Bank earnings → Bank Nifty / Nifty reaction model
Built 2026-10-16 for the Sat 17 Oct 2026 results (HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Yes Bank); next session Mon 19 Oct. 293 result events, 2012-01-19 → 2026-08-07, banks: HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Kotak, SBI.
Research, not advice. Small samples (~57–59 quarters per bank, far fewer per table cell). Every number below shows n and a confidence interval. Treat cells with n<10 as anecdotes.
Bottom line (plain English)
- The bank's own stock reacts to the surprise; the index mostly doesn't. Surprise vs stock next-open gap: Spearman ρ = 0.23 (p=0.0029, n=160). Surprise vs Bank Nifty gap: ρ = 0.04 (p=0.5969) — statistically nothing. Nifty: ρ = 0.03.
- Stock reaction day: beats median +0.70% (n=113), misses -0.43% (n=97); beat-vs-miss difference p=0.0084. Spread is huge (IQR ≈ ±2–3%).
- Bank Nifty gap after a single bank's result: beat +0.23% · inline +0.22% · miss +0.12%. But every Bank Nifty session since 2012 has a median gap of +0.13% (upward drift), so the miss-vs-beat gap difference (p=0.2379) is not significant.
- Result days are bigger days: median absolute Bank Nifty gap is 0.51% after results vs 0.32% on all days (0.35% on all Mondays). Expect a larger-than-normal open, direction set more by the combined picture and global cues.
- Multi-bank Saturday weekends (the 17 Oct setup): when more banks beat than missed, Monday Bank Nifty gap median +0.26% (90% CI +0.12…+0.80, n=10, 80% up). Mixed/net-miss weekends: n=3 and 2 — no usable signal.
- Gap held through first hour (Bank Nifty, 2022+ only): after beats 64% of gaps held, inline 69%, misses 45% (n=11). Miss gaps faded more often — low n.
- Context filters (VIX ≥18, prior 5-day Bank Nifty trend) did not add reliable signal (5d-trend vs gap ρ=0.05).
Saturday 17 Oct: what to watch & how to read the table
Surprise = reported EPS vs the analyst consensus EPS published on Yahoo Finance (the same source used for history). EPS ≈ PAT ÷ shares, so for these banks EPS % ≈ PAT %. Beat = >+3% vs consensus, miss = <−3%, else inline.
| Bank | Preview (news feed 16 Oct) | Consensus EPS Q2 FY27 | EPS Q2 FY26 (year ago) | Mapping to the table |
|---|
| HDFC Bank | HDFC Bank Q2 preview: single-digit PAT growth likely; margin pressure seen / PAT, NII may rise up to 9% YoY | 12.49 | 12.09 | Consensus EPS 12.49 already implies only ~+3% YoY. A 'single-digit' print (+3% to +9%) maps to EPS 12.45–13.18, i.e. inline to beat (−0.3% to +5.5% vs consensus). Beat line ≈ EPS 12.86 (PAT YoY ≳ +6.4%); miss line ≈ 12.12 (PAT YoY ≲ +0.2%). Margin pressure is already in the preview, so a NIM dip alone is not a 'miss' here. |
| ICICI Bank | ICICI Bank Q2 preview: profit may rise 8–14% YoY, NIM likely to contract | 19.55 | 17.06 | Consensus EPS 19.55 implies ~+14.6% YoY — above the preview range. +8% to +14% maps to EPS 18.42–19.45 = −5.8% to −0.5% vs consensus, i.e. inline-to-miss. Beat line ≈ 20.14 (PAT YoY ≳ +18%); miss line ≈ 18.96 (PAT YoY ≲ +11%). Treat this as a consensus-source discrepancy: check which number the street uses on Saturday. |
| Axis Bank | Axis Bank Q2 preview: NIM may fall on FCNR(B) flows; PAT could rise 37–43% | 22.34 | 16.32 | Low base (Q2 FY26 EPS 16.32). Consensus 22.34 ≈ +37% YoY. +37% to +43% maps to EPS 22.36–23.34 = 0% to +4.5% vs consensus: inline, borderline beat. Beat line ≈ 23.01 (PAT YoY ≳ +41%); miss line ≈ 21.67 (≲ +33%). |
| Yes Bank | AT-1 Supreme Court ruling: ~₹5,400 cr earnings hit / CET1 −250 bps reported | 0.31 | 0.21 | Not in the model (not a top-5 bank; tiny index weight). Consensus EPS 0.31 predates any AT-1 provisioning; if the bank books the hit this quarter, the reported number is not comparable to consensus. Watch for headline-driven sentiment spill-over to PSU/private mid-banks, not Bank Nifty arithmetic. |
Saturday-night recipe. (1) For each of HDFC, ICICI, Axis: compute reported EPS ÷ consensus − 1 and label beat/inline/miss. (2) Read the bank's own row in "Stock reaction by surprise" for the stock. (3) For the index, count beats vs misses across the three: net beat → Monday Bank Nifty gap historically median +0.26% (IQR +0.15…+0.80); mixed/net miss → no edge, plan for a ~±0.51% open either way. (4) HDFC is the heaviest Bank Nifty weight — an HDFC miss with NIM falling is the scenario most worth respecting, though history (n=9 Saturday HDFC misses) is too thin to size off. (5) Check GIFT Nifty Monday morning: global cues frequently swamp results.
