R0767: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When (it is Monday or it is Tuesday or it is Wednesday) AND size of the move from the open to 13:00 (either direction) ≤ 0.16% (≈39 pts at 25,000) AND size of the opening gap ≤ 0.24% (≈59 pts at 25,000) at 13:00

Target: the day closes on the same side of the open as the move so far · Decision time: 13:00 IST (uses bars up to 13:00 only) · Method: rulefit · Family: level / structure

39%train hit (n=56) vs base 79% · lift 0.50

58%OOS hit (n=43) vs base 83% · lift 0.70

[43%–72%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

5.8e-04OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 3.5e-04 · Holm 0.079

1.0e-03OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 2.4e-10; train BH q 7.1e-08; train Holm 0.002 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	7	57%	80%	0.72
2023	24	46%	76%	0.60
2024	25	28%	81%	0.34
2025 (OOS)	25	52%	85%	0.61
2026 (OOS)	18	67%	81%	0.82

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 13:00 price against the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	56	64%	+16.6	+23.0	+928.4	+204.0	+2.1
OOS 2025–26	43	49%	-7.7	+2.2	-332.1	+873.8	+0.8

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.