R0277: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When price vs prior-day low ≤ +0.32% (≈+80 pts at 25,000) AND (it is Wednesday or it is Thursday or it is Friday) AND 1-min ADX(14) ≤ 36.4 at 09:30

Target: price reaches the prior-day low after 09:30 (days not yet at PDL) · Decision time: 09:30 IST (uses bars up to 09:30 only) · Method: rulefit · Family: level / structure

91%train hit (n=44) vs base 28% · lift 3.29

58%OOS hit (n=33) vs base 26% · lift 2.18

[41%–73%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

8.3e-04OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 5.0e-04 · Holm 0.121

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 3.5e-18; train BH q 7.0e-15; train Holm 3.3e-11 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: False.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	9	78%	27%	2.90
2023	17	100%	27%	3.75
2024	18	89%	29%	3.02
2025 (OOS)	25	56%	29%	1.90
2026 (OOS)	8	62%	22%	2.90

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter short at 09:30 price, take profit at PDL; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	44	89%	+24.2	+30.6	+1063.3	+150.8	+4.2
OOS 2025–26	33	61%	-14.0	-4.3	-462.9	+538.7	+0.6

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.