Base-case read for 19 Oct from the previews: HDFC inline/beat, ICICI inline/miss, Axis inline → a mixed weekend. History offers no directional edge for mixed weekends; expect a bigger-than-usual open (~0.5% median absolute) with direction from the actual numbers, asset quality commentary and global cues. If all three beat, the "net beat" row applies.
1. Pooled: all 5 banks, by surprise
Bank Nifty gap uses only "clean" events (results out on a weekend/holiday or after the close, so the next open is the first reaction). Stock reaction day uses all events.
| Surprise | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability | BN gap held 1st hr | Nifty gap med | Stock reaction-day med |
|---|
| beat | 65 | +0.23% | -0.01 … +0.70 | +0.12 … +0.49 | PASS | 64% (n=33) | +0.23% | +0.70% (n=113) |
| inline | 54 | +0.22% | -0.30 … +0.60 | +0.03 … +0.31 | PASS | 69% (n=26) | +0.18% | +0.01% (n=83) |
| miss | 57 | +0.12% | -0.54 … +0.67 | -0.16 … +0.23 | WATCH | 45% (n=11) | +0.14% | -0.43% (n=97) |
2. Stock reaction & Bank Nifty gap by bank × surprise
| Bank | Surprise | n | Stock reaction med | IQR | rel. | n clean | BN gap med | rel. |
|---|
| Axis Bank | beat | 25 | +0.85% | -2.41 … +4.57 | WATCH | 18 | +0.10% | WATCH |
| Axis Bank | inline | 13 | +1.23% | -2.76 … +2.39 | WATCH | 9 | +0.13% | FAIL |
| Axis Bank | miss | 21 | -3.06% | -5.11 … +2.28 | WATCH | 19 | -0.65% | WATCH |
| HDFC Bank | beat | 9 | +0.76% | -0.34 … +1.05 | FAIL | 7 | +0.49% | FAIL |
| HDFC Bank | inline | 29 | -0.56% | -1.14 … +0.84 | WATCH | 20 | +0.24% | PASS |
| HDFC Bank | miss | 21 | -0.08% | -1.25 … +1.12 | WATCH | 15 | +0.67% | WATCH |
| ICICI Bank | beat | 29 | +0.70% | -0.30 … +4.48 | PASS | 23 | +0.45% | PASS |
| ICICI Bank | inline | 19 | +0.30% | -2.14 … +2.13 | WATCH | 15 | +0.28% | WATCH |
| ICICI Bank | miss | 11 | -0.20% | -2.87 … +3.49 | WATCH | 11 | +0.44% | WATCH |
| Kotak Bank | beat | 26 | +0.27% | -1.88 … +2.70 | WATCH | 10 | +0.28% | WATCH |
| Kotak Bank | inline | 9 | +0.45% | -1.76 … +1.46 | FAIL | 6 | +0.20% | FAIL |
| Kotak Bank | miss | 22 | -0.88% | -2.85 … +0.83 | WATCH | 9 | +0.12% | FAIL |
| SBI | beat | 24 | +0.72% | -2.02 … +3.80 | WATCH | 7 | +0.82% | FAIL |
| SBI | inline | 13 | -0.66% | -2.69 … +1.14 | WATCH | 4 | -0.26% | FAIL |
| SBI | miss | 22 | -0.13% | -2.93 … +4.16 | WATCH | 3 | -0.19% | FAIL |
3. Lookup table: bank × surprise × growth momentum → Bank Nifty gap
Second axis caveat: historical NII and NIM per quarter (2012–2026) are not available from a free machine-readable source (Screener's public page shows only the last 13 quarters). So instead of "NIM up/flat/down" the second axis is EPS growth momentum: YoY EPS growth this quarter minus YoY growth last quarter (accel >+5pp, decel <−5pp, else flat). This is a trend-surprise proxy, not NIM.
