R0904: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When size of the move from the open to 14:30 (either direction) > 0.70% (≈175 pts at 25,000) AND range so far (high−low since 09:15) > 1.26% (≈314 pts at 25,000) AND opening-range size > 0.42% (≈106 pts at 25,000) at 14:30

Target: the day closes more than 150 pts beyond the open in the direction of the move so far · Decision time: 14:30 IST (uses bars up to 14:30 only) · Method: tree · Family: level / structure

97%train hit (n=70) vs base 22% · lift 4.39

94%OOS hit (n=35) vs base 29% · lift 3.21

[81%–98%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

2.1e-13OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 1.3e-13 · Holm 8.3e-13

5.0e-04OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 8.2e-42; train BH q 6.1e-37; train Holm 7.5e-35 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	37	97%	28%	3.47
2023	7	86%	10%	8.40
2024	26	100%	28%	3.57
2025 (OOS)	16	88%	28%	3.14
2026 (OOS)	19	100%	31%	3.18

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter at 14:30 price in the move direction; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	70	50%	+2.0	+8.2	+142.4	+757.9	+1.1
OOS 2025–26	35	46%	+1.5	+11.8	+53.4	+200.8	+1.1

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.