R0504: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When range so far (high−low since 09:15) > 0.84% (≈211 pts at 25,000) AND size of the move from the open to 10:15 (either direction) > 0.70% (≈175 pts at 25,000) at 10:15

Target: the day closes more than 150 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 10:15 IST (uses bars up to 10:15 only) · Method: rulefit · Family: level / structure

68%train hit (n=34) vs base 19% · lift 3.61

77%OOS hit (n=26) vs base 25% · lift 3.04

[58%–89%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

1.0e-06OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 6.2e-07 · Holm 4.7e-05

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 1.2e-09; train BH q 2.8e-07; train Holm 0.011 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	20	65%	25%	2.62
2023	6	67%	8%	8.17
2024	8	75%	23%	3.24
2025 (OOS)	16	75%	25%	3.05
2026 (OOS)	10	80%	26%	3.06

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 10:15 price in the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	34	44%	+15.4	+21.4	+522.7	+547.2	+1.4
OOS 2025–26	26	46%	+5.0	+14.0	+129.9	+276.7	+1.1

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.