R0773: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 13:00 (either direction) ≥ 0.64% (≈160 pts at 25,000) AND price vs session TWAP (time-weighted VWAP) ≤ -0.18% (≈-46 pts at 25,000) AND price vs prior-day low ≤ -0.08% (≈-19 pts at 25,000) at 13:00

Target: the day closes more than 100 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 13:00 IST (uses bars up to 13:00 only) · Method: subgroup · Family: level / structure

96%train hit (n=48) vs base 36% · lift 2.65

79%OOS hit (n=24) vs base 45% · lift 1.75

[60%–91%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

0.003OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 0.002 · Holm 0.573

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 4.7e-18; train BH q 9.1e-15; train Holm 4.3e-11 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: False.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	16	94%	40%	2.35
2023	13	92%	25%	3.63
2024	19	100%	43%	2.31
2025 (OOS)	11	73%	46%	1.60
2026 (OOS)	13	85%	45%	1.88

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 13:00 price in the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	48	52%	+4.4	+10.7	+212.3	+505.0	+1.1
OOS 2025–26	24	42%	-1.7	+8.1	-40.1	+440.7	+1.0

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.