R0404: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 09:45 (either direction) ≤ 0.06% (≈16 pts at 25,000) AND prior-day range ≤ 1.03% (≈257 pts at 25,000) at 09:45

Target: price never trades back to the open after 09:45 · Decision time: 09:45 IST (uses bars up to 09:45 only) · Method: tree · Family: level / structure

0%train hit (n=95) vs base 32% · lift 0.00

5%OOS hit (n=57) vs base 40% · lift 0.13

[2%–14%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

8.7e-08OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 5.3e-08 · Holm 2.3e-06

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 1.5e-16; train BH q 2.2e-13; train Holm 1.4e-09 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	27	0%	36%	0.00
2023	40	0%	31%	0.00
2024	28	0%	30%	0.00
2025 (OOS)	29	3%	42%	0.08
2026 (OOS)	28	7%	38%	0.19

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 09:45 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	95	46%	+0.4	+6.4	+36.9	+615.8	+1.0
OOS 2025–26	57	46%	-4.9	+6.0	-277.7	+1203.9	+0.9

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.