.89 9.36 13:07
SBIN -9.31 -1.10 1.12 0.48 -0.71 48.40 54.60 482.20 507.51 15.38 10:35
BSE -7.83 -2.63 0.47 0.43 -1.10 36.54 41.43 281.08 940.58 3.26 11:52
MARUTI -7.57 -2.40 0.88 0.40 -1.06 55.54 54.53 246.74 287.48 13.80 10:52

2026-10-22

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
HDFCBANK -42.54 -1.82 2.06 0.45 -0.22 59.33 59.65 2,486.13 1,306.82 25.09 13:12
RELIANCE -34.83 -2.03 1.03 0.50 -0.26 33.49 58.23 597.39 1,033.45 7.05 14:19
ICICIBANK 20.89 0.97 1.39 0.48 0.28 51.00 60.83 1,143.87 954.65 16.09 11:07
ETERNAL -12.37 -2.53 4.02 0.53 -2.27 47.31 59.23 1,259.45 421.95 49.80 09:22
INFY -11.21 -1.25 1.29 0.49 -0.34 54.75 53.70 1,077.79 746.12 13.84 10:07
BAJFINANCE 9.53 1.74 1.24 0.60 0.96 60.13 61.14 595.25 499.78 16.61 12:44
ITC -6.40 -1.18 0.75 0.48 -0.24 55.15 57.92 218.28 304.59 7.33 12:45
SBIN 6.09 0.73 0.59 0.57 0.45 43.51 54.37 242.73 522.16 5.62 14:12
NESTLEIND -5.21 -2.78 1.11 0.53 -0.42 49.54 57.86 117.52 128.55 34.91 11:19
BEL -5.06 -1.80 0.85 0.49 -0.15 41.76 58.05 124.75 220.26 13.38 10:43
TCS -4.99 -0.87 0.73 0.48 0.06 42.86 48.86 448.10 630.21 14.04 10:12
M&M -4.89 -0.86 0.67 0.49 0.45 49.60 61.21 248.21 466.34 7.77 12:03

2026-10-23

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
ETERNAL 20.28 4.25 2.27 0.58 1.73 42.14 59.09 722.69 466.08 16.89 12:06
SHRIRAMFIN -10.53 -3.98 1.52 0.52 -0.47 45.32 61.28 282.16 275.60 13.46 14:40
KOTAKBANK -10.27 -1.49 0.63 0.41 -0.35 68.28 68.36 470.06 753.33 5.25 14:12
SBIN -9.92 -1.18 1.05 0.48 -0.44 52.23 54.05 487.99 519.23 14.17 10:50
TATASTEEL -8.49 -2.70 1.32 0.42 0.18 44.71 48.49 226.05 213.35 24.98 13:45
ADANIPORTS -7.82 -2.70 0.56 0.52 -0.09 52.46 61.43 145.97 367.01 59.51 13:50
RELIANCE 7.82 0.46 1.03 0.54 0.42 51.22 57.05 901.46 1,025.28 8.26 15:04
BAJFINANCE -7.78 -1.40 0.71 0.51 -0.71 51.84 60.97 302.20 514.82 10.24 10:52
JSWSTEEL -7.30 -2.83 1.33 0.45 -1.27 49.19 53.27 134.16 119.79 55.58 10:53
ICICIBANK -6.65 -0.31 0.97 0.48 -0.31 64.31 60.90 1,033.74 990.43 9.68 12:51
ADANIENT -5.99 -2.86 1.25 0.46 0.03 40.92 39.41 182.05 178.93 34.26 11:39
TCS 5.21 0.92 1.24 0.46 -1.63 34.36 48.25 605.01 631.50 9.49 13:23

2026-10-13

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
TCS 32.55 6.79 2.94 0.57 1.08 44.06 46.43 1,089.80 370.80 20.89 11:41
INFY 32.21 4.13 2.31 0.53 1.27 54.16 54.54 1,236.50 590.40 16.83 11:41
ICICIBANK 31.25 1.51 0.60 0.49 0.71 55.44 62.86 432.30 805.05 6.65 11:19
HDFCBANK 30.01 1.29 0.57 0.61 0.32 59.46 60.33 798.35 1,398.70 3.77 09:49
HCLTECH 24.31 8.42 8.52 0.61 1.89 30.74 47.74 866.36 167.77 61.47 11:37
BHARTIARTL 18.27 1.56 1.00 0.57 0.80 63.93 68.86 678.16 798.84 11.67 11:16
SHRIRAMFIN 17.18 6.31 1.81 0.57 2.23 45.03 64.16 352.60 290.83 33.00 14:06
BAJFINANCE 15.09 2.66 1.07 0.59 0.77 61.62 63.05 453.78 436.47 14.37 12:07
SBIN 13.93 1.70 0.81 0.59 0.74 51.91 55.86 350.02 496.10 10.16 11:22
LT 11.94 1.31 1.41 0.51 0.85 61.37 60.83 504.01 381.48 19.26 14:03
RELIANCE 11.09 0.67 0.89 0.51 0.73 55.26 61.25 704.14 988.76 5.35 12:17
HINDUNILVR 10.80 3.01 1.72 0.55 0.73 59.86 60.59 240.46 153.52 29.02 13:26

2026-10-15

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
ICICIBANK 78.59 3.80 1.84 0.58 0.32 60.63 62.57 1,466.17 790.79 19.75 13:32
RELIANCE 57.43 3.44 1.88 0.55 -0.03 56.93 60.78 1,610.44 978.67 18.81 10:46
HDFCBANK 53.26 2.27 1.28 0.52 0.26 60.21 61.22 1,625.56 1,344.64 7.07 11:51
BHARTIARTL 39.03 3.31 1.95 0.56 -0.13 63.14 68.40 1,324.53 814.87 29.47 11:34
INFY 16.83 2.02 1.50 0.52 -0.59 49.23 54.61 877.11 660.80 10.17 11:45
NESTLEIND -16.47 -7.76 5.52 0.44 -2.72 25.99 61.06 266.25 127.05 208.88 12:26
KOTAKBANK 15.64 2.26 1.45 0.60 0.47 74.47 68.77 1,081.63 674.86 16.90 09:39
AXISBANK 14.46 1.85 1.45 0.60 -0.06 69.54 62.03 786.82 489.94 22.54 14:46
M&M 13.36 2.43 1.06 0.52 0.19 59.99 62.31 453.75 467.28 15.09 10:44
ETERNAL 10.96 2.22 0.86 0.51 0.79 60.31 57.66 355.37 409.27 13.23 11:56
TCS 10.17 1.96 2.05 0.54 -0.27 53.90 46.99 1,164.66 471.17 13.47 10:00
TECHM 9.89 4.75 4.13 0.56 1.24 53.23 53.16 751.05 179.99 58.16 10:43

2026-10-16

Nifty pts Chg % Vol vs 20d Up-vol share 15:14 vs VWAP % Deliv % Deliv % 20d Deliv ₹cr Deliv ₹cr 20d Max 1m vol ratio at
INFY 39.17 4.61 2.30 0.58 0.96 54.79 54.36 1,614.29 686.62 16.49 10:15
BHARTIARTL 33.51 2.75 4.24 0.45 0.21 80.63 67.97 3,891.39 861.88 362.03 13:54
TCS 25.94 4.89 2.59 0.56 1.14 57.35 47.56 1,702.33 516.41 49.87 11:09
TECHM 18.51 8.48 8.46 0.57 1.47 28.10 53.13 1,027.81 211.34 53.63 12:17
ICICIBANK 11.76 0.55 1.59 0.46 0.35 68.73 62.35 1,427.06 821.85 16.97 10:30
M&M 11.63 2.07 1.04 0.58 0.71 56.78 62.37 418.22 468.30 24.31 09:22
BAJFINANCE 9.97 1.75 1.03 0.56 0.68 65.07 62.49 495.37 465.56 13.30 10:33
HDFCBANK 6.60 0.28 0.99 0.52 -0.32 66.16 61.02 1,396.68 1,362.54 8.63 10:02
BSE -5.81 -1.90 0.95 0.48 -0.20 34.13 41.64 532.12 932.87 11.59 10:28
RELIANCE -5.40 -0.31 1.35 0.46 0.20 59.55 60.57 1,238.37 1,020.93 20.99 11:13
HCLTECH 4.72 1.47 1.59 0.56 -0.03 52.62 48.28 474.35 248.50 17.67 12:05
HINDALCO 4.49 1.58 0.82 0.51 0.00 62.44 59.31 192.28 235.44 8.95 13:48

4. Players: FII/DII cash, participant-wise OI, options

FII cash DII cash FII idx-fut net buy (cr) FII idx-opt net buy (cr) FII stk-fut net buy (cr) FII idx-fut long chg FII idx-fut short chg FII net chg FII long % Pro net chg Client net chg DII net chg
date
2026-10-12 -1,708.5 3,045.0 -366.8 6,456.5 299.3 -2,675.0 -803.0 -1,872.0 9.0 -13,765.0 13,406.0 2,231.0
2026-10-13 -1,305.1 2,439.2 959.8 1,044.3 4,559.7 3,148.0 -3,217.0 6,365.0 9.8 6,337.0 -13,072.0 370.0
2026-10-14 -1,857.4 2,670.4 -1,101.0 -8,627.1 -2,075.4 -1,134.0 6,068.0 -7,202.0 9.4 -3,790.0 15,501.0 -4,509.0
2026-10-15 -5,285.4 3,319.4 2,551.5 3,356.6 2,536.0 4,267.0 -12,603.0 16,870.0 10.8 2,757.0 -26,046.0 6,419.0
2026-10-16 1,165.9 -3,661.3 1,024.7 665.1 -687.7 1,417.0 -5,411.0 6,828.0 11.3 -8,182.0 602.0 752.0
2026-10-19 -1,148.6 3,201.2 -1,094.6 -27,608.5 -2,229.1 -3,305.0 3,626.0 -6,931.0 10.4 -3,607.0 10,877.0 -339.0
2026-10-21 1,022.3 1,614.3 255.9 -9,158.5 2,548.7 -4,063.0 -6,365.0 2,302.0 9.5 3,441.0 -6,860.0 1,117.0
2026-10-22 -3,458.7 2,891.3 -406.5 -6,781.1 1,265.1 2,105.0 4,777.0 -2,672.0 9.9 8,519.0 -5,646.0 -201.0
2026-10-23 887.6 3,235.4 -36.3 12,360.5 186.7 2,283.0 2,166.0 117.0 10.4 1,250.0 -2,977.0 1,610.0

Participant columns = change in contracts (NSE fao_participant_oi). FII derivative ₹cr = buy − sell from NSE fii_stats.

