Opening 30-minute move > 150 points: does it hold?
Question: If Nifty moves more than 150 points from the open in the first 30 minutes, how often does it stay beyond ±150 for the rest of the day?
Nifty 50 spot 1m, 2022-01-03 → 2026-10-09 (1177 sessions). Generated 2026-10-10 00:16 IST. Base history: /nifty-s3 1m parquet (to 2026-10-06). Appended from live Upstox feed / indicator backfill: 2026-10-07, 2026-10-08, 2026-10-09 (live 1m bars can differ from exchange-historical bars by a few points; cross-check vs Upstox historical API: Oct 7 and Oct 9 key prices identical, Oct 8 09:15 open 22590.85 live vs 22599.05 historical, which changes no trigger at 150; none of Oct 7-9 triggered).
This is descriptive conditional probability on past data (in-sample), not a tested trading edge:
no transaction costs, slippage, position sizing or out-of-sample validation. Sample sizes are small,
so read the confidence intervals, not just the point estimates.
19 ↑ / 19 ↓trigger days of 1177 sessions
55%(a) held ±150 at close [40%–70%]
21%(b) never re-crossed after 09:45 [11%–36%]
79%(c) closed beyond open, same side [64%–89%]
-15 ptsmedian extra after 09:45 ((d) continued 47%)
119 ptsmedian max adverse move after 09:45
1. Probabilities with 95% CIs — primary trigger
Close-based: |09:44 close − 09:15 open| > threshold
| Outcome | UP (n=19) | DOWN (n=19) | ALL (n=38) |
|---|---|---|---|
| (a) held ±150 at close | 58% [36–77] (11/19) | 53% [32–73] (10/19) | 55% [40–70] (21/38) |
| (b) never re-crossed ±150 after 09:45 | 16% [6–38] (3/19) | 26% [12–49] (5/19) | 21% [11–36] (8/38) |
| (c) closed beyond open, same direction | 79% [57–91] (15/19) | 79% [57–91] (15/19) | 79% [64–89] (30/38) |
| (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | 47% [27–68] (9/19) | 47% [27–68] (9/19) | 47% [32–63] (18/38) |
Base rates (all sessions, for comparison)
| Unconditional | rate [95% CI] (k/n) |
|---|---|
| Days with |30-min move| > 150 (trigger frequency) | 3% [2–4] (38/1177) |
| Days closing more than 150 pts from the open (either side) | 25% [23–28] (294/1177) |
| Days closing beyond open ±150 in the 30-min move's direction (unconditional analogue of a) | 20% [18–22] (236/1176) |
| Days closing above the open | 49% [46–51] (572/1177) |
| Days closing on the same side of the open as the 30-min move, any size (analogue of c) | 67% [65–70] (791/1176) |
| Days where close is further than the 09:44 price in the 30-min move's direction (analogue of d) | 53% [51–56] (628/1176) |
2. Every trigger day's path (points from the 09:15 open)
Green = closed beyond ±150 (outcome a), red = did not. Dashed lines = ±150; dotted blue = 09:45. Interactive version below (hover for date; click legend items to hide).
Continuation vs reversal after 09:45 (d)
Continuation after 09:45 (points, in the move's direction): min -641, 25th pct -200, median -15, 75th pct +77, max +588. Of 38 trigger days, 30 re-crossed the ±150 level after 09:45; median first re-cross time 10:01 IST (23 of them by 10:15).