| Bank | Surprise | Momentum | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability | held 1st hr | Nifty gap med | Stock gap med |
|---|
| Axis Bank | beat | accel | 9 | -0.05% | -0.16 … +0.14 | -0.16 … +0.14 | FAIL | 33% | +0.05% | +2.17% |
| Axis Bank | beat | decel | 5 | +0.40% | +0.14 … +0.49 | -0.70 … +0.68 | FAIL | 50% | +0.36% | +0.26% |
| Axis Bank | beat | flat | 4 | +0.07% | -0.17 … +0.09 | -0.86 … +0.10 | FAIL | – | -0.01% | +1.24% |
| Axis Bank | inline | accel | 1 | -1.34% | -1.34 … -1.34 | – … – | FAIL | – | -0.59% | -4.03% |
| Axis Bank | inline | decel | 3 | -0.29% | -0.73 … +0.05 | -1.17 … +0.40 | FAIL | – | -0.25% | +0.06% |
| Axis Bank | inline | flat | 5 | +0.47% | +0.13 … +1.32 | -0.01 … +2.07 | FAIL | – | +0.32% | +1.29% |
| Axis Bank | miss | accel | 7 | -0.67% | -0.97 … +0.18 | -1.18 … +0.23 | FAIL | – | -0.24% | -1.60% |
| Axis Bank | miss | decel | 9 | -0.51% | -0.78 … +0.23 | -0.78 … +0.23 | FAIL | – | +0.07% | -3.57% |
| Axis Bank | miss | flat | 3 | -1.08% | -1.15 … -0.81 | -1.22 … -0.54 | FAIL | – | -0.53% | -5.00% |
| HDFC Bank | beat | accel | 2 | +0.77% | +0.63 … +0.91 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.38% | +1.58% |
| HDFC Bank | beat | decel | 2 | -1.20% | -2.21 … -0.19 | – … – | FAIL | – | -0.59% | -2.40% |
| HDFC Bank | beat | flat | 3 | +0.28% | +0.14 … +0.39 | -0.00 … +0.51 | FAIL | – | +0.41% | +0.52% |
| HDFC Bank | inline | accel | 2 | -0.33% | -1.01 … +0.34 | – … – | FAIL | – | -0.86% | -0.43% |
| HDFC Bank | inline | decel | 1 | +0.51% | +0.51 … +0.51 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.28% | +0.40% |
| HDFC Bank | inline | flat | 17 | +0.23% | -0.03 … +0.59 | +0.09 … +0.49 | WATCH | 62% | +0.16% | +0.60% |
| HDFC Bank | miss | accel | 2 | +0.43% | +0.31 … +0.55 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.28% | +0.62% |
| HDFC Bank | miss | decel | 1 | +2.05% | +2.05 … +2.05 | – … – | FAIL | – | +1.33% | +4.47% |
| HDFC Bank | miss | flat | 12 | +0.45% | -0.28 … +1.56 | -0.20 … +1.55 | WATCH | – | +0.23% | +0.19% |
| ICICI Bank | beat | accel | 9 | +0.24% | +0.01 … +0.54 | +0.01 … +0.54 | FAIL | 50% | +0.28% | +0.84% |
| ICICI Bank | beat | decel | 7 | +0.08% | -0.19 … +1.13 | -0.42 … +1.39 | FAIL | – | +0.11% | +0.87% |