Index options: net long calls / puts change by participant (contracts)

call Client call DII call FII call Pro put Client put DII put FII put Pro
date
2026-10-12 +329,296 +648 -14,968 -314,975 -102,156 +5,812 +45,931 +50,413
2026-10-13 -276,579 +7,205 +72,791 +196,583 +146,322 +7,081 -21,085 -132,318
2026-10-14 +75,969 +3,535 -43,911 -35,594 -119,666 +1,585 -20,573 +138,654
2026-10-15 -129,508 -79,278 +125,025 +83,762 +234,460 +5,711 -97,738 -142,433
2026-10-16 -1,388 -10,430 -65,794 +77,612 -19,445 +8,220 +74,210 -62,984
2026-10-19 +135,953 -1,062 +21,014 -155,906 -235,937 +7,470 +52,260 +176,207
2026-10-21 +197,440 -165 -88,866 -108,408 -99,008 +15,910 +23,723 +59,373
2026-10-22 -107,615 +630 +51,178 +55,807 +81,549 -21,171 -95,060 +34,682
2026-10-23 -56,344 +1,077 +10,406 +44,862 -144,179 +917 +70,771 +72,492

Nifty options: IV, PCR, OI walls

Near expiry ATM ATM IV near % ATM IV 27-Oct % VIX PCR near PCR all Max CE OI strike lots Max PE OI strike lots Top CE add lots Top PE add lots CE OI chg (lots) PE OI chg (lots)
date
2026-10-12 2026-10-13 22,350.00 16.14 14.45 15.25 0.59 0.73 22,600.00 272,030.00 22,000.00 198,067.00 22,600.00 158,441.00 21,900.00 30,079.00 1,474,039.00 -848,892.00
2026-10-13 2026-10-19 22,700.00 12.95 12.99 14.12 1.39 1.27 23,000.00 97,042.00 22,500.00 115,089.00 23,000.00 38,148.00 22,500.00 92,151.00 406,306.00 1,005,252.00
2026-10-14 2026-10-19 22,600.00 13.06 13.32 14.63 0.86 0.91 23,000.00 173,840.00 22,000.00 115,380.00 24,000.00 79,934.00 20,100.00 43,298.00 973,145.00 195,575.00
2026-10-15 2026-10-19 23,000.00 11.81 12.13 14.03 1.66 1.37 24,000.00 153,607.00 22,500.00 199,031.00 23,300.00 38,452.00 22,900.00 113,988.00 -237,536.00 1,353,115.00
2026-10-16 2026-10-19 23,150.00 10.81 11.96 14.06 1.32 1.21 24,000.00 217,028.00 22,000.00 281,076.00 24,500.00 110,299.00 23,100.00 121,161.00 810,478.00 420,205.00
2026-10-19 2026-10-27 22,900.00 12.61 12.61 14.77 0.88 0.86 24,000.00 213,284.00 22,500.00 122,798.00 24,000.00 84,772.00 21,000.00 39,485.00 812,908.00 425,269.00
2026-10-21 2026-10-27 22,800.00 14.16 14.16 15.68 0.70 0.78 23,000.00 250,604.00 22,000.00 148,913.00 23,000.00 101,653.00 20,050.00 52,883.00 1,380,373.00 570,960.00
2026-10-22 2026-10-27 22,700.00 14.15 14.15 15.76 0.82 0.88 24,000.00 282,795.00 22,000.00 188,564.00 24,000.00 66,424.00 21,500.00 62,459.00 -40,002.00 405,607.00
2026-10-23 2026-10-27 22,600.00 14.54 14.54 16.86 0.74 0.81 24,000.00 300,789.00 21,500.00 208,331.00 22,500.00 84,279.00 22,500.00 43,105.00 510,655.00 77,322.00

5. Context: broad market, Jio IPO, news

Nifty % turnover_cr turnover_cr_20d deliv_val_cr deliv_val_cr_20d adv dec median_chg_pct n_down_gt3pct
date
2026-10-12 -0.7 95,655.6 113,084.1 40,942.3 49,335.5 1315 1346 0.0 133
2026-10-13 1.6 104,483.3 112,715.4 42,242.9 49,325.3 1620 1038 0.4 129
2026-10-14 -0.4 115,450.1 112,292.5 49,422.5 49,388.6 1519 1141 0.2 84
2026-10-15 1.7 117,575.3 112,378.1 51,120.6 49,344.8 899 1755 -0.7 396
2026-10-16 0.6 121,122.5 112,790.6 55,467.2 49,605.8 1581 1071 0.2 113
2026-10-19 -1.1 94,992.8 113,990.8 39,432.8 50,431.8 491 2182 -1.3 521
2026-10-21 -0.3 108,125.0 111,557.4 48,723.7 48,680.9 337 2338 -2.2 968
2026-10-22 -0.5 106,711.1 111,926.7 45,177.4 48,931.7 700 1969 -1.0 430
2026-10-23 -0.4 121,685.9 112,114.5 52,681.9 49,120.5 318 2368 -2.4 1056

Jio IPO check (facts): RELIANCE on 21/22/23-Oct: 10-21 +0.58%, vol 1.27x, delivery 46% (20d 59%); 10-22 -2.03%, vol 1.03x, delivery 33% (20d 58%); 10-23 +0.46%, vol 1.03x, delivery 51% (20d 57%). Nifty-50 delivery value 21–23 Oct ₹16,111, 16,268, 15,534 cr vs 20-day avg ₹16,385, 16,618, 16,867 cr (below normal). Whole-NSE EQ turnover on 23-Oct ₹1.22 lakh cr vs ₹1.12 lakh cr 20-day avg (+9%). Headline 23-Oct: 'Banking liquidity surplus shrinks to Rs 541 crore as cash crunch increases'. Jio allotment Mon 26-Oct, refunds Tue 27-Oct (per brief) — if IPO-bid funding caused the small/mid-cap selling, refunds could reverse some of it; that is a hypothesis, untested.

Key catalysts per session (local news archive, IST)

SessionCatalysts
2026-10-12Trump 'energy ceasefire' Russia–Ukraine → oil eases; RBI rupee/forex-derivative curbs (weekend); Houthi attacks on Saudi; 'IT, telecom decline as selloff resumes amid FII outflows'; India Sept CPI near RBI ceiling (17:51).
2026-10-13Asia AI/chip sell-off (Nikkei −2%) but India rebounds on IT (HCL Tech Q2 +8%, TCS +6%) + HDFC Bank; afternoon: FM Sitharaman at Bloomberg New Economy Forum says open to views on LTCG/STT (14:25+ headlines) — 'Sensex jumps 1,109 points' (close; Nifty +358.6). Sources: <a href='https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/fm-sitharamans-ltcg-tax-remarks-lift-sensex-by-900-points-can-markets-read-hope-of-review/articleshow/134913862.cms'>ET</a>, <a href='https://indianexpress.com/article/business/ltcg-tax-debate-nirmala-sitharaman-market-rally-10920113/'>Indian Express</a>.
2026-10-14Oil up again on US–Iran/Iraq strikes; 'Gulf oil production rebounds'; IT keeps rallying.
2026-10-15Jio Platforms IPO price band (₹30,213 cr, 21–23 Oct) → RIL +3%; US Sept CPI hot; WPI 11.4%; 'Short-covering rally may take Nifty to 23,000–23,150' (07:48); Nestle Q2 (−8%), TechM Q2 after close.
2026-10-16TechM bonus/results; Wipro, Jio Financial in focus; FII net buyers, DII net sellers.
2026-10-19Weekend bank Q2: HDFC Bank margins record low + deputy MD exit, Axis misses, ICICI beats; 'Crude tops $100'; 'Sensex crashes 900 pts… private banks lead'.
2026-10-21Jio IPO opens, fully subscribed in ~100 min, 3.16x day 1 (~₹70k cr bids); Bajaj Finance −3% post Q2 margin warning; 'Sensex crashes 1,350 pts from day's high'; VIX +8%.
2026-10-22US orders diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia; 'Oil jumps $2'; 7 tankers hit in Hormuz; Jio IPO 5.57x, ₹3.73 lakh cr demand; FIIs sell ₹3,459 cr; Sensex weekly expiry closing-auction swings ('CAS chaos'); RBI hike headline (20:55).
2026-10-23Brent $113–114 (5-month high), Houthi attacks on Saudi, Aramco HQ evacuation report (12:31); US Nasdaq −2.5% overnight (AI doubts); midcap/smallcap −4%; FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting (~12:16–13:28 IST; no market-moving remark found) — the 13:55 'Sensex jumps over 1,100 pts as Finance Minister's tax comments…' item (INDIA New England News) is a repost of the 13-Oct story, not 23-Oct news; Jio IPO final day; banking liquidity surplus ₹541 cr.

Full keyword-filtered headline list: news_by_session.csv. Headlines are reported as published; not independently verified.

6. Data gaps, methods and caveats

Facts vs interpretation

Facts = every number in the tables (prices, OI, participant contracts, FII/DII, delivery, volume ratios). Interpretation = the 'Reading' lines, the word 'short covering' for a whole day (it is the standard price/OI rule, which cannot separate who closed), the IPO-funding link to small-cap selling, and the block-trade guess for BHARTIARTL on 16-Oct. With 9 sessions none of the patterns is statistically tested; treat them as a description of this fortnight only.

7. Buying at the lows: what happens at the intraday bottoms (V-bounces)

Added 2026-10-25 after the question: "not only heavy buying days — heavy buying at the lows and recovering". Part 1 = every significant intraday low 12–23 Oct (day low + any swing low after a ≥150-pt fall that bounced ≥60; plus the 22-Oct gap-down low, fall 143), minute by minute from −15 to +45 min. Part 2 = is a pre-defined 'heavy buying at the low' signal tradable for an option buyer (Oct-2024 → Oct-2026)? Same data rules: Upstox historical 1m, spot/cash 15:15–15:29 treated as missing, nothing filled. Volume 'x' = this minute ÷ the same minute's average over the previous 20 sessions. Futures OI = Oct+Nov contracts from Upstox 1m (lagged/indicative; contracts = units ÷ 65).

Short version. Heavy futures volume (≥3x) showed up at 11 of the 14 lows — including most of the ones that failed. 5 of the 14 lows were broken again the same day (09:54 on 12-Oct, 09:29 on 19-Oct, 10:20 and 12:23 on 21-Oct, 10:18 on 23-Oct), and only 1 of 12 held through the next session. At the lows that failed, the volume was either shorts covering (19-Oct 09:29, OI −949) or fresh longs that got trapped (21-Oct ×2, 23-Oct 10:18). The one clean 'real buying' low was 14-Oct 13:15 (fut 9.4x, OI +750, IT-led). Bank Nifty bottomed 1–8 minutes before Nifty at 9 of 14 lows; 2–6 of the top-10 heavyweights turned before the index. At the low, option writers sold both sides (CE OI added more than PE OI near ATM at 10 of 14 lows) and ATM IV barely moved (±0.5 vol) — the bounce shows up as put premium −5 to −70 in 15 min, not an IV collapse. Part 2 verdict: FAIL. Across 24 pre-set variants, the volume-spike signal did not beat the same reversal bar on quiet volume (no Holm-adjusted p < 1.0), and the ATM CE buy lost money in every period (e.g. best train variant X150/3x/3bar: train -7.2 pts/trade, test -8.7 vs random -7.9).