3. Every case (38)
a/b/c/d as defined below. Close − open is signed (negative = below open). Continuation, MFE and MAE are measured from the 09:44 close in the move's direction. Click a header to sort.
| Date | Dir | a | b | c | d | 30m move | Close − open | Cont. after 09:45 | First re-cross | MFE after 09:45 | MAE after 09:45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-19 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -164.6 | -187.8 | +23.1 | 09:45 | +79.3 | +100.6 |
| 2022-04-04 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +166.7 | +226.9 | +60.3 | 11:36 | +111.5 | +87.2 |
| 2022-08-23 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +168.4 | +266.0 | +97.6 | 10:15 | +98.8 | +114.0 |
| 2022-09-14 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +154.8 | +229.5 | +74.7 | 09:52 | +164.7 | +42.5 |
| 2023-01-31 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -153.2 | -48.9 | -104.3 | 09:45 | +39.2 | +120.0 |
| 2023-04-17 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -226.4 | -158.9 | -67.5 | 15:05 | +62.2 | +80.3 |
| 2024-01-17 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +165.2 | -70.0 | -235.2 | 09:56 | +24.4 | +262.0 |
| 2024-05-13 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -170.6 | +91.5 | -262.0 | 09:45 | +36.4 | +274.2 |
| 2024-06-03 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -232.2 | -31.9 | -200.2 | 10:01 | +43.4 | +202.6 |
| 2024-06-04 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -595.4 | -1183.0 | +587.7 | — | +1302.7 | +296.6 |
| 2024-06-05 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -195.9 | +444.6 | -640.5 | 10:08 | +111.5 | +738.0 |
| 2024-10-03 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +163.9 | -186.8 | -350.8 | 09:54 | +15.5 | +386.4 |
| 2024-10-17 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -177.2 | -277.2 | +100.0 | — | +121.3 | +10.4 |
| 2024-10-21 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -183.9 | -216.7 | +32.8 | 10:03 | +92.7 | +106.7 |
| 2024-11-04 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -246.0 | -324.8 | +78.8 | — | +253.6 | +3.5 |
| 2024-11-18 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -236.9 | -140.0 | -97.0 | 10:03 | +17.9 | +196.9 |
| 2024-11-19 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +173.1 | -60.9 | -233.9 | 09:49 | +78.0 | +237.8 |
| 2024-11-21 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -166.8 | -141.7 | -25.1 | 09:45 | +31.9 | +54.9 |
| 2025-02-28 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -171.7 | -306.0 | +134.3 | 10:19 | +156.8 | +38.8 |
| 2025-03-05 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +164.6 | +273.6 | +109.0 | 10:16 | +157.3 | +26.5 |
| 2025-03-06 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -161.2 | +52.9 | -214.1 | 09:45 | +69.3 | +241.3 |
| 2025-03-17 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +200.1 | +162.1 | -38.0 | 10:16 | +7.2 | +111.2 |
| 2025-04-01 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +204.0 | -161.4 | -365.4 | 10:01 | +8.2 | +408.7 |
| 2025-04-07 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +263.3 | +479.6 | +216.3 | 10:15 | +232.3 | +224.8 |
| 2025-04-11 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +153.6 | +149.1 | -4.5 | 09:45 | +74.9 | +113.0 |
| 2025-05-02 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +217.9 | +1.8 | -216.2 | 10:53 | +59.3 | +291.4 |
| 2025-05-07 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +169.6 | +176.0 | +6.5 | 09:45 | +27.6 | +117.8 |
| 2025-05-09 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +154.8 | +102.9 | -51.9 | 09:45 | +30.8 | +141.3 |
| 2025-05-12 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +171.6 | +500.1 | +328.6 | — | +353.1 | +0.0 |
| 2025-11-26 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +181.2 | +360.6 | +179.4 | — | +191.1 | +0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -167.2 | -183.2 | +16.0 | 09:45 | +126.9 | +96.8 |
| 2026-02-03 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -580.8 | -593.2 | +12.5 | — | +86.0 | +135.8 |
| 2026-03-02 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +304.4 | +190.5 | -113.9 | 11:27 | +25.7 | +360.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +206.5 | +244.6 | +38.1 | — | +194.4 | +24.4 |
| 2026-04-06 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -160.1 | +179.2 | -339.2 | 09:45 | +77.2 | +378.1 |
| 2026-05-04 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +213.1 | +60.2 | -152.8 | 10:11 | +7.2 | +271.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -161.7 | -114.3 | -47.4 | 09:56 | +41.1 | +128.2 |
| 2026-09-28 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -207.5 | -284.6 | +77.2 | — | +95.2 | +29.1 |