| ICICI Bank | beat | flat | 7 | +0.49% | +0.36 … +0.82 | +0.23 … +1.11 | FAIL | 80% | +0.29% | +1.56% |
| ICICI Bank | inline | decel | 8 | +0.30% | -0.58 … +1.43 | -0.87 … +1.48 | FAIL | 67% | +0.34% | +0.19% |
| ICICI Bank | inline | flat | 7 | +0.07% | -0.59 … +0.56 | -0.85 … +0.84 | FAIL | 67% | -0.24% | +0.68% |
| ICICI Bank | miss | accel | 3 | +0.81% | +0.05 … +1.34 | -0.71 … +1.87 | FAIL | – | +0.59% | +1.59% |
| ICICI Bank | miss | decel | 6 | +0.31% | +0.03 … +0.78 | -0.05 … +0.91 | FAIL | – | +0.18% | +0.74% |
| ICICI Bank | miss | flat | 2 | +0.14% | -0.01 … +0.29 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.31% | -1.18% |
Kotak & SBI rows
| Bank | Surprise | Momentum | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability | held | Nifty | Stock gap |
|---|
| Kotak Bank | beat | accel | 6 | +0.17% | +0.13 … +0.43 | -0.57 … +0.54 | FAIL | 75% | +0.25% | -0.32% |
| Kotak Bank | beat | decel | 1 | -1.28% | -1.28 … -1.28 | – … – | FAIL | – | -0.39% | -0.45% |
| Kotak Bank | beat | flat | 3 | +0.90% | +0.64 … +1.14 | +0.37 … +1.38 | FAIL | – | +0.50% | -0.01% |
| Kotak Bank | inline | accel | 4 | +0.23% | +0.08 … +0.37 | -0.01 … +0.60 | FAIL | 67% | +0.28% | +0.52% |
| Kotak Bank | inline | decel | 2 | +0.07% | -0.01 … +0.15 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.10% | -1.77% |
| Kotak Bank | miss | accel | 3 | -0.04% | -0.30 … +0.09 | -0.56 … +0.23 | FAIL | – | -0.15% | -0.01% |
| Kotak Bank | miss | decel | 5 | +0.12% | +0.08 … +0.27 | -0.23 … +1.74 | FAIL | – | -0.01% | -0.03% |
| Kotak Bank | miss | flat | 1 | +0.51% | +0.51 … +0.51 | – … – | FAIL | – | +0.41% | -1.13% |
| SBI | beat | accel | 3 | +1.17% | +1.15 … +1.37 | +1.14 … +1.56 | FAIL | – | +0.76% | +4.35% |
| SBI | beat | decel | 4 | +0.06% | -0.12 … +0.36 | -0.14 … +0.51 | FAIL | – | +0.25% | +1.13% |
| SBI | inline | decel | 3 | -0.02% | -0.75 … +0.35 | -1.49 … +0.71 | FAIL | – | +0.31% | -0.39% |
| SBI | inline | flat | 1 | -0.51% | -0.51 … -0.51 | – … – | FAIL | – | -0.34% | +0.30% |
| SBI | miss | decel | 3 | -0.19% | -0.20 … +0.03 | -0.20 … +0.26 | FAIL | – | +0.02% | -1.33% |
Almost every cell is WATCH/FAIL: this is the honest result of slicing ~35 clean events per bank nine ways. Use section 1 and 4 for decisions; use this table only as colour.