Common pattern at the lows (12–23 Oct, n=14; descriptive)

The 14 lows

Date Low @ Type Low Peak @ Fall +15m +30m +60m Max +60m % of fall retraced (60m) 15:14 vs low Official close vs low Held rest of day Held next day Classification
2026-10-12 09:54 swing low 22,472.2 09:15 178.9 28.9 28.4 -30.0 61.5 34.4 -155.3 -108.8 False False News-linked relief bounce (oil fell on Trump "energy truce" headlines 10:02–10:13) — FAILED
2026-10-12 15:10 day low 22,304.5 09:15 346.6 — — — 22.1 6.4 12.4 58.9 True False No heavy buying (fut vol 0.7x); closing-auction lift only
2026-10-14 13:15 day low 22,559.0 09:48 199.0 16.2 56.3 58.5 108.6 54.6 66.2 63.8 True True REAL BUYING: fresh longs (OI +750), IT-led on 6–10x volume — HELD (also next day)
2026-10-16 09:36 day low 22,913.8 09:15 162.8 52.1 154.2 232.1 236.0 145.0 205.2 232.4 True False Morning flush reversal; intraday OI flat (day = short covering); results stocks (TECHM 28x) — held
2026-10-19 09:29 swing low 22,970.5 09:18 204.8 174.5 70.4 133.2 198.0 96.7 -97.0 -81.5 False False Short-covering spike (OI −949, 15 stocks ≥3x) — FAILED, real low came at 13:47
2026-10-19 13:47 day low 22,845.0 09:18 330.2 44.5 20.0 24.5 54.3 16.4 28.5 44.0 True False Heavy two-way volume (Bank Nifty fut 10.6x) but weak bounce — absorption, not buying
2026-10-21 10:20 swing low 22,922.5 09:40 198.5 57.7 54.3 -16.9 74.6 37.6 -183.2 -111.1 False False Fresh longs (OI +404, RIL 9x) — TRAPPED, low broken within the hour
2026-10-21 12:23 swing low 22,702.8 10:42 294.2 42.1 39.5 24.2 76.8 26.1 36.4 108.5 False False Fresh longs (OI +471, 10 stocks ≥3x) — TRAPPED, new low at 14:47
2026-10-21 14:47 day low 22,649.9 09:40 471.0 39.7 — — 94.4 20.1 89.3 161.4 True False Late short covering (OI −721) + closing-auction lift (+161 to official close)
2026-10-22 09:35 day low 22,554.8 09:15 142.7 121.5 50.6 205.7 212.5 148.9 112.4 132.8 True False Gap-down flush; volume normal for 09:35 (1.0x); put writing at 22,550; +122 in 15 min — held
2026-10-22 12:18 swing low 22,585.3 11:14 199.7 45.2 60.0 89.2 171.6 85.9 81.9 102.3 True False Mixed (OI flat); slow grind back +89 in 60 min — held
2026-10-22 13:27 swing low 22,601.7 12:55 155.2 9.0 46.1 20.8 55.2 35.6 65.5 86.0 True False Mixed (OI flat); HDFCBANK 10.8x; +46 in 30 min — held
2026-10-23 10:18 swing low 22,459.2 09:16 328.0 29.2 39.8 48.6 75.2 22.9 57.8 140.8 False — Fresh longs (OI +1,666 indicative), BHARTIARTL 15.9x — TRAPPED, low broken at 12:51
2026-10-23 12:51 day low 22,372.0 09:16 415.2 31.5 32.5 169.0 221.0 53.2 145.0 228.0 True — Fresh longs, small bounce (+32 in 30 min); the big move was the 13:38 burst (+137): no confirmed news catalyst; futures-led spike (8.7x fut vol). Nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found. The 13:55 tax headline was a repost of the 13-Oct story.

Story per low (facts first, reading at the end of each)

2026-10-12 09:54 — low 22,472.15 after −179 (swing low)

Nifty fell 179 from the 09:15 open-high. At 09:54 futures volume hit 4.4x normal with 6 stocks at ≥3x (BHARTIARTL 3.9x led). It bounced +29 in 15 min as oil eased on Trump's Russia 'energy truce' headlines (10:02–10:13), but futures OI barely moved (+186 contracts) — nobody committed. The bounce failed: −30 at +60 min, and by 15:14 Nifty was 155 below this 'low' (day low 15:10).

Numbers: fut vol 4.4x, BankNifty fut 3.3x, 6 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +186 contracts; recovered +29/+28/-30 at 15/30/60 min (max 62, 34% of the fall); ATM 22450 PE 83.7→72.7, CE 113.4→127.7 in 15 min. Leaders: BHARTIARTL +5.0, M&M +2.5, LT +2.4, SBIN +2.2, TCS +2.0.

Classification: News-linked relief bounce (oil fell on Trump "energy truce" headlines 10:02–10:13) — FAILED

2026-10-12 15:10 — low 22,304.45 after −347 (day low)

The real day low after a 347-pt fall, at 15:10. There was NO heavy buying: futures volume 0.7x normal. Spot ticked up only +12 by 15:14; the official close was +59 above the low purely via the closing auction. Next morning (13-Oct) opened marginally below this low, then rallied 359 on short covering.

Numbers: fut vol 0.7x, BankNifty fut 1.5x, 4 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after -178 contracts; recovered +nan/+nan/+nan at 15/30/60 min (max 22, 6% of the fall); ATM 22300 PE 65.0→59.5, CE 88.0→93.6 in 15 min. Leaders: HDFCBANK +4.6, KOTAKBANK +1.6, MAXHEALTH +1.5, RELIANCE +1.4, INFY +1.1.

Classification: No heavy buying (fut vol 0.7x); closing-auction lift only

2026-10-14 13:15 — low 22,558.95 after −199 (day low)

After a 199-pt slide from 09:48, the 13:15 low came with the heaviest futures volume of the sample (9.4x Nifty, 17.3x Bank Nifty) and fresh longs (OI +750). IT led — INFY 10.1x volume, TCS 6.6x — and heavyweights turned up 0–7 min before the index. +56 in 30 min, +109 max; the low held the rest of the day and the next day. The only low in the sample that matches 'heavy buying at the low' in the strong sense.

Numbers: fut vol 9.4x, BankNifty fut 17.3x, 9 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +750 contracts; recovered +16/+56/+59 at 15/30/60 min (max 109, 55% of the fall); ATM 22550 PE 142.4→143.6, CE 159.6→154.9 in 15 min. Leaders: INFY +3.8, ETERNAL +1.3, TCS +1.2, SUNPHARMA +0.9, RELIANCE +0.9.

Classification: REAL BUYING: fresh longs (OI +750), IT-led on 6–10x volume — HELD (also next day)

2026-10-16 09:36 — low 22,913.80 after −163 (day low)

A 163-pt flush in the first 21 minutes; the 09:36 low had 5.2x futures volume but flat OI (+39). BHARTIARTL, SBIN, INFY and TCS turned first (09:26–09:28); HDFCBANK did +15 pts of the bounce and TECHM (results) traded 27.7x. +154 in 30 min, +236 in 60 (more than the whole fall). On the day this was the third short-covering session (futures OI −2.7k).

Numbers: fut vol 5.2x, BankNifty fut 1.3x, 8 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +39 contracts; recovered +52/+154/+232 at 15/30/60 min (max 236, 145% of the fall); ATM 22900 PE 123.3→98.3, CE 107.6→130.1 in 15 min. Leaders: HDFCBANK +15.2, BHARTIARTL +6.7, INFY +3.1, TECHM +3.0, LT +2.5.

Classification: Morning flush reversal; intraday OI flat (day = short covering); results stocks (TECHM 28x) — held

2026-10-19 09:29 — low 22,970.50 after −205 (swing low)

Bank results day: a −205 dump in 11 minutes, then the low at 09:29 with 5.1x futures volume, 15 stocks at ≥3x (ICICIBANK 13.1x) and OI −949 = shorts booking profits. +174 in 15 min (ATM PE −70, CE +102), but it was covering, not new buying: the bounce faded and the day low came at 13:47, 125 pts lower.

Numbers: fut vol 5.1x, BankNifty fut 4.1x, 15 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after -949 contracts; recovered +174/+70/+133 at 15/30/60 min (max 198, 97% of the fall); ATM 22950 PE 177.8→108.0, CE 195.4→297.1 in 15 min. Leaders: RELIANCE +19.5, HDFCBANK +18.0, ICICIBANK +10.1, INFY +8.1, LT +7.8.

Classification: Short-covering spike (OI −949, 15 stocks ≥3x) — FAILED, real low came at 13:47

2026-10-19 13:47 — low 22,845.00 after −330 (day low)

The 13:47 day low after −330: Bank Nifty futures 10.6x, ICICIBANK 11.8x, 10 stocks ≥3x, yet OI flat (+32) and Nifty only +44/+20 at 15/30 min. Heavy volume here was two-way absorption — sellers met buyers, price went sideways. Low held the day (close +44 incl. auction) but broke the next session (21-Oct afternoon).

Numbers: fut vol 3.4x, BankNifty fut 10.6x, 10 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +32 contracts; recovered +44/+20/+25 at 15/30/60 min (max 54, 16% of the fall); ATM 22850 PE 161.8→144.6, CE 195.8→210.9 in 15 min. Leaders: HDFCBANK +6.3, KOTAKBANK +2.6, RELIANCE +2.1, ICICIBANK +2.0, TCS +2.0.

Classification: Heavy two-way volume (Bank Nifty fut 10.6x) but weak bounce — absorption, not buying

2026-10-21 10:20 — low 22,922.45 after −198 (swing low)

Jio-IPO day: the first leg down from 09:40 (−198) bottomed at 10:20 with 3.2x futures volume and fresh longs (OI +404, RELIANCE 9x). +58 in 15 min — then the longs got trapped: −17 by +60 min and three more legs down to 14:47.

Numbers: fut vol 3.2x, BankNifty fut 0.9x, 6 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +404 contracts; recovered +58/+54/-17 at 15/30/60 min (max 75, 38% of the fall); ATM 22900 PE 146.7→125.5, CE 199.4→223.9 in 15 min. Leaders: RELIANCE +14.1, ICICIBANK +12.4, SBIN +7.4, HDFCBANK +3.5, ETERNAL +2.8.

Classification: Fresh longs (OI +404, RIL 9x) — TRAPPED, low broken within the hour

2026-10-21 12:23 — low 22,702.85 after −294 (swing low)

Second leg (−294 from 10:42) bottomed at 12:23 with 3.7x futures volume, 10 stocks ≥3x and OI +471. Bounce +42 in 15 min, capped; new low at 14:47. Another case of 'heavy volume at the low' that was just a pause.

Numbers: fut vol 3.7x, BankNifty fut 4.9x, 10 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +471 contracts; recovered +42/+39/+24 at 15/30/60 min (max 77, 26% of the fall); ATM 22700 PE 173.1→153.2, CE 194.2→210.8 in 15 min. Leaders: RELIANCE +7.7, HDFCBANK +3.5, TCS +3.1, INFY +2.6, ETERNAL +2.1.

Classification: Fresh longs (OI +471, 10 stocks ≥3x) — TRAPPED, new low at 14:47

2026-10-21 14:47 — low 22,649.90 after −471 (day low)

The 14:47 day low after −471 on 3.3x futures volume and OI −721 (shorts covering into the close). +40 in 15 min, +89 by 15:14 and +161 to the official close (auction lift). Next day gapped down 124 below it.

Numbers: fut vol 3.3x, BankNifty fut 1.3x, 9 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after -721 contracts; recovered +40/+nan/+nan at 15/30/60 min (max 94, 20% of the fall); ATM 22650 PE 155.5→136.4, CE 179.8→199.8 in 15 min. Leaders: HDFCBANK +5.8, BHARTIARTL +2.1, M&M +1.7, AXISBANK +1.2, NTPC +1.2.

Classification: Late short covering (OI −721) + closing-auction lift (+161 to official close)

2026-10-22 09:35 — low 22,554.85 after −143 (day low)

Gap-down day (Saudi attacks / oil). The 09:35 low (22,555) came on NORMAL volume for that minute (1.0x — the open is always busy), but option data shows heavy put writing at 22,550 (PE OI 1.6M → 3.8M units by 09:35) and BHARTIARTL 4.8x. +122 in 15 min (ATM PE −49, CE +59), +212 max. Held the day; broken next morning.

Numbers: fut vol 1.0x, BankNifty fut 1.5x, 5 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +2,804 contracts; recovered +122/+51/+206 at 15/30/60 min (max 212, 149% of the fall); ATM 22550 PE 154.8→105.7, CE 191.2→250.2 in 15 min. Leaders: BHARTIARTL +18.7, RELIANCE +8.4, LT +6.3, ICICIBANK +5.9, M&M +4.5.

Classification: Gap-down flush; volume normal for 09:35 (1.0x); put writing at 22,550; +122 in 15 min — held

2026-10-22 12:18 — low 22,585.35 after −200 (swing low)

After a 200-pt slide from 11:14, the 12:18 low saw 4.6x futures volume, OI flat (+147). IT (TCS/INFY) turned first at 12:08–12:09, then ICICIBANK. A slow climb: +45/+60/+89 at 15/30/60 min; held the day.