4. Threshold sweep — is 150 special?
| T | up | down | % of days | (a) held ±T at close | (b) never re-crossed ±T after 09:45 | (c) closed beyond open, same direction | (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | median cont. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 108 | 152 | 22.1% | 62% [55–67] (160/260) | 23% [18–28] (59/260) | 77% [72–82] (201/260) | 52% [45–58] (134/260) | +9.4 |
| 100 | 58 | 79 | 11.6% | 56% [48–64] (77/137) | 18% [12–25] (24/137) | 76% [68–82] (104/137) | 47% [39–56] (65/137) | -12.0 |
| 125 | 26 | 43 | 5.9% | 54% [42–65] (37/69) | 17% [10–28] (12/69) | 74% [62–83] (51/69) | 45% [34–57] (31/69) | -25.1 |
| 150 | 19 | 19 | 3.2% | 55% [40–70] (21/38) | 21% [11–36] (8/38) | 79% [64–89] (30/38) | 47% [32–63] (18/38) | -14.8 |
| 200 | 7 | 7 | 1.2% | 43% [21–67] (6/14) | 21% [8–48] (3/14) | 93% [69–99] (13/14) | 43% [21–67] (6/14) | -52.7 |
| 250 | 2 | 2 | 0.3% | 75% [30–95] (3/4) | 50% [15–85] (2/4) | 100% [51–100] (4/4) | 75% [30–95] (3/4) | +114.4 |
By year
| Year | cases | up | down | (a) held ±150 at close | (b) never re-crossed ±150 after 09:45 | (c) closed beyond open, same direction | (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | median cont. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 ⚠ <10 cases | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% [51–100] (4/4) | 0% [0–49] (0/4) | 100% [51–100] (4/4) | 100% [51–100] (4/4) | +67.5 |
| 2023 ⚠ <10 cases | 2 | 0 | 2 | 50% [9–91] (1/2) | 0% [0–66] (0/2) | 100% [34–100] (2/2) | 0% [0–66] (0/2) | -85.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 33% [14–61] (4/12) | 25% [9–53] (3/12) | 58% [32–81] (7/12) | 33% [14–61] (4/12) | -148.6 |
| 2025 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 58% [32–81] (7/12) | 17% [5–45] (2/12) | 83% [55–95] (10/12) | 50% [25–75] (6/12) | +1.0 |
| 2026 ⚠ <10 cases | 8 | 3 | 5 | 62% [31–86] (5/8) | 38% [14–69] (3/8) | 88% [53–98] (7/8) | 50% [22–78] (4/8) | -17.4 |
Secondary view: Excursion-based: max (high−open) or (open−low) in 09:15–09:44 > threshold
| Outcome | UP (n=30) | DOWN (n=45) | ALL (n=75) |
|---|---|---|---|
| (a) held ±150 at close | 47% [30–64] (14/30) | 51% [37–65] (23/45) | 49% [38–60] (37/75) |
| (b) never re-crossed ±150 after 09:45 | 10% [3–26] (3/30) | 11% [5–23] (5/45) | 11% [6–20] (8/75) |
| (c) closed beyond open, same direction | 73% [56–86] (22/30) | 76% [61–86] (34/45) | 75% [64–83] (56/75) |
| (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | 43% [27–61] (13/30) | 49% [35–63] (22/45) | 47% [36–58] (35/75) |
By year
| Year | cases | up | down | (a) held ±150 at close | (b) never re-crossed ±150 after 09:45 | (c) closed beyond open, same direction | (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | median cont. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 80% [49–94] (8/10) | 0% [0–28] (0/10) | 80% [49–94] (8/10) | 80% [49–94] (8/10) | +56.2 |
| 2023 ⚠ <10 cases | 4 | 1 | 3 | 50% [15–85] (2/4) | 0% [0–49] (0/4) | 100% [51–100] (4/4) | 50% [15–85] (2/4) | -15.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 31% [14–56] (5/16) | 19% [7–43] (3/16) | 56% [33–77] (9/16) | 31% [14–56] (5/16) | -106.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 54% [35–72] (13/24) | 8% [2–26] (2/24) | 83% [64–93] (20/24) | 50% [31–69] (12/24) | +1.0 |
