R0513: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 10:15 (either direction) ≤ 0.17% (≈43 pts at 25,000) AND India VIX (prior day's close) ≤ 12.1 AND 1-min ATR(14) as % of price ≤ 0.0388 at 10:15

Target: the day closes more than 150 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 10:15 IST (uses bars up to 10:15 only) · Method: subgroup · Family: level / structure

0%train hit (n=72) vs base 19% · lift 0.00

7%OOS hit (n=69) vs base 25% · lift 0.29

[3%–16%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

6.8e-04OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 4.1e-04 · Holm 0.094

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 6.6e-07; train BH q 6.0e-05; train Holm 1.000 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.277 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	0	–	25%	–
2023	67	0%	8%	0.00
2024	5	0%	23%	0.00
2025 (OOS)	43	7%	25%	0.28
2026 (OOS)	26	8%	26%	0.29

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 10:15 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	72	54%	+5.1	+10.8	+367.5	+399.7	+1.2
OOS 2025–26	69	36%	-20.3	-9.8	-1398.6	+1506.4	+0.6

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.