Numbers: fut vol 4.6x, BankNifty fut 2.2x, 7 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +147 contracts; recovered +45/+60/+89 at 15/30/60 min (max 172, 86% of the fall); ATM 22600 PE 154.9→127.0, CE 164.2→183.7 in 15 min. Leaders: BHARTIARTL +5.3, ICICIBANK +4.2, RELIANCE +3.7, INFY +3.1, LT +2.6.

Classification: Mixed (OI flat); slow grind back +89 in 60 min — held

2026-10-22 13:27 — low 22,601.70 after −155 (swing low)

A retest low at 13:27 (−155 from 12:55) with HDFCBANK at 10.8x volume and AXISBANK 5.6x but flat OI; +9 in 15 min, +46 in 30. Held the day, broken next morning.

Numbers: fut vol 3.4x, BankNifty fut 3.4x, 6 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +104 contracts; recovered +9/+46/+21 at 15/30/60 min (max 55, 36% of the fall); ATM 22600 PE 131.3→131.9, CE 183.9→183.1 in 15 min. Leaders: HDFCBANK +3.1, AXISBANK +1.3, BAJFINANCE +1.0, MARUTI +0.5, INDIGO +0.4.

Classification: Mixed (OI flat); HDFCBANK 10.8x; +46 in 30 min — held

2026-10-23 10:18 — low 22,459.25 after −328 (swing low)

Friday: −328 from 09:16 to 10:18. Futures 2.9x, BHARTIARTL 15.9x, OI +1,666 (indicative). +29/+40/+49 at 15/30/60 min — then rolled over to the 12:51 low, 87 lower. Fresh longs trapped again.

Numbers: fut vol 2.9x, BankNifty fut 2.8x, 8 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +1,666 contracts; recovered +29/+40/+49 at 15/30/60 min (max 75, 23% of the fall); ATM 22450 PE 127.2→121.8, CE 201.4→202.8 in 15 min. Leaders: ICICIBANK +4.0, BHARTIARTL +3.6, LT +3.2, BAJFINANCE +2.0, SHRIRAMFIN +1.9.

Classification: Fresh longs (OI +1,666 indicative), BHARTIARTL 15.9x — TRAPPED, low broken at 12:51

2026-10-23 12:51 — low 22,372.00 after −415 (day low)

The 12:51 day low (22,372) after −415: futures 3.1x, ETERNAL 16.9x volume, OI rising. Initial bounce only +32 in 30 min. The real recovery came from the 13:38–13:42 burst (+137 futures pts, 8.7x volume, 16 stocks ≥3x) — +169 at +60 min, +228 to the official close. Catalyst: no confirmed news catalyst; futures-led spike (8.7x fut vol). Nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found. The 13:55 tax headline was a repost of the 13-Oct story. (corrected 25-Oct; earlier version wrongly tied this burst to the FM's tax comments.)

Numbers: fut vol 3.1x, BankNifty fut 3.6x, 6 stocks ≥3x; OI 15m after +1,777 contracts; recovered +32/+32/+169 at 15/30/60 min (max 221, 53% of the fall); ATM 22350 PE 105.5→96.2, CE 199.9→211.4 in 15 min. Leaders: ETERNAL +3.4, BHARTIARTL +3.2, HDFCBANK +2.5, LT +2.0, TATASTEEL +1.9.

Classification: Fresh longs, small bounce (+32 in 30 min); the big move was the 13:38 burst (+137): no confirmed news catalyst; futures-led spike (8.7x fut vol). Nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found. The 13:55 tax headline was a repost of the 13-Oct story.

Futures, OI, basis and Bank Nifty around each low

Date Low @ Nifty fut vol x (max −2..+3m) BankNifty fut vol x # stocks ≥3x vol Fut OI chg 15m before (contracts) Fut OI chg 15m after Fut pts +15m Basis at low Basis chg −15→0 Basis chg 0→+15 BankNifty low vs Nifty low (min) BankNifty +15m
2026-10-12 09:54 4.4 3.3 6 208.0 186.0 24.1 51.4 -10.7 -1.0 -2 56.3
2026-10-12 15:10 0.7 1.5 4 557.0 -178.0 5.0 73.5 7.1 — -4 —
2026-10-14 13:15 9.4 17.3 9 769.0 750.0 -5.1 21.9 -4.7 3.0 -1 -37.6
2026-10-16 09:36 5.2 1.3 8 716.0 39.0 48.7 3.6 -2.8 1.2 0 46.1
2026-10-19 09:29 5.1 4.1 15 — -949.0 151.7 0.5 — -11.4 1 250.7
2026-10-19 13:47 3.4 10.6 10 196.0 32.0 22.3 29.6 7.2 -7.8 -2 115.8
2026-10-21 10:20 3.2 0.9 6 -719.0 404.0 41.0 27.8 9.2 -8.0 -8 121.3
2026-10-21 12:23 3.7 4.9 10 442.0 471.0 30.8 16.7 -8.7 -7.8 -1 82.1
2026-10-21 14:47 3.3 1.3 9 503.0 -721.0 48.0 11.5 -4.8 16.9 -1 80.1
2026-10-22 09:35 1.0 1.5 5 4,000.0 2,804.0 103.1 11.8 7.0 1.9 1 157.3
2026-10-22 12:18 4.6 2.2 7 -2,162.0 147.0 52.6 23.0 -1.3 9.0 0 102.3
2026-10-22 13:27 3.4 3.4 6 288.0 104.0 2.3 30.6 -6.3 10.0 -1 -2.9
2026-10-23 10:18 2.9 2.8 8 1,844.0 1,666.0 11.0 51.3 -12.8 -4.8 -3 52.5
2026-10-23 12:51 3.1 3.6 6 1,854.0 1,777.0 35.0 67.8 4.0 5.2 0 10.3

Options at the low (near expiry; Black-76 IV on the synthetic forward)

Date Low @ ATM Expiry CE @low CE +15 CE +30 PE @low PE +15 PE +30 CE IV @low CE IV +15 PE IV −15 PE IV @low PE IV +15 PE OI chg ATM..−200 (−15→+30, contracts) CE OI chg ATM..+200 PCR ±200 @low PCR ±200 +30m
2026-10-12 09:54 22450 2026-10-13 113.4 127.7 123.7 83.7 72.7 72.0 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8 140,521.0 273,469.0 1.1 1.1
2026-10-12 15:10 22300 2026-10-13 88.0 93.6 — 65.0 59.5 — 16.2 16.1 16.5 16.2 16.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 —
2026-10-14 13:15 22550 2026-10-19 159.6 154.9 177.8 142.4 143.6 120.5 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.0 -9,142.0 123,322.0 1.1 1.0
2026-10-16 09:36 22900 2026-10-19 107.6 130.1 198.7 123.3 98.3 58.9 13.4 13.2 14.4 13.4 13.2 270,038.0 197,076.0 1.2 1.4
2026-10-19 09:29 22950 2026-10-27 195.4 297.1 237.6 177.8 108.0 147.0 13.5 13.6 — 13.5 13.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.2
2026-10-19 13:47 22850 2026-10-27 195.8 210.9 196.6 161.8 144.6 159.3 13.1 13.0 13.3 13.1 13.0 3,711.0 17,014.0 1.2 1.1
2026-10-21 10:20 22900 2026-10-27 199.4 223.9 221.3 146.7 125.5 126.2 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 36,060.0 72,458.0 1.2 1.2
2026-10-21 12:23 22700 2026-10-27 194.2 210.8 206.7 173.1 153.2 156.2 15.6 15.4 15.0 15.6 15.4 23,282.0 86,897.0 1.5 1.5
2026-10-21 14:47 22650 2026-10-27 179.8 199.8 208.1 155.5 136.4 127.0 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 -22,883.0 -20,719.0 1.4 1.4
2026-10-22 09:35 22550 2026-10-27 191.2 250.2 207.1 154.8 105.7 134.3 16.0 15.6 16.0 16.0 15.6 71,791.0 64,903.0 1.8 1.9
2026-10-22 12:18 22600 2026-10-27 164.2 183.7 193.3 154.9 127.0 119.2 14.9 14.4 14.7 14.9 14.4 10,587.0 32,427.0 1.5 1.5
2026-10-22 13:27 22600 2026-10-27 183.9 183.1 203.4 131.3 131.9 110.2 14.7 14.7 14.2 14.7 14.7 -21,820.0 47,472.0 1.6 1.5
2026-10-23 10:18 22450 2026-10-27 201.4 202.8 215.0 127.2 121.8 114.0 16.8 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.5 115,057.0 225,187.0 2.1 1.9
2026-10-23 12:51 22350 2026-10-27 199.9 211.4 211.2 105.5 96.2 95.3 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 24,989.0 31,502.0 2.0 1.9

Option OI from Upstox 1m (units ÷ 65); first-bar OI is the previous day's value, so changes that span 09:15 include overnight updates. Option minutes with no trade are left blank.

