R0550: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 10:15 (either direction) ≤ 0.09% (≈22 pts at 25,000) AND CPR width ≤ 0.13% (≈33 pts at 25,000) AND opening gap vs prior close is positive at 10:15

Target: price never trades back to the open after 10:15 · Decision time: 10:15 IST (uses bars up to 10:15 only) · Method: subgroup · Family: level / structure

0%train hit (n=43) vs base 40% · lift 0.00

8%OOS hit (n=25) vs base 46% · lift 0.17

[2%–25%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

2.9e-04OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 1.7e-04 · Holm 0.034

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 4.7e-10; train BH q 1.2e-07; train Holm 0.004 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	4	0%	44%	0.00
2023	28	0%	37%	0.00
2024	11	0%	39%	0.00
2025 (OOS)	10	10%	50%	0.20
2026 (OOS)	15	7%	41%	0.16

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 10:15 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	43	63%	+26.0	+32.0	+1116.1	+220.6	+2.4
OOS 2025–26	25	48%	+21.7	+33.4	+542.8	+483.0	+1.7

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.