R0769: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 13:00 (either direction) > 0.78% (≈194 pts at 25,000) AND 1-min ATR(14) as % of price ≤ 0.0466 at 13:00

Target: the day closes more than 100 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 13:00 IST (uses bars up to 13:00 only) · Method: tree · Family: level / structure

98%train hit (n=60) vs base 36% · lift 2.72

84%OOS hit (n=38) vs base 45% · lift 1.86

[70%–93%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

1.1e-05OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 6.8e-06 · Holm 7.8e-04

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 7.0e-25; train BH q 6.0e-21; train Holm 6.5e-18 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: False.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	24	100%	40%	2.51
2023	14	100%	25%	3.94
2024	22	96%	43%	2.21
2025 (OOS)	20	90%	46%	1.98
2026 (OOS)	18	78%	45%	1.73

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 13:00 price in the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	60	53%	+6.1	+12.3	+365.6	+466.6	+1.3
OOS 2025–26	38	45%	-3.5	+6.8	-133.1	+428.8	+0.9

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.