Which stocks led the bounce and turned first

Date Low @ Top 5 bounce contributors (Nifty pts, low→+15m) Their max 1m volume x (−2..+5m) Top-10 heavyweights: own low time # heavyweights bottoming before index Leaders day delivery % minus 20d
2026-10-12 09:54 BHARTIARTL +5.0, M&M +2.5, LT +2.4, SBIN +2.2, TCS +2.0 BHARTIARTL 3.9x, M&M 1.0x, LT 1.3x, SBIN 1.9x, TCS 1.4x AXISBANK 09:44, KOTAKBANK 09:49, BHARTIARTL 09:51, TCS 09:52, HDFCBANK 09:54, INFY 09:54, LT 09:54, SBIN 09:54, ICICIBANK 10:03, RELIANCE 10:04 4 -5.3
2026-10-12 15:10 HDFCBANK +4.6, KOTAKBANK +1.6, MAXHEALTH +1.5, RELIANCE +1.4, INFY +1.1 HDFCBANK 0.8x, KOTAKBANK 3.3x, MAXHEALTH 2.7x, RELIANCE 1.5x, INFY 0.8x HDFCBANK 15:00, INFY 15:00, TCS 15:08, RELIANCE 15:09, ICICIBANK 15:10, BHARTIARTL 15:12, KOTAKBANK 15:12, SBIN 15:12, AXISBANK 15:13, LT 15:14 4 -0.1
2026-10-14 13:15 INFY +3.8, ETERNAL +1.3, TCS +1.2, SUNPHARMA +0.9, RELIANCE +0.9 INFY 10.1x, ETERNAL 2.2x, TCS 6.6x, SUNPHARMA 1.7x, RELIANCE 1.9x TCS 13:08, AXISBANK 13:11, RELIANCE 13:11, INFY 13:12, KOTAKBANK 13:13, ICICIBANK 13:15, LT 13:15, SBIN 13:15, HDFCBANK 13:22, BHARTIARTL 13:23 5 3.6
2026-10-16 09:36 HDFCBANK +15.2, BHARTIARTL +6.7, INFY +3.1, TECHM +3.0, LT +2.5 HDFCBANK 1.1x, BHARTIARTL 3.8x, INFY 5.6x, TECHM 27.7x, LT 6.5x BHARTIARTL 09:26, SBIN 09:27, INFY 09:28, TCS 09:28, LT 09:31, HDFCBANK 09:36, ICICIBANK 09:36, KOTAKBANK 09:40, RELIANCE 09:40, AXISBANK 09:46 5 -1.2
2026-10-19 09:29 RELIANCE +19.5, HDFCBANK +18.0, ICICIBANK +10.1, INFY +8.1, LT +7.8 RELIANCE 1.6x, HDFCBANK 2.0x, ICICIBANK 13.1x, INFY 1.7x, LT 3.1x SBIN 09:20, INFY 09:26, BHARTIARTL 09:27, KOTAKBANK 09:29, LT 09:29, RELIANCE 09:29, AXISBANK 09:30, HDFCBANK 09:30, ICICIBANK 09:30, TCS 09:30 3 -17.3
2026-10-19 13:47 HDFCBANK +6.3, KOTAKBANK +2.6, RELIANCE +2.1, ICICIBANK +2.0, TCS +2.0 HDFCBANK 5.5x, KOTAKBANK 4.1x, RELIANCE 6.4x, ICICIBANK 11.8x, TCS 4.4x ICICIBANK 13:44, TCS 13:44, AXISBANK 13:45, INFY 13:45, KOTAKBANK 13:45, LT 13:46, HDFCBANK 13:47, RELIANCE 13:47, SBIN 13:47, BHARTIARTL 13:49 6 -11.4
2026-10-21 10:20 RELIANCE +14.1, ICICIBANK +12.4, SBIN +7.4, HDFCBANK +3.5, ETERNAL +2.8 RELIANCE 9.0x, ICICIBANK 1.4x, SBIN 2.2x, HDFCBANK 0.9x, ETERNAL 3.9x HDFCBANK 10:12, ICICIBANK 10:12, KOTAKBANK 10:12, SBIN 10:12, TCS 10:13, BHARTIARTL 10:20, LT 10:20, RELIANCE 10:20, INFY 10:26, AXISBANK 10:29 5 -4.2
2026-10-21 12:23 RELIANCE +7.7, HDFCBANK +3.5, TCS +3.1, INFY +2.6, ETERNAL +2.1 RELIANCE 6.1x, HDFCBANK 3.6x, TCS 3.7x, INFY 4.1x, ETERNAL 2.8x BHARTIARTL 12:19, KOTAKBANK 12:21, ICICIBANK 12:22, AXISBANK 12:23, HDFCBANK 12:23, INFY 12:23, LT 12:23, RELIANCE 12:23, SBIN 12:23, TCS 12:23 3 -4.4
2026-10-21 14:47 HDFCBANK +5.8, BHARTIARTL +2.1, M&M +1.7, AXISBANK +1.2, NTPC +1.2 HDFCBANK 0.9x, BHARTIARTL 5.2x, M&M 3.1x, AXISBANK 1.5x, NTPC 8.3x BHARTIARTL 14:38, KOTAKBANK 14:46, LT 14:46, AXISBANK 14:47, HDFCBANK 14:47, RELIANCE 14:47, SBIN 14:47, TCS 14:50, ICICIBANK 14:57, INFY 14:57 3 1.5
2026-10-22 09:35 BHARTIARTL +18.7, RELIANCE +8.4, LT +6.3, ICICIBANK +5.9, M&M +4.5 BHARTIARTL 4.8x, RELIANCE 2.2x, LT 2.7x, ICICIBANK 3.9x, M&M 1.0x INFY 09:25, LT 09:25, TCS 09:25, BHARTIARTL 09:35, KOTAKBANK 09:35, RELIANCE 09:35, SBIN 09:35, ICICIBANK 09:38, AXISBANK 09:40, HDFCBANK 09:41 3 -13.9
2026-10-22 12:18 BHARTIARTL +5.3, ICICIBANK +4.2, RELIANCE +3.7, INFY +3.1, LT +2.6 BHARTIARTL 1.9x, ICICIBANK 1.4x, RELIANCE 1.2x, INFY 2.0x, LT 2.7x TCS 12:08, INFY 12:09, ICICIBANK 12:10, KOTAKBANK 12:11, BHARTIARTL 12:14, LT 12:19, RELIANCE 12:19, HDFCBANK 12:23, SBIN 12:24, AXISBANK 12:25 5 -11.3
2026-10-22 13:27 HDFCBANK +3.1, AXISBANK +1.3, BAJFINANCE +1.0, MARUTI +0.5, INDIGO +0.4 HDFCBANK 10.8x, AXISBANK 5.6x, BAJFINANCE 4.4x, MARUTI 4.0x, INDIGO 0.7x AXISBANK 13:25, KOTAKBANK 13:26, LT 13:27, SBIN 13:27, HDFCBANK 13:28, BHARTIARTL 13:37, ICICIBANK 13:37, INFY 13:37, RELIANCE 13:37, TCS 13:37 2 -0.1
2026-10-23 10:18 ICICIBANK +4.0, BHARTIARTL +3.6, LT +3.2, BAJFINANCE +2.0, SHRIRAMFIN +1.9 ICICIBANK 4.4x, BHARTIARTL 15.9x, LT 4.6x, BAJFINANCE 1.1x, SHRIRAMFIN 2.1x HDFCBANK 10:10, KOTAKBANK 10:13, AXISBANK 10:17, LT 10:17, BHARTIARTL 10:18, ICICIBANK 10:18, SBIN 10:18, RELIANCE 10:21, INFY 10:26, TCS 10:26 4 -5.4
2026-10-23 12:51 ETERNAL +3.4, BHARTIARTL +3.2, HDFCBANK +2.5, LT +2.0, TATASTEEL +1.9 ETERNAL 16.9x, BHARTIARTL 3.2x, HDFCBANK 2.1x, LT 1.8x, TATASTEEL 1.4x LT 12:46, BHARTIARTL 12:48, INFY 12:49, TCS 12:49, HDFCBANK 12:51, RELIANCE 12:51, SBIN 12:51, AXISBANK 12:52, KOTAKBANK 12:55, ICICIBANK 12:56 4 -6.2

Headlines within ±10 minutes

Date Low @ Market headlines within ±10 min (local archive; [impact tag])
2026-10-12 09:54 09:44 [+0] Is the US stock market open today on Columbus Day 2026? Check trading hours | 09:45 [-1] Sensex falls 350 pts from day's high, Nifty below 22,550: Profit booking among key factors behind market... | 09:51 [+0] U.S.-Iran deal expected in Q1 as oil prices remain sticky: BMI | 09:54 [+0] Indian markets pare early gains; inflation data roll out today: Oil prices slide; financial stocks drag ind... | 09:54 [+1] US stocks in focus as bank earnings, inflation data set to test market rally | 09:56 [+1] Sensex, Nifty Volatile In Early Trade; Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire, Iran-Saudi Talks Lift Sentiments | 09:57 [+1] Rupee jumps 91 paise to 95.80 against US dollar in early trade | 10:01
2026-10-12 15:10 15:00 [+0] Fed officials are warning of more pain. Many Americans are already feeling it | 15:01 [+1] FX hold off of recent lows, stocks up as oil prices ease | 15:03 [+1] Global Market: European shares rise as easing oil prices lift sentiment; earnings in focus | 15:05 [+1] Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow Jones Futures Gain Even as Iran Flags 'Inadequate' US Response to Peace | 15:06 [+0] India’s GDP can surprise towards 8%, but corporate earnings remain muted on competition, says Bajaj... | 15:07 [+1] Indian rupee surges as RBI deploys forex shield; euro, dollar holds ahead of CPI | 15:09 [+0] Swiss Franc dips as geopolitical tensions and Oil prices boost the US Dollar | 15:10 [+1] Indian
2026-10-14 13:15 13:05 [-1] West Asia war keeps $110 in sight for oil despite supply recovery: Analyst | 13:09 [+0] Fusion CX to repay over 90% debt after IPO, targets more acquisitions and AI expansion | 13:09 [+0] RBI's big rupee defence: What Governor Sanjay Malhotra told Moneycontrol | 13:14 [-1] Saudi Aramco Hit? Missile Strike Reports Rock Oil Giant | WATCH | 13:15 [+0] Global Market | European companies better positioned to withstand energy price shock than in 2022: Analysts | 13:16 [+0] Global Market: Lagarde says France must tackle debt woes through fiscal consolidation | 13:19 [+0] PMS Tracker: HEM Securities’ SME stars, others rally up to 7.5% in September despite Nifty’s 6% crash | 13:22 [+0] The
2026-10-16 09:36 09:27 [+0] Fed's Warsh sees US economic tailwinds, mum on rate-path view | 09:27 [+0] Fed's Warsh gives no hint on October policy decision | 09:29 [+0] Warsh Avoids Signal on October Rate Move | 09:29 [+1] Market Update: Sensex Surges Over 700 Points From Day’s Low, Nifty Reclaims 23,100; IT Stocks Rally | 09:31 [+1] NSE, BSE, Groww, other capital market stocks rise up to 3% as Sebi revises CAS framework. What traders must kn | 09:31 [-1] SENSEX falls 200 points, NIFTY50 below 23,000; IT stocks outperform, financials fall | 09:38 [+0] Tonbo Imaging India IPO Day 2: GMP at 71%, issue subscribed 4x; Check key details | 09:38 [+0] Fed's Warsh says AI path will be 'very bumpy' but ultimately 've
2026-10-19 09:29 09:19 [+1] Stock Market Today: Sensex gains 120 points, Nifty near 23,150; PSU banks shine | 09:23 [+1] Sensex and Nifty Inch Higher Amid Mixed Sectoral Trends; Large Caps Lead Gains | 09:27 [-1] Indian Stocks Open Lower as Crude Oil Retreats and Rupee Weakens | 09:29 [+1] Sensex, Nifty open flat as high crude oil prices offset banking stocks gains | 09:29 [-1] Markets Today: Sensex Falls Over 100 Points, Nifty Opens Near 23,150; India VIX Rises 2.6% | 09:29 [+0] SENSEX, NIFTY50 subdued; IT shares fall on profit booking, PSU banks rise | 09:34 [-1] That Sinking Feeling: AI worries send stock markets crashing around the globe | 09:35 [-2] Stock Market Crash: Sensex Plunges 700 Points, Nifty B
2026-10-19 13:47 13:37 [-2] Sensex crashes 900 points: Why is stock market down today? | 13:40 [+0] Jio’s mega IPO breaks all records with Rs 2.5 lakh crore anchor demand: BlackRock, GIC, LIC participate | 13:40 [-1] US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Drop On Sticky Trade Inflation Concerns | 13:42 [+0] Russian crude oil tanker resumes voyage, police say | 13:43 [+1] Farcical Capital Gains Tax system restricts investment in homes | 13:44 [+0] Brent Christensen of Greensboro Chamber of Commerce named 2026 Power Player | 13:45 [+0] Long-term rates this Monday: the Fed goes quiet and the US 10-year slips toward its lowest in a month | 13:45 [+0] 3 Words From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Suggest the Worst Is Yet to
2026-10-21 10:20 10:10 [+1] Sensex soars 800 points, Nifty up nearly 225 points in early trade amid positive global cues | 10:10 [+1] Why is stock market rising today? Sensex surges 829 points, Nifty rises 1% - Key factors driving Dalal Street  | 10:11 [+0] Indian bonds sell off on oil shock ahead of RBI policy minutes | 10:12 [-2] Oil prices gain after 18 Hormuz attacks in two weeks | 10:13 [+1] Sensex, Nifty Jump at Open as Asia Gains; Jio IPO in Focus | 10:15 [+1] Sensex Today Rallies 794 Points | Nifty Above 23,100 | Infosys & TCS Top Gainers | 10:16 [+1] Sensex jumps 571 points amid Jio IPO | 10:16 [+1] Milan Vaishnav on Nifty 50 rebound and recommends holding Laurus Labs | 10:17 [+2] Sensex Rebounds on
2026-10-21 12:23 12:17 [-2] Sensex Crashes Over 1,350 Points From Day's High, Nifty Below 22,700: Why Is Share Market Falling Today? Kn | 12:18 [-1] Global Market: Eurozone banking crisis fears return as government borrowing costs surge | 12:20 [+1] Rupee strengthens 39 paise to 94.54 against dollar: What to watch in the currency market | 12:21 [-2] Oil prices rise amid threat of escalation in the Middle East and shrinking US inventories | 12:22 [+0] Prime Minister shares an article by Union Minister Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan highlighting the role of technol | 12:22 [-1] Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Shipping Risks Persist | 12:22 [+0] Prime Minister extends greetings on the occasion of Mahalaya | 12:22 [+0] Ne
2026-10-21 14:47 14:43 [-1] Brent oil prices near 5-month high on Middle East supply fears, US inventory drawdowns | 14:48 [-2] Rs 8 lakh crore selloff! Sensex plunges 1,400 points from day’s peak as bulls lose steam; 5 triggers | 14:48 [-2] Rs 8 lakh crore selloff! Sensex plunges 1,400 points from day’s peak as bulls lose steam; 3 triggers | 14:49 [-2] Gulf oil exports exceed pre-war levels despite the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz | 14:50 [+0] Central Bank Super Week: Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoC, RBNZ Guide | 14:50 [+0] Business News | Best Demat Account for Data-Driven Investors: Using FII DII Data in Your Strategy
2026-10-22 09:35 09:26 [-1] Indian Stocks Open Lower As Crude Oil Surges and Rupee Weakens | 09:28 [-1] SENSEX plunges over 700 points, NIFTY50 below 22,600; broader markets underperform | 09:28 [-1] Market Today: Sensex Falls Over 600 Points, Nifty Opens Below 22,600 As Auto, Metal Stocks Drag | 09:28 [+0] Trump says he deserved Pulitzer Prize for writing, renews Nobel Peace Prize grievance | 09:29 [+0] GST Council Proposes Removing ITC Blocks to Reduce Business Tax Costs | 09:29 [+0] Jio IPO: Subscribe on day 2 or wait until the last day? What investors need to know | 09:30 [+0] India mounts costly defence of rupee | 09:31 [-1] Sensex falls 600 pts, Nifty below 22,600: Higher crude prices among key factors
2026-10-22 12:18 12:08 [+0] Canadian Dollar gathers strength on elevated oil prices | 12:12 [+0] Jio Platforms IPO: Retail quota full, subscribed 3.47 times on day two | 12:15 [-2] Oil Rises, Asian Stocks Fall as Middle East Tensions Mount | 12:16 [+0] India's West Asia oil imports hit pre-war levels; Russian crude falls | 12:21 [-1] France's Maurel & Prom 9M sales rise 17% on higher oil prices | 12:23 [-1] Oil climbs more than $1 on fresh Houthi attacks | 12:27 [+0] A new challenger to Nifty and Sensex? NCDEX launches two equity indices
2026-10-22 13:27 13:17 [-1] Persian Gulf crude oil exports have rebounded to over 90% of pre-war levels, so why do oil prices remain persi | 13:18 [-1] Yen rallies as dollar wobbles toward Fed meeting | 13:22 [-2] Sensex Falls 291 Points, Nifty 50 Drops 0.44% as West Asia Tensions Weigh on Markets | 13:23 [+0] NCDEX launches NDEX and FINNDEX indices to foray into equity and derivatives markets | 13:23 [+0] Government bonds: New tax exemption rules kick in, what investors need to know | 13:27 [-1] Oil Prices Rise More Than 2% as Attacks on Saudi Arabia, U.S.-Iran Risks Persist | 13:27 [+0] Jio Platforms leverage play pops up at SBI as brokers lure IPO bets | 13:28 [+0] Reliance Jio IPO GMP today: Day 2 subscr
2026-10-23 10:18 10:09 [+0] ETMarkets Smart Talk: Smallcap investors should consider a five-year SIP horizon amid volatility: Sorbh Gupta | 10:10 [+0] Daily Voice: Divam Sharma sees signs of capitulation in parts of midcap space; market sentiment near peak... | 10:12 [-1] Sensex Falls for Fourth Straight Session | 10:14 [+0] BPCL, HPCL to IOCL: OMC stocks dip up to 2% as Brent crude price touches $114 per barrel | What should investo | 10:14 [-1] Ola Electric shares now a near-consensus 'sell' after Goldman Sachs downgrades; stock falls | 10:19 [-1] IT stocks reverse course, buck global AI rout; Brent at $114 caps market recovery | 10:23 [-1] WTI Crude Oil Holds Near $99 Amid Geopolitical Tensions | 10:24 [-
2026-10-23 12:51 12:44 [+0] 3 Energy Stocks Worth Watching As Oil Prices Rebound Above $113 Brent | 12:45 [+0] Beyond awareness: How Project Jagrook aims to make Indian investors self-reliant | 12:46 [-1] Why Stock Market Is Falling Today? Sensex Drops Over 500 Points, Nifty 50 Slips Below 22,500; Key Reasons | 12:47 [+0] Fed may hold in October, but analysts see a tougher call ahead | 12:51 [-1] Market may not recover until oil prices ease, West Asia tensions subside: Nepean’s Gautam Trivedi | 12:51 [-1] Yen Pulls Back as Dollar Firms Ahead of Fed & BoJ Rates | 12:52 [+0] FIIs rotate into IT while healthcare faces sharp selling pressure | 12:53 [-2] Stock Market Crash News Today Live Updates: Nifty Slumps N