4. Saturday-results special case (Monday reaction)
| Bank | Surprise | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability | Nifty gap | Stock gap | BN Monday close-to-close |
|---|
| Axis Bank | inline | 2 | -0.60% | -0.97 … -0.24 | – … – | FAIL | -0.20% | -3.51% | -0.34% |
| HDFC Bank | beat | 5 | +0.49% | +0.28 … +0.51 | -0.00 … +1.06 | FAIL | +0.41% | +1.06% | -0.25% |
| HDFC Bank | inline | 17 | +0.24% | -0.23 … +0.77 | -0.03 … +0.59 | WATCH | +0.11% | +0.60% | +0.03% |
| HDFC Bank | miss | 9 | +1.20% | -0.51 … +1.57 | -0.51 … +1.57 | FAIL | +0.86% | +1.70% | -0.03% |
| ICICI Bank | beat | 15 | +0.24% | +0.04 … +0.51 | +0.08 … +0.49 | WATCH | +0.16% | +0.87% | +0.10% |
| ICICI Bank | inline | 10 | +0.58% | +0.28 … +1.26 | +0.28 … +1.38 | WATCH | +0.44% | +1.20% | +0.86% |
| ICICI Bank | miss | 5 | +0.88% | -0.00 … +1.33 | -0.25 … +1.87 | FAIL | +0.21% | +0.98% | -0.24% |
| Kotak Bank | beat | 7 | +0.37% | +0.13 … +0.71 | +0.12 … +0.90 | FAIL | +0.33% | -1.03% | +0.03% |
| Kotak Bank | inline | 5 | +0.17% | -0.09 … +0.23 | -0.18 … +0.60 | FAIL | +0.19% | -0.68% | +0.72% |
| Kotak Bank | miss | 5 | +0.08% | -0.23 … +0.51 | -0.56 … +0.51 | FAIL | -0.22% | -0.61% | -0.25% |
| SBI | beat | 3 | +1.14% | +0.52 … +1.15 | -0.09 … +1.17 | FAIL | +0.52% | +3.21% | +0.91% |
| SBI | inline | 4 | -0.26% | -0.75 … +0.16 | -1.00 … +0.71 | FAIL | -0.02% | -0.05% | -1.18% |
| SBI | miss | 1 | -0.19% | -0.19 … -0.19 | – … – | FAIL | +0.02% | -1.33% | +0.84% |
Weekends with ≥2 banks reporting Saturday
| Class | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability | Nifty gap med | BN Monday c-c med |
|---|
| mixed | 3 | +0.08% | +0.04 … +0.30 | +0.00 … +0.51 | FAIL | -0.16% | -0.25% |
| net beat | 10 | +0.26% | +0.15 … +0.80 | +0.12 … +0.80 | WATCH | +0.23% | +0.29% |
| net miss | 2 | +0.76% | +0.26 … +1.25 | – … – | FAIL | +0.05% | -0.74% |
Average-surprise vs Monday gap: ρ=0.22 (p=0.4273, n=15).
| Monday | Banks (surprise) | Avg surprise | BN gap | Nifty gap | BN 1st hr (from open) | BN Monday c-c |
|---|
| 2022-07-25 | ICICI Bank(8.9%), Kotak Bank(-3.4%) | +2.7% | +0.08% | -0.34% | -0.21 | -0.03% |
| 2022-10-24 | ICICI Bank(-0.2%), Kotak Bank(9.3%) | +4.5% | +1.38% | +0.91% | – | +1.28% |
| 2023-01-23 | ICICI Bank(-0.7%), Kotak Bank(7.2%) | +3.2% | +0.90% | +0.50% | +0.08 | +0.74% |
| 2023-07-24 | ICICI Bank(3.8%), Kotak Bank(5.7%) | +4.8% | +0.12% | +0.02% | -0.15 | -0.33% |
| 2023-10-23 | ICICI Bank(5.9%), Kotak Bank(1.0%) | +3.5% | +0.23% | -0.11% | -0.35 | -1.31% |
| 2024-01-23 | ICICI Bank(1.8%), Kotak Bank(-4.7%) | -1.4% | +1.74% | +0.44% | -1.08 | -1.50% |
| 2024-07-22 | HDFC Bank(0.2%), Kotak Bank(-19.5%) | -9.7% | -0.23% | -0.35% | +0.42 | +0.03% |
| 2024-10-21 | HDFC Bank(3.2%), Kotak Bank(-4.3%) | -0.5% | +0.51% | +0.41% | -0.39 | -0.25% |
| 2025-04-21 | HDFC Bank(1.6%), ICICI Bank(4.1%) | +2.8% | +1.11% | +0.41% | +0.50 | +1.87% |
| 2025-05-05 | Kotak Bank(0.8%), SBI(4.4%) | +2.6% | -0.09% | +0.30% | -0.05 | -0.36% |
| 2025-07-21 | HDFC Bank(4.0%), ICICI Bank(4.3%) | +4.2% | +0.49% | +0.12% | +0.29 | +1.19% |
| 2025-10-20 | HDFC Bank(7.1%), ICICI Bank(0.5%) | +3.8% | +0.28% | +0.45% | +0.32 | +0.55% |