| 2026 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 43% [24–63] (9/21) | 14% [5–35] (3/21) | 71% [50–86] (15/21) | 38% [21–59] (8/21) | -94.3 |
Threshold sweep
| T | up | down | % of days | (a) held ±T at close | (b) never re-crossed ±T after 09:45 | (c) closed beyond open, same direction | (d) close beyond 09:44 price (continued) | median cont. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 200 | 292 | 41.8% | 51% [47–56] (252/492) | 12% [9–15] (58/492) | 71% [67–75] (349/492) | 52% [48–57] (258/492) | +8.0 |
| 100 | 108 | 150 | 21.9% | 45% [39–51] (117/258) | 9% [6–13] (24/258) | 72% [66–77] (186/258) | 48% [42–55] (125/258) | -3.6 |
| 125 | 51 | 81 | 11.2% | 44% [36–52] (58/132) | 9% [5–15] (12/132) | 71% [63–78] (94/132) | 45% [36–53] (59/132) | -23.4 |
| 150 | 30 | 45 | 6.4% | 49% [38–60] (37/75) | 11% [6–20] (8/75) | 75% [64–83] (56/75) | 47% [36–58] (35/75) | -25.1 |
| 200 | 12 | 10 | 1.9% | 36% [20–57] (8/22) | 14% [5–33] (3/22) | 86% [67–95] (19/22) | 41% [23–61] (9/22) | -44.9 |
| 250 | 2 | 5 | 0.6% | 57% [25–84] (4/7) | 29% [8–64] (2/7) | 86% [49–97] (6/7) | 57% [25–84] (4/7) | +12.5 |
Every case (75)
| Date | Dir | a | b | c | d | 30m move | Close − open | Cont. after 09:45 | First re-cross | MFE after 09:45 | MAE after 09:45 | 30m excursion | first touch | both sides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-19 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -164.6 | -187.8 | +23.1 | 09:45 | +79.3 | +100.6 | +178.4 | 09:38 | |
| 2022-01-24 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -104.8 | -462.7 | +357.9 | 09:45 | +471.9 | +45.5 | +170.4 | 09:36 | |
| 2022-01-25 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +111.5 | +265.8 | -154.3 | 09:45 | +107.5 | +195.9 | +163.7 | 09:19 | |
| 2022-02-14 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -100.8 | -256.4 | +155.7 | 09:45 | +165.3 | +107.4 | +157.2 | 09:20 | |
| 2022-02-24 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +1.4 | -331.1 | -332.6 | 09:45 | +106.2 | +345.9 | +153.4 | 09:17 | |
| 2022-03-10 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -138.8 | -190.8 | +52.0 | 09:45 | +170.2 | +135.9 | +152.2 | 09:15 | |
| 2022-04-04 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +166.7 | +226.9 | +60.3 | 11:36 | +111.5 | +87.2 | +168.2 | 09:35 | |
| 2022-05-12 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -145.8 | -194.7 | +48.9 | 09:45 | +137.9 | +50.6 | +171.3 | 09:38 | |
| 2022-08-23 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +168.4 | +266.0 | +97.6 | 10:15 | +98.8 | +114.0 | +179.9 | 09:31 | |
| 2022-09-14 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +154.8 | +229.5 | +74.7 | 09:52 | +164.7 | +42.5 | +160.8 | 09:28 | |
| 2023-01-27 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -115.1 | -269.3 | +154.2 | 09:45 | +267.9 | +18.8 | +160.9 | 09:30 | |
| 2023-01-30 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +88.5 | +125.3 | +36.8 | 09:45 | +44.7 | +224.2 | +166.6 | 09:30 | |
| 2023-01-31 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -153.2 | -48.9 | -104.3 | 09:45 | +39.2 | +120.0 | +159.3 | 09:34 | |
| 2023-04-17 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -226.4 | -158.9 | -67.5 | 15:05 | +62.2 | +80.3 | +242.3 | 09:15 | |
| 2024-01-17 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +165.2 | -70.0 | -235.2 | 09:56 | +24.4 | +262.0 | +204.2 | 09:16 | |