Most headlines near a low describe the move ('Sensex falls 600 pts…') rather than cause it. Identified catalysts: 12-Oct 10:02–10:13 oil falls on Trump energy-truce comments; 23-Oct 13:38 burst: no confirmed news catalyst; futures-led spike (8.7x fut vol). Nearest event: FM chaired the 30th FSDC meeting ~12:16–13:28 IST, no market-moving remark found. The 13:55 tax headline was a repost of the 13-Oct story. Headlines whose quoted index move does not match the actual Nifty move, and later copies of reposted headlines, are now ignored (ignored list). Full list in results.

8. Is 'heavy buying at the low' tradable for an option buyer? (Part 2)

Data used. Spot Nifty 1m 2022-01-03 → 2026-10-23 (research/common/data/nifty_1m_clean.parquet + Upstox historical for 21–23 Oct). Nifty futures 1m: Upstox expired-instruments historical API for every monthly contract Oct-2024 → Sep-2026, plus live Oct/Nov-2026 contracts (volume = sum of all listed contracts, so rollover is neutral). No 1m futures volume exists before Sep-2024 in any source we have (Upstox expired data starts with the Oct-2024 contract; S3 has none), so the volume signal can only be tested Oct-2024 → Oct-2026. The Dec-2024 contract is missing from Upstox (19 sessions 29-Nov → 26-Dec-2024 excluded, and the 20-day baseline restarts after). Options: ATM CE 1m from nifty-options-s3/…/1m/by_expiry (expiries 3-Oct-2024 → 29-Sep-2026) and Upstox for Oct-2026.

Split. The requested 2022–24 train / 2025–26 test is only possible for the price-only version. For the volume version: train = 21-Oct-2024 → 30-Jun-2025, test = 1-Jul-2025 → 23-Oct-2026, plus year by year.

Signal (fixed in advance; only data known at the bar close). Time 09:20–14:14. Day's running high − running low ≥ X (150/200/250) with the low set after the high and within the last 3 minutes. Trigger bar: closes in the top 40% of its range, above the previous close, and ≤25 pts above the low. Volume: Nifty futures volume ≥ V (3x/5x) of its 20-day same-minute average, on the trigger bar ('1bar') or averaged over the last 3 bars ('3bar'). Optional: futures OI fell over the last 3 min ('oi_down'). First trigger per day per variant → 3×2×2×2 = 24 variants. Control = the same reversal bar with futures volume <1.5x (bar and 3-bar). Base = first touch of the low after the same fall. Outcomes on spot from the trigger close, capped at 15:14.

Option trade. Buy the ATM CE (nearest expiry, 0DTE allowed; skip-0DTE as sensitivity) at the next minute's open + 3 pts; SL 20 pts; scale-out 40% at +20, 30% at +40 (stop to breakeven after +20, trail the rest 20 pts below the high after +40); time exit after 60 min. Exits −3 pts each; charges = ₹20/order, STT 0.1% sell, exchange 0.035%, SEBI, stamp, GST (≈1.1 pts/unit). If SL and target fall in the same minute, SL counts first. Random benchmark = 4,000 random minutes (09:20–14:14) with the same rules, bootstrap p-value; Holm correction across the 24 variants.

Verdict: FAIL. (1) Recovery odds after a volume-spike reversal are about the same as after the same bar on quiet volume (e.g. X150/3x/3bar: +40 within 30 min 31% vs control 25%); smallest Holm-adjusted p = 1.00. (2) The low usually gets broken anyway: P(no new low in 60 min) ~0–25% for signals vs ~17–20% for controls. (3) ATM CE buying lost money in every variant with ≥10 trades, in train and in test, and lost more than random entries (-7.64 pts/trade). The few positive cells (X200–250 with OI filter, test) have 3–9 trades and do not survive correction. Best train variant (X150/3x/3bar/any, 37 trades, -7.2) → test 86 trades -8.7 pts vs random -7.9. Sample: 2 years; a regime change could change this, but nothing here supports trading it.

