R0634: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 11:00 (either direction) ≤ 0.05% (≈12 pts at 25,000) AND 1-min RSI(14) > 34.9 AND position in today's range so far (0 = at low, 1 = at high) ≤ 0.875 at 11:00

Target: the day closes on the same side of the open as the move so far · Decision time: 11:00 IST (uses bars up to 11:00 only) · Method: rulefit · Family: level / structure

34%train hit (n=64) vs base 73% · lift 0.47

50%OOS hit (n=34) vs base 73% · lift 0.68

[34%–66%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

0.011OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 0.007 · Holm 1.000

0.002OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 3.6e-10; train BH q 1.0e-07; train Holm 0.003 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: False.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	14	64%	77%	0.84
2023	29	31%	68%	0.46
2024	21	19%	74%	0.26
2025 (OOS)	18	44%	78%	0.57
2026 (OOS)	16	56%	68%	0.83

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 11:00 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	64	59%	+10.5	+16.7	+672.3	+500.0	+1.5
OOS 2025–26	34	44%	+1.2	+11.6	+41.7	+411.8	+1.0

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.