| 2024-02-02 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +124.5 | +40.5 | -84.0 | 09:45 | +189.5 | +131.8 | +150.7 | 09:34 | |
| 2024-05-13 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -170.6 | +91.5 | -262.0 | 09:45 | +36.4 | +274.2 | +176.3 | 09:42 | |
| 2024-06-03 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -232.2 | -31.9 | -200.2 | 10:01 | +43.4 | +202.6 | +255.2 | 09:15 | |
| 2024-06-04 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -595.4 | -1183.0 | +587.7 | — | +1302.7 | +296.6 | +789.6 | 09:15 | |
| 2024-06-05 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -195.9 | +444.6 | -640.5 | 10:08 | +111.5 | +738.0 | +336.4 | 09:19 | |
| 2024-06-06 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -65.8 | +50.5 | -116.2 | 09:45 | +87.7 | +177.3 | +156.0 | 09:21 | |
| 2024-08-06 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +74.3 | -156.8 | -231.2 | 09:45 | +83.6 | +303.8 | +192.8 | 09:15 | |
| 2024-10-03 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +163.9 | -186.8 | -350.8 | 09:54 | +15.5 | +386.4 | +186.6 | 09:15 | |
| 2024-10-17 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -177.2 | -277.2 | +100.0 | — | +121.3 | +10.4 | +188.3 | 09:38 | |
| 2024-10-21 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -183.9 | -216.7 | +32.8 | 10:03 | +92.7 | +106.7 | +209.4 | 09:35 | |
| 2024-11-04 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -246.0 | -324.8 | +78.8 | — | +253.6 | +3.5 | +259.6 | 09:16 | |
| 2024-11-07 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -126.5 | -295.0 | +168.6 | 09:45 | +184.1 | +19.3 | +163.2 | 09:37 | |
| 2024-11-18 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -236.9 | -140.0 | -97.0 | 10:03 | +17.9 | +196.9 | +238.8 | 09:33 | |
| 2024-11-19 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +173.1 | -60.9 | -233.9 | 09:49 | +78.0 | +237.8 | +173.1 | 09:35 | |
| 2024-11-21 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -166.8 | -141.7 | -25.1 | 09:45 | +31.9 | +54.9 | +225.3 | 09:32 | |
| 2025-02-12 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -139.0 | +7.0 | -146.0 | 09:45 | +113.5 | +232.9 | +159.1 | 09:40 | |
| 2025-02-28 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -171.7 | -306.0 | +134.3 | 10:19 | +156.8 | +38.8 | +184.3 | 09:34 | |
| 2025-03-05 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +164.6 | +273.6 | +109.0 | 10:16 | +157.3 | +26.5 | +177.2 | 09:41 | |
| 2025-03-06 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -161.2 | +52.9 | -214.1 | 09:45 | +69.3 | +241.3 | +178.4 | 09:31 | |
| 2025-03-17 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +200.1 | +162.1 | -38.0 | 10:16 | +7.2 | +111.2 | +223.8 | 09:19 | |
| 2025-04-01 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +204.0 | -161.4 | -365.4 | 10:01 | +8.2 | +408.7 | +224.1 | 09:33 | |
| 2025-04-04 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -128.2 | -278.4 | +150.2 | 09:45 | +204.8 | +12.0 | +161.0 | 09:24 | |
| 2025-04-07 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +263.3 | +479.6 | +216.3 | 10:15 | +232.3 | +224.8 | +431.6 | 09:15 | |
| 2025-04-11 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +153.6 | +149.1 | -4.5 | 09:45 | +74.9 | +113.0 | +163.9 | 09:37 | |
| 2025-04-15 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -57.4 | -24.2 | -33.1 | 09:45 | +19.3 | +46.1 | +161.3 | 09:15 | |