All 24 variants, train vs test

Fall X Vol x Window OI filter Period n P(+40 in 30m) % Control % p (Fisher, >control) Holm p Low holds 60m % Control % CE trades CE avg pts (scale-out) Win % Random avg p vs random Holm p CE avg pts (SL-only) Holm p (SL-only)
150 3 1bar any train 34 29.41 24.07 0.38 1.00 23.53 16.67 34 -12.16 26.47 -7.03 0.94 1.00 -8.71 1.00
150 3 1bar any test 75 30.67 25.93 0.32 1.00 17.33 19.75 75 -9.84 36.00 -7.92 0.83 1.00 -11.64 1.00
150 3 1bar oi_down train 11 18.18 24.07 0.79 1.00 9.09 16.67 11 -20.49 0.00 -7.03 1.00 1.00 -20.49 1.00
150 3 1bar oi_down test 20 20.00 25.93 0.80 1.00 5.00 19.75 20 -12.53 25.00 -7.92 0.89 1.00 -13.10 1.00
150 3 3bar any train 37 37.84 24.07 0.12 1.00 24.32 16.67 37 -7.19 40.54 -7.03 0.51 1.00 0.10 1.00
150 3 3bar any test 86 27.91 25.93 0.46 1.00 18.60 19.75 86 -8.65 34.88 -7.92 0.65 1.00 -9.03 1.00
150 3 3bar oi_down train 14 28.57 24.07 0.49 1.00 14.29 16.67 14 -17.11 7.14 -7.03 0.98 1.00 -19.08 1.00
150 3 3bar oi_down test 21 28.57 25.93 0.50 1.00 4.76 19.75 21 -7.27 38.10 -7.92 0.44 1.00 -9.77 1.00
150 5 1bar any train 12 41.67 24.07 0.19 1.00 16.67 16.67 12 -14.50 16.67 -7.03 0.91 1.00 -17.43 1.00
150 5 1bar any test 36 27.78 25.93 0.50 1.00 13.89 19.75 36 -10.65 30.56 -7.92 0.83 1.00 -13.59 1.00
150 5 1bar oi_down train 5 40.00 24.07 0.38 1.00 20.00 16.67 5 -16.41 0.00 -7.03 0.87 1.00 -16.41 1.00
150 5 1bar oi_down test 8 50.00 25.93 0.15 1.00 12.50 19.75 8 -8.32 37.50 -7.92 0.51 1.00 -13.96 1.00
150 5 3bar any train 13 38.46 24.07 0.24 1.00 23.08 16.67 13 -14.18 15.38 -7.03 0.92 1.00 -12.44 1.00
150 5 3bar any test 36 33.33 25.93 0.27 1.00 16.67 19.75 36 -10.31 33.33 -7.92 0.81 1.00 -11.26 1.00
150 5 3bar oi_down train 5 40.00 24.07 0.38 1.00 40.00 16.67 5 -16.42 0.00 -7.03 0.86 1.00 -16.42 1.00
150 5 3bar oi_down test 8 25.00 25.93 0.67 1.00 12.50 19.75 8 -11.08 25.00 -7.92 0.69 1.00 -11.79 1.00
200 3 1bar any train 26 34.62 21.43 0.22 1.00 23.08 17.86 26 -13.36 23.08 -7.03 0.96 1.00 -7.97 1.00
200 3 1bar any test 48 39.58 33.33 0.35 1.00 16.67 16.67 48 -10.77 39.58 -7.92 0.87 1.00 -16.28 1.00
200 3 1bar oi_down train 6 16.67 21.43 0.78 1.00 0.00 17.86 6 -23.91 0.00 -7.03 1.00 1.00 -23.91 1.00
200 3 1bar oi_down test 6 33.33 33.33 0.66 1.00 0.00 16.67 6 -19.40 16.67 -7.92 0.96 1.00 -24.00 1.00
200 3 3bar any train 28 39.29 21.43 0.12 1.00 17.86 17.86 28 -10.88 32.14 -7.03 0.86 1.00 -2.68 1.00
200 3 3bar any test 56 39.29 33.33 0.35 1.00 23.21 16.67 56 -9.69 39.29 -7.92 0.77 1.00 -11.56 1.00
200 3 3bar oi_down train 10 30.00 21.43 0.44 1.00 10.00 17.86 10 -18.16 10.00 -7.03 0.98 1.00 -20.93 1.00
200 3 3bar oi_down test 9 55.56 33.33 0.19 1.00 0.00 16.67 9 -0.87 55.56 -7.92 0.11 1.00 -10.17 1.00
200 5 1bar any train 9 44.44 21.43 0.18 1.00 11.11 17.86 9 -15.55 22.22 -7.03 0.92 1.00 -19.45 1.00
200 5 1bar any test 22 40.91 33.33 0.37 1.00 13.64 16.67 22 -7.98 50.00 -7.92 0.47 1.00 -14.09 1.00
200 5 1bar oi_down train 2 50.00 21.43 0.42 1.00 0.00 17.86 2 -23.97 0.00 — — — -23.97 —
200 5 1bar oi_down test 3 66.67 33.33 0.28 1.00 0.00 16.67 3 3.82 66.67 -7.92 0.13 1.00 -2.01 1.00
200 5 3bar any train 11 36.36 21.43 0.28 1.00 18.18 17.86 11 -13.66 18.18 -7.03 0.87 1.00 -11.61 1.00
200 5 3bar any test 19 47.37 33.33 0.22 1.00 21.05 16.67 19 -10.81 47.37 -7.92 0.76 1.00 -14.92 1.00
200 5 3bar oi_down train 3 33.33 21.43 0.55 1.00 33.33 17.86 3 -16.02 0.00 -7.03 0.78 1.00 -16.02 1.00
200 5 3bar oi_down test 0 — 33.33 — — — 16.67 0 — — — — — — —
250 3 1bar any train 14 35.71 23.53 0.36 1.00 14.29 17.65 14 -11.63 28.57 -7.03 0.83 1.00 -10.90 1.00
250 3 1bar any test 27 33.33 38.89 0.76 1.00 14.81 16.67 27 -7.26 37.04 -7.92 0.41 1.00 -8.28 1.00
250 3 1bar oi_down train 2 0.00 23.53 1.00 1.00 0.00 17.65 2 -23.87 0.00 — — — -23.87 —
250 3 1bar oi_down test 5 20.00 38.89 0.91 1.00 0.00 16.67 5 -18.55 20.00 -7.92 0.93 1.00 -24.07 1.00
250 3 3bar any train 16 37.50 23.53 0.31 1.00 6.25 17.65 16 -13.49 31.25 -7.03 0.92 1.00 -12.11 1.00
250 3 3bar any test 31 41.94 38.89 0.54 1.00 19.35 16.67 31 -6.50 45.16 -7.92 0.31 1.00 -4.68 1.00
250 3 3bar oi_down train 6 33.33 23.53 0.51 1.00 16.67 17.65 6 -15.37 16.67 -7.03 0.87 1.00 -19.98 1.00
250 3 3bar oi_down test 7 57.14 38.89 0.35 1.00 0.00 16.67 7 -1.50 57.14 -7.92 0.17 1.00 -9.51 1.00
250 5 1bar any train 5 40.00 23.53 0.42 1.00 0.00 17.65 5 -18.56 20.00 -7.03 0.92 1.00 -24.09 1.00
250 5 1bar any test 12 33.33 38.89 0.75 1.00 0.00 16.67 12 -9.71 41.67 -7.92 0.63 1.00 -13.69 1.00
250 5 1bar oi_down train 0 — 23.53 — — — 17.65 0 — — — — — — —
250 5 1bar oi_down test 3 66.67 38.89 0.39 1.00 0.00 16.67 3 3.82 66.67 -7.92 0.14 1.00 -2.01 1.00
250 5 3bar any train 7 42.86 23.53 0.32 1.00 14.29 17.65 7 -10.81 28.57 -7.03 0.68 1.00 -10.46 1.00
250 5 3bar any test 9 55.56 38.89 0.34 1.00 0.00 16.67 9 -11.27 44.44 -7.92 0.67 1.00 -15.34 1.00
250 5 3bar oi_down train 2 0.00 23.53 1.00 1.00 50.00 17.65 2 -12.08 0.00 — — — -12.08 —
250 5 3bar oi_down test 0 — 38.89 — — — 16.67 0 — — — — — — —

Controls (same period)

Kind Fall X Period n +40/15m % +40/30m % +80/30m % +80/60m % +120/60m % Low holds 60m % Low holds day % Pts to 15:14
at_low_any 150 test 131.0 20.6 34.4 10.7 19.1 9.2 3.8 1.5 -0.9
at_low_any 150 train 84.0 19.0 27.4 11.9 17.9 7.1 7.1 4.8 4.1
at_low_any 200 test 75.0 24.0 42.7 12.0 22.7 12.0 6.7 2.7 4.2
at_low_any 200 train 57.0 24.6 42.1 14.0 26.3 7.0 8.8 7.0 11.8
at_low_any 250 test 44.0 31.8 38.6 15.9 25.0 18.2 6.8 6.8 12.8
at_low_any 250 train 34.0 26.5 47.1 20.6 35.3 17.6 8.8 8.8 -10.4
control_quiet 150 test 81.0 16.0 25.9 7.4 12.3 6.2 19.8 11.1 3.1
control_quiet 150 train 54.0 13.0 24.1 3.7 11.1 5.6 16.7 7.4 12.4
control_quiet 200 test 42.0 23.8 33.3 11.9 21.4 11.9 16.7 9.5 11.9
control_quiet 200 train 28.0 17.9 21.4 7.1 14.3 3.6 17.9 3.6 2.0
control_quiet 250 test 18.0 27.8 38.9 11.1 27.8 22.2 16.7 16.7 29.7
control_quiet 250 train 17.0 23.5 23.5 11.8 17.6 11.8 17.6 17.6 7.2
price_bar 150 test 126.0 17.5 25.4 10.3 15.9 7.1 15.9 9.5 -2.1
price_bar 150 train 77.0 15.6 33.8 9.1 15.6 6.5 18.2 6.5 5.0
price_bar 200 test 73.0 24.7 41.1 11.0 20.5 8.2 17.8 9.6 7.5
price_bar 200 train 50.0 16.0 40.0 10.0 24.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 12.9
price_bar 250 test 41.0 24.4 36.6 12.2 24.4 14.6 19.5 12.2 9.6
price_bar 250 train 30.0 30.0 43.3 20.0 30.0 16.7 13.3 10.0 -6.5

Price-only version (no volume), 2022–2026: train 2022–24 vs test 2025–26

Kind Fall X Period n +40/15m % +40/30m % +80/30m % +80/60m % +120/60m % Low holds 60m % Low holds day % Pts to 15:14
at_low_any 150 test 2025-26 185.0 21.1 33.0 10.8 19.5 8.6 4.3 2.2 1.1
at_low_any 150 train 2022-24 223.0 19.7 32.7 8.5 16.1 7.2 8.1 4.9 -4.5
at_low_any 200 test 2025-26 111.0 26.1 41.4 12.6 24.3 10.8 8.1 4.5 8.4
at_low_any 200 train 2022-24 118.0 26.3 39.8 12.7 22.9 7.6 8.5 5.1 -2.7
at_low_any 250 test 2025-26 66.0 27.3 40.9 18.2 27.3 18.2 9.1 9.1 7.7
at_low_any 250 train 2022-24 67.0 31.3 44.8 14.9 31.3 11.9 6.0 3.0 -3.9
price_bar 150 test 2025-26 176.0 17.0 25.6 9.7 15.9 6.8 16.5 9.1 -0.7
price_bar 150 train 2022-24 207.0 18.4 30.9 6.3 13.0 6.3 16.4 7.7 -5.9
price_bar 200 test 2025-26 104.0 20.2 39.4 9.6 21.2 8.7 17.3 10.6 13.8
price_bar 200 train 2022-24 109.0 19.3 33.0 8.3 20.2 4.6 17.4 11.0 -7.6
price_bar 250 test 2025-26 59.0 22.0 37.3 13.6 25.4 15.3 16.9 11.9 8.2
price_bar 250 train 2022-24 56.0 28.6 41.1 10.7 23.2 8.9 21.4 12.5 -17.7

price_bar = the reversal bar alone; at_low_any = first touch of the low after the fall. The reversal bar does not improve on the plain touch either: +40 in 30 min 25–41% vs 33–45%.

Year by year (3-bar ≥3x variants vs control)

Kind Fall X Year n +40/15m % +40/30m % +80/30m % +80/60m % +120/60m % Low holds 60m % Low holds day % Pts to 15:14
control_quiet 150 2024 13.0 15.4 30.8 7.7 15.4 7.7 15.4 7.7 14.6
control_quiet 150 2025 66.0 10.6 22.7 4.5 10.6 6.1 25.8 13.6 15.6
control_quiet 150 2026 56.0 19.6 26.8 7.1 12.5 5.4 10.7 5.4 -5.3
control_quiet 200 2024 9.0 22.2 22.2 11.1 22.2 0.0 11.1 0.0 -48.9
control_quiet 200 2025 24.0 12.5 25.0 4.2 12.5 8.3 25.0 8.3 24.4
control_quiet 200 2026 37.0 27.0 32.4 13.5 21.6 10.8 13.5 8.1 11.1
control_quiet 250 2024 5.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -71.7
control_quiet 250 2025 12.0 25.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 25.0 25.0 40.1
control_quiet 250 2026 18.0 27.8 38.9 11.1 27.8 22.2 16.7 16.7 29.7
signal 150 2024 8.0 25.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 -30.3
signal 150 2025 54.0 11.1 22.2 7.4 16.7 7.4 14.8 7.4 13.9
signal 150 2026 61.0 23.0 36.1 11.5 23.0 13.1 24.6 14.8 -13.0
signal 200 2024 7.0 28.6 57.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 28.6 -32.7
signal 200 2025 31.0 16.1 35.5 9.7 22.6 9.7 19.4 12.9 36.1
signal 200 2026 46.0 23.9 39.1 8.7 26.1 15.2 21.7 13.0 -16.7
signal 250 2024 4.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 -54.2
signal 250 2025 13.0 15.4 30.8 7.7 15.4 7.7 0.0 0.0 -9.5
signal 250 2026 30.0 20.0 43.3 10.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 13.3 -13.5

ATM CE P&L by year (3-bar ≥3x variants, nearest expiry)

