R0524: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 10:15 (either direction) ≤ 0.09% (≈22 pts at 25,000) AND opening gap vs prior close ≥ +0.21% (≈+53 pts at 25,000) AND opening-range size ≤ 0.35% (≈88 pts at 25,000) at 10:15

Target: the day closes more than 50 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 10:15 IST (uses bars up to 10:15 only) · Method: subgroup · Family: level / structure

6%train hit (n=34) vs base 52% · lift 0.11

29%OOS hit (n=21) vs base 57% · lift 0.50

[14%–50%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

0.022OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 0.014 · Holm 1.000

0.007OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 2.2e-08; train BH q 3.5e-06; train Holm 0.207 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	8	12%	61%	0.21
2023	18	6%	41%	0.13
2024	8	0%	54%	0.00
2025 (OOS)	10	10%	60%	0.17
2026 (OOS)	11	46%	55%	0.83

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 10:15 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	34	62%	+36.0	+41.8	+1224.2	+239.4	+3.7
OOS 2025–26	21	52%	-0.6	+10.7	-13.5	+413.2	+1.0

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.