| 2025-04-28 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +106.3 | +242.7 | +136.3 | 09:45 | +178.5 | +2.3 | +157.6 | 09:37 | |
| 2025-05-02 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +217.9 | +1.8 | -216.2 | 10:53 | +59.3 | +291.4 | +239.3 | 09:26 | |
| 2025-05-07 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +169.6 | +176.0 | +6.5 | 09:45 | +27.6 | +117.8 | +216.3 | 09:19 | |
| 2025-05-09 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +154.8 | +102.9 | -51.9 | 09:45 | +30.8 | +141.3 | +228.5 | 09:15 | |
| 2025-05-12 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +171.6 | +500.1 | +328.6 | — | +353.1 | +0.0 | +213.5 | 09:20 | |
| 2025-05-13 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -118.8 | -270.4 | +151.6 | 09:45 | +197.7 | +92.6 | +188.4 | 09:31 | |
| 2025-05-15 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -147.6 | +340.9 | -488.4 | 09:45 | +52.5 | +569.4 | +156.2 | 09:44 | |
| 2025-05-22 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -144.0 | -97.0 | -47.0 | 09:45 | +127.5 | +57.2 | +192.3 | 09:24 | |
| 2025-05-27 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -130.9 | -119.0 | -12.0 | 09:45 | +121.6 | +237.2 | +190.9 | 09:21 | |
| 2025-06-03 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -139.5 | -247.9 | +108.4 | 09:45 | +144.7 | +119.7 | +185.0 | 09:30 | |
| 2025-06-13 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +148.2 | +262.6 | +114.3 | 09:45 | +133.2 | +27.8 | +180.2 | 09:21 | |
| 2025-06-18 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +149.4 | +10.4 | -139.1 | 09:45 | +9.8 | +187.3 | +156.1 | 09:36 | |
| 2025-08-28 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -130.1 | -162.7 | +32.6 | 09:45 | +84.1 | +112.2 | +188.6 | 09:22 | |
| 2025-11-26 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +181.2 | +360.6 | +179.4 | — | +191.1 | +0.0 | +182.8 | 09:31 | |
| 2026-01-13 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -167.2 | -183.2 | +16.0 | 09:45 | +126.9 | +96.8 | +187.5 | 09:32 | |
| 2026-02-03 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -580.8 | -593.2 | +12.5 | — | +86.0 | +135.8 | +587.9 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-02-24 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -142.3 | -181.6 | +39.2 | 09:45 | +171.8 | +36.1 | +158.9 | 09:43 | |
| 2026-03-02 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +304.4 | +190.5 | -113.9 | 11:27 | +25.7 | +360.1 | +318.4 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-03-09 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -132.4 | +137.8 | -270.1 | 09:45 | +23.8 | +342.5 | +170.2 | 09:24 | |
| 2026-03-10 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -127.3 | +5.3 | -132.7 | 09:45 | +73.5 | +149.1 | +195.2 | 09:26 | |
| 2026-03-16 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | +124.4 | +239.5 | +115.1 | 09:45 | +261.5 | +285.2 | +168.6 | 09:37 | |
| 2026-03-19 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +73.2 | -109.9 | -183.2 | 09:45 | +46.8 | +340.6 | +180.9 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-03-20 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +118.8 | +24.5 | -94.3 | 09:45 | +116.2 | +161.3 | +209.6 | 09:16 | |
| 2026-03-23 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -118.0 | -331.7 | +213.8 | 09:45 | +235.2 | +0.2 | +189.8 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-03-25 | ▲ up | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | +206.5 | +244.6 | +38.1 | — | +194.4 | +24.4 | +213.7 | 09:27 | |
