R0901: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 14:30 (either direction) ≥ 0.76% (≈190 pts at 25,000) AND move from the open to 14:30 ≥ +0.08% (≈+20 pts at 25,000) AND range so far (high−low since 09:15) ≥ 1.24% (≈309 pts at 25,000) at 14:30

Target: the day closes more than 150 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 14:30 IST (uses bars up to 14:30 only) · Method: subgroup · Family: level / structure

100%train hit (n=40) vs base 22% · lift 4.52

90%OOS hit (n=20) vs base 29% · lift 3.06

[70%–97%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

6.1e-07OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 3.7e-07 · Holm 2.5e-05

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 1.2e-26; train BH q 1.4e-22; train Holm 1.1e-19 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	20	100%	28%	3.57
2023	1	100%	10%	9.80
2024	19	100%	28%	3.57
2025 (OOS)	11	82%	28%	2.94
2026 (OOS)	9	100%	31%	3.18

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 14:30 price in the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	40	62%	+9.4	+15.7	+375.7	+163.2	+1.5
OOS 2025–26	20	30%	-20.8	-10.3	-415.4	+644.0	+0.5

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.