Fall X Exit style Year Trades Avg pts Total pts Random avg pts
150.0 scale 2024 8 -14.4 -115.4 -8.4
150.0 scale 2025 54 -7.0 -377.3 -6.8
150.0 scale 2026 61 -8.5 -517.4 -8.6
150.0 sl_only 2024 8 -10.4 -83.1 -7.7
150.0 sl_only 2025 54 -2.5 -132.6 -6.5
150.0 sl_only 2026 61 -9.1 -557.7 -8.2
200.0 scale 2024 7 -12.9 -90.5 -8.4
200.0 scale 2025 31 -9.7 -300.7 -6.8
200.0 scale 2026 46 -9.9 -456.2 -8.6
200.0 sl_only 2024 7 -8.3 -58.1 -7.7
200.0 sl_only 2025 31 -6.2 -191.3 -6.5
200.0 sl_only 2026 46 -10.3 -473.2 -8.2
250.0 scale 2024 4 -18.0 -72.1 -8.4
250.0 scale 2025 13 -12.9 -167.4 -6.8
250.0 scale 2026 30 -5.9 -177.9 -8.6
250.0 sl_only 2024 4 -13.9 -55.6 -7.7
250.0 sl_only 2025 13 -12.5 -161.9 -6.5
250.0 sl_only 2026 30 -4.0 -121.4 -8.2

Benchmarks (all variants pooled, nearest expiry)

Entry set Exit style Trades Avg pts Median pts Win %
control_quiet scale 240 -9.30 -23.72 32.50
control_quiet sl_only 240 -7.00 -23.80 21.67
price_bar scale 410 -10.60 -23.77 32.20
price_bar sl_only 410 -9.53 -23.83 20.98
random scale 4000 -7.64 -13.57 35.22
random sl_only 4000 -7.26 -17.76 26.32
signal scale 825 -10.66 -23.75 32.61
signal sl_only 825 -11.43 -23.82 19.88

Sensitivity: skip same-day expiry

Fall X Expiry Exit Trades Avg pts
150.00 nearest scale 123 -8.21
150.00 nearest sl_only 123 -6.29
150.00 skip0DTE scale 123 -8.84
150.00 skip0DTE sl_only 123 -6.37
200.00 nearest scale 84 -10.09
200.00 nearest sl_only 84 -8.60
200.00 skip0DTE scale 84 -10.48
200.00 skip0DTE sl_only 84 -7.40
250.00 nearest scale 47 -8.88
250.00 nearest sl_only 47 -7.21
250.00 skip0DTE scale 47 -9.33
250.00 skip0DTE sl_only 47 -5.44

Where the signal fired in Oct-2026

Date Signal @ # configs firing (first of day) Max X met Fall from high Fut vol x (1m) Fut vol x (3m) Max up 30m Max up 60m Low held 60m
2026-10-12 12:11 3 250 298.8 1.1 3.1 41.2 46.2 True
2026-10-14 13:05 6 150 152.4 4.3 5.5 2.6 50.7 False
2026-10-14 13:15 1 150 199.0 5.1 4.0 36.9 84.3 True
2026-10-19 12:05 6 200 235.8 5.3 4.4 15.0 15.0 False
2026-10-19 13:25 1 250 311.1 2.6 3.4 22.5 22.5 False
2026-10-19 13:30 1 250 314.2 4.8 2.7 28.6 28.6 False
2026-10-21 10:08 1 150 170.0 3.8 2.2 27.7 27.9 False
2026-10-21 11:37 5 250 275.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.3 False
2026-10-21 11:43 6 250 306.9 4.7 4.1 10.9 10.9 False
2026-10-21 13:42 3 250 426.7 6.9 3.0 6.2 6.2 False
2026-10-23 10:18 3 250 328.0 3.4 2.8 61.8 61.8 False
2026-10-23 12:46 3 250 397.9 1.5 3.6 35.1 183.3 False

On 21-Oct the signal fired at 10:08, 11:37, 11:43 and 13:42 — all before the real 14:47 low. On 19-Oct it fired at 12:05/13:25/13:30, before the 13:47 low. This is why it loses: heavy volume near a running low happens during capitulation too, so the signal catches falling knives.

Data notes for sections 7–8

Files: lows/results/ (lows_summary, lows_minute_windows, lows_stock_bounce, p2_events, p2_option_trades, p2_config_stats, …) · scripts: lows/scripts/

9. Who bought and who sold: 23-Oct 13:38 burst and 13-Oct rally (added 25-Oct-2026 08:45 IST)

Short answer. NSE does not publish who traded in a given minute, only end-of-day positions by category (FII, DII, Pro = brokers' own trading, Client = retail and other clients). So the per-minute identities below are inference. The end-of-day positions are direct evidence.
23-Oct 13:38 (+137 futures pts in 5 min): the burst started with aggressive buying in Nifty futures. Nifty futures volume was 8.8x normal, against 3.1x in Bank Nifty futures. The futures premium widened from ~64 to ~85 points, and all heavyweights turned up in the same minute (13:38), which looks like a basket being bought, not stock-specific news. Call writers were the forced buyers: call OI at the 21,950–22,900 strikes fell by ~448k contracts between 13:37 and 13:47 while call premiums rose 38% (22,200) to 84% (22,800). Put writers were the sellers from 13:41: put OI rose by ~93k contracts, with fresh puts written at 22,500–22,600. Futures OI rose (fresh longs, not short covering), but the intraday OI feed is unreliable that day. End of day: Pro added the most index-futures longs (+8,833) and also +7,583 shorts. FIIs added both sides (+2,283 long / +2,166 short, net flat): net buyers of Nifty futures (+1,626 contracts, ₹224 cr) and net sellers of Bank Nifty futures (−2,257, −₹377 cr). Clients sold: they added +2,921 futures shorts and wrote puts (+246,800 short against +102,621 long). FIIs and Pros bought puts. The burst was fully reversed: the day closed −88 with short buildup in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures.
13-Oct (+359): buyers were FIIs and Pros, sellers were clients. FIIs bought 18,726 and sold 12,361 index futures, a net +6,365 made up of 3,217 shorts covered and 3,148 new longs. Pros were net +6,337 (3,052 shorts covered). Clients were net −13,072: they sold 11,981 longs and added 1,091 shorts. Most of the rise came at 09:15–10:00 (+245 spot, IT results; HCL Tech cash volume 10x) while Nifty futures OI fell by ~4,400 contracts, which is short covering. The afternoon leg (14:15–15:00, +98; FM remarks from 14:25) came with futures OI rising (+2,540), which is fresh longs, and call OI in the expiring weekly falling ~966k contracts (call writers covering on expiry day). In cash, FIIs were still net sellers (−₹1,305 cr) and DIIs net buyers (+₹2,439 cr).

Direct: NSE participant-wise index derivatives (contracts; change vs previous session)

date who idx fut bought idx fut sold fut long OI chg fut short OI chg net fut chg call long chg call short chg put long chg put short chg net calls net puts
2026-10-13 Client 47110 60182 -11981 1091 -13072 -2656825 -2380246 -821652 -967974 -276579 146322
2026-10-13 DII 519 149 321 -49 370 5546 -1659 5716 -1365 7205 7081
2026-10-13 FII 18726 12361 3148 -3217 6365 -339611 -412402 -129774 -108689 72791 -21085
2026-10-13 Pro 31967 25630 3285 -3052 6337 -646874 -843457 -275963 -143645 196583 -132318
2026-10-23 Client 88427 91404 -56 2921 -2977 468886 525230 102621 246800 -56344 -144179
2026-10-23 DII 21547 19937 -663 -2273 1610 1143 66 1083 166 1077 917
2026-10-23 FII 83398 83281 2283 2166 117 153409 143003 115545 44774 10406 70771
2026-10-23 Pro 44859 43609 8833 7583 1250 293650 248788 167352 94860 44862 72492

Source: NSE fao_participant_oi / fao_participant_vol archives. 'bought/sold' = that day's long/short-side volume. Index futures and options cover all indices (Nifty, Bank Nifty, etc.). 13-Oct was a weekly Nifty expiry, so its option OI changes are mostly expiry settlement.

23-Oct intraday: Nifty and Bank Nifty futures by phase (Upstox 1m)

phase (IST) Nifty spot pts Nifty Oct fut pts Nifty fut vol (ctr, all exp) Nifty fut OI chg (all exp) Nifty fut OI chg (Oct) BN spot pts BN fut vol BN fut OI chg
13:20->13:37 46 48 2524 1304 73 132 1225 1724
13:37->13:41 93 102 4929 1461 707 191 561 -494
13:41->13:47 31 45 7131 3568 1933 48 795 -136
13:47->13:54 -72 -83 2045 1680 405 -173 531 94
13:54->14:10 45 38 3308 -1525 -3578 111 1082 407

23-Oct intraday: Nifty 27-Oct options, strikes 21,950–22,900 (OI change and volume in contracts)

phase (IST) CE OI chg (contracts) PE OI chg (contracts) CE volume (contracts) PE volume (contracts)
13:20->13:37 -4,220 1,262 1,280,286 1,525,925
13:37->13:41 -235,949 -10,340 1,757,245 1,292,753
13:41->13:47 -212,064 93,024 1,854,387 1,662,216
13:47->13:54 -39,803 45,689 887,144 1,482,221
13:54->14:10 26,995 18,472 1,807,318 2,150,528

23-Oct burst: heavyweights (cash, 13:36→13:47)

stock Nifty pts 13:36→13:47 % move cash vol vs 20d first +0.15% minute
ICICIBANK 14 1 1 13:38
RELIANCE 13 1 2 13:38
HDFCBANK 9 0 1 13:38
LT 8 1 1 13:38
INFY 6 1 3 13:38
ETERNAL 6 1 3 13:37
SBIN 6 1 2 13:38
AXISBANK 5 1 1 13:38
BHARTIARTL 4 0 1 13:39
KOTAKBANK 3 0 1 13:38

All 50 stocks together: +136.8 pts. Banks (HDFCB, ICICI, Axis, Kotak, SBI) +36.7, Reliance +13.2, IT +11.8. Bank Nifty and Nifty turned in the same minute (BN spot +0.19%, Nifty +0.20% at 13:38), so there was no Bank Nifty lead this time. Bulk deals 23-Oct: no Nifty-50 stock appears. Block deals 23-Oct: none.

13-Oct intraday: Nifty futures by phase

phase (IST) Nifty spot pts Nifty Oct fut pts Nifty fut vol (ctr) Nifty fut OI chg (all exp) BN spot pts BN fut OI chg
09:15->09:30 144 148 8614 -2085 295 -656
09:30->10:00 101 106 11238 -2352 144 -1070
13:45->14:15 20 16 2585 8 49 -174
14:15->14:30 22 28 2746 372 72 212
14:30->14:45 60 65 5775 293 182 204
14:45->15:00 16 16 9336 1875 -8 286
15:00->15:14 26 34 5115 -412 29 780

Caveats. (1) Who traded in a given minute is not published; the per-minute identities above are inferred from end-of-day category positions plus OI, premium and options patterns. (2) On 23-Oct (rollover week) Upstox 1m Nifty Oct-futures OI ended at 13.39M against NSE's official 11.32M. Calendar-spread trades are missing from the 1m feed (1m volume = 72% of the day's total), and one bar (13:57) shows a −2,939-contract OI jump on 185 contracts of volume, which is impossible. So the 23-Oct futures 'fresh longs' reading is low confidence. Option 1m OI matched NSE end-of-day within 1–2%. 13-Oct futures 1m volume matched NSE exactly. (3) Spot 15:15–15:29 is not used. (4) 13-Oct bulk/block deals: not available free (NSE historical API returned 503; the archive keeps only the latest day). Data: whoflow/results/, scripts: whoflow/scripts/.

Files

All CSVs in results/: daily_summary, contrib_daily_pts, contrib_windows_long, window_recon, swing_legs, bursts, stock_volume_spikes, stock_day_flow (per stock per day: volume ratio, up-vol share, VWAP, delivery), minute_timeline, participant_oi, fii_deriv_stats, nifty_options_daily, nifty_options_strikes, market_breadth, volume_coverage_check, news_by_session. Scripts: scripts/.