| 2026-03-27 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | -120.0 | -334.1 | +214.1 | 09:45 | +249.0 | +1.1 | +172.7 | 09:34 | |
| 2026-03-30 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | +109.6 | -170.4 | -280.1 | 09:45 | +30.8 | +375.4 | +164.4 | 09:36 | |
| 2026-04-02 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -119.0 | +317.3 | -436.2 | 09:45 | +81.9 | +517.9 | +174.2 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-04-06 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | -160.1 | +179.2 | -339.2 | 09:45 | +77.2 | +378.1 | +188.6 | 09:17 | |
| 2026-04-20 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -88.8 | -60.6 | -28.1 | 09:45 | +21.6 | +177.9 | +150.2 | 09:16 | |
| 2026-05-04 | ▲ up | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | +213.1 | +60.2 | -152.8 | 10:11 | +7.2 | +271.9 | +226.7 | 09:15 | |
| 2026-06-03 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -147.0 | -19.0 | -128.0 | 09:45 | +117.5 | +190.7 | +171.5 | 09:27 | |
| 2026-06-30 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -161.7 | -114.3 | -47.4 | 09:56 | +41.1 | +128.2 | +170.6 | 09:32 | |
| 2026-09-28 | ▼ down | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | -207.5 | -284.6 | +77.2 | — | +95.2 | +29.1 | +209.4 | 09:22 | |
| 2026-09-29 | ▼ down | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | -119.0 | -16.2 | -102.8 | 09:45 | +41.9 | +139.8 | +162.8 | 09:36 |
Download: cases_excursion30.csv
Definitions
- Data: Nifty 50 spot, 1-minute bars, regular session 09:15–15:29 IST. Bar timestamps are bar-start times; the 09:44 bar closes at 09:45.
- Opening move = close of the 09:44 bar − open of the 09:15 bar (the first 30 minutes).
- Trigger (primary): |opening move| > 150 points; direction up if positive, down if negative.
- Trigger (secondary, excursion): within 09:15–09:44, (high − open) > 150 or (open − low) > 150 at any point. Direction = the side that crossed 150 first (if both crossed on the same bar, the larger excursion). The 09:44 price may already be back inside ±150 on these days.
- Level = open + 150 for up days, open − 150 for down days.
- (a) Held at close: the 15:29 close is still beyond the level (up: close > open+150; down: close < open−150).
- (b) Never re-crossed (strict): from the 09:45 bar to the 15:29 bar, no bar's low (up days) / high (down days) went back through the level. The first re-cross time is the start time of the first bar that did.
- (c) Closed on the same side of the open: close > open (up) / close < open (down), by any amount.
- (d) Continued after 09:45: 15:29 close further in the move's direction than the 09:44 close. Continuation points = direction × (close − 09:44 close); negative = gave back. MFE / MAE after 09:45 = best / worst excursion from the 09:44 close in the move's direction during 09:45–15:29.
- CIs: Wilson 95% intervals. Years with fewer than 10 cases are flagged.
- Sessions included: only days with the 09:15, 09:44 and 15:29 bars, ≥29 of the first 30 minute-bars and ≥300 bars total; special/Muhurat and half-day sessions are dropped.
Dropped sessions: 2024-03-02 (105 bars), 2024-05-18 (105 bars), 2025-10-21 (60 bars). Static page; source: /workspace/nifty-rules/opening-30m-move (rulefinder module).