| 2026-01-19 | HDFC Bank(15.2%), ICICI Bank(-9.1%) | +3.0% | -0.00% | -0.16% | -0.71 | -0.34% |
| 2026-04-20 | HDFC Bank(0.2%), ICICI Bank(5.6%) | +2.9% | +0.24% | +0.16% | +0.21 | +0.03% |
| 2026-07-20 | Axis Bank(-0.6%), HDFC Bank(-1.3%), ICICI Bank(9.4%), Kotak Bank(3.4%) | +2.7% | -1.34% | -0.59% | -0.07 | -0.98% |
5. Context splits (clean events, Bank Nifty gap)
| Context | Surprise | n | median | IQR (25–75%) | 90% CI of median | reliability |
|---|
| VIX<18 | beat | 49 | +0.23% | -0.00 … +0.54 | +0.12 … +0.49 | PASS |
| VIX<18 | inline | 41 | +0.28% | -0.29 … +0.71 | +0.09 … +0.47 | PASS |
| VIX<18 | miss | 40 | -0.02% | -0.64 … +0.32 | -0.38 … +0.16 | WATCH |
| VIX>=18 | beat | 16 | +0.14% | -0.03 … +0.89 | +0.00 … +0.85 | WATCH |
| VIX>=18 | inline | 13 | +0.07% | -0.33 … +0.23 | -0.33 … +0.23 | WATCH |
| VIX>=18 | miss | 17 | +0.44% | +0.09 … +1.57 | +0.12 … +1.55 | WATCH |
| BN 5d down>1% | beat | 19 | +0.23% | -0.09 … +0.76 | +0.14 … +0.54 | WATCH |
| BN 5d down>1% | inline | 12 | -0.05% | -0.93 … +0.47 | -0.85 … +0.46 | WATCH |
| BN 5d down>1% | miss | 23 | +0.26% | -0.22 … +1.27 | +0.12 … +0.88 | PASS |
| BN 5d flat | beat | 16 | +0.49% | -0.06 … +0.84 | -0.03 … +0.67 | WATCH |
| BN 5d flat | inline | 20 | +0.11% | -0.50 … +0.48 | -0.23 … +0.28 | WATCH |
| BN 5d flat | miss | 13 | -0.16% | -0.56 … +0.09 | -0.56 … +0.09 | WATCH |
| BN 5d up>1% | beat | 30 | +0.17% | +0.04 … +0.50 | +0.10 … +0.34 | PASS |
| BN 5d up>1% | inline | 22 | +0.31% | +0.04 … +1.08 | +0.22 … +0.77 | PASS |
| BN 5d up>1% | miss | 21 | +0.08% | -0.71 … +0.60 | -0.67 … +0.51 | WATCH |
Method & terms
- Gap: next-session open ÷ prior close − 1. First hour: 09:15 open → 10:14 close (1-minute data, 2022+ only, n=93 events). Held: at 10:15 the index is still on the gap's side of prior close with ≥50% of the gap intact (gaps <0.1% excluded). Close-to-close: reaction-session close vs previous close.
- EPS surprise: Yahoo Finance consensus EPS vs reported EPS (free, via yfinance). Consensus may be thinner/older for early years. Not PAT, NII or NIM; NII/NIM history not obtainable free at scale — stated limitation.
- Result dates: Yahoo earnings dates (time-of-day unreliable). Verified with volume: 91% of reaction sessions show stock volume >1.3× its 20-day median. Weekday releases are classed intraday vs after-close by which day had higher volume. Only weekend/holiday and after-close events count as "clean" for gaps (n=176); Saturday releases n=88.
- Median, IQR: middle value and middle-50% range. 90% CI: bootstrap interval for the median. PASS = n≥20 and CI excludes 0; WATCH = n≥10; FAIL = n<10 (anecdotal).
- Not included: FII flows (no free clean daily history pulled), NIM/NII history, Yes Bank. US10y (^TNX) and India VIX were collected per event (in events.csv) but had no clear effect in this sample. Multiple testing: many cells were examined; expect some spurious "PASS".
- Data: yfinance daily OHLC (^NSEBANK, ^NSEI, stocks, ^INDIAVIX, ^TNX); Upstox 1-minute index candles (read-only); news previews from internal feed 16 Oct 2026.
Research, not advice. Past reactions do not guarantee future ones.