R0951: PASS

Descriptive statistics, no trading costs in the probabilities (the backtest columns alone use estimated costs). Rules were discovered and tuned on 2022-01 → 2024-12 only, frozen, then tested once on 2025-01 → 2026-10. Millions of hypotheses were searched, so read the corrected p-values and the out-of-sample columns, not the training hit rates. Not investment advice; not a trading system.

Rule: When price vs prior-day high > -0.43% (≈-108 pts at 25,000) AND CPR width > 0.11% (≈27 pts at 25,000) at 14:30

Target: price reaches the prior-day high after 14:30 (days not yet at PDH) · Decision time: 14:30 IST (uses bars up to 14:30 only) · Method: rulefit · Family: level / structure

43%train hit (n=37) vs base 7% · lift 6.11

18%OOS hit (n=28) vs base 3% · lift 5.27

[8%–36%]OOS Wilson 95% CI

0.008OOS BH q (all) · family BH q 0.005 · Holm 1.000

0.018OOS matched-random placebo p

Verdict criteria

✔ Out-of-sample lift in the same direction as train
✔ OOS Wilson 95% CI excludes the OOS base rate
✔ OOS BH q ≤ 0.05 across all candidates tested OOS AND within its target family
✔ Train BH q ≤ 0.05 (across all hypotheses searched)
✔ Stable by year (same direction in ≥80% of years with ≥10 days, incl. every OOS year with ≥10)
✔ OOS matched-random placebo p ≤ 0.05
✔ OOS sample ≥ 20 days

Train p 2.4e-09; train BH q 5.2e-07; train Holm 0.022 (corrections over all 9,242,869 hypotheses); whole-pipeline shuffled-label placebo family-wise p 0.010 (100 permutations). Extra conditions beat the best single condition OOS: True.

By year

year	rule days	hit	base (all days)	lift
2022	13	54%	7%	7.36
2023	11	46%	6%	8.33
2024	13	31%	8%	3.69
2025 (OOS)	17	18%	3%	5.65
2026 (OOS)	11	18%	4%	4.91

Spot-points backtest (estimated costs)

enter long at 14:30 price, take profit at PDH; stop 0.4% of entry; exit at close. Costs: Nifty futures round-trip model from nifty-setups-backtest/src/costs.py (brokerage, exchange, SEBI, stamp, GST, STT by date: 0.0125% → 0.02% from Oct-2024 → 0.05% from Apr-2026) + 0.5 pt slippage per side; spot used as a futures proxy (basis ignored); stop-first on ambiguous bars.

window	trades	win rate	avg net pts	avg gross pts	total net	max DD pts	PF
train 2022–24 (in-sample)	37	68%	+1.8	+7.8	+66.3	+257.9	+1.1
OOS 2025–26	28	36%	-12.6	-2.0	-354.0	+354.0	+0.4

equity curve

trades.csv · Generated 2026-10-10